Fantasy Index

Factoid

Johnny Football

Does Manziel have some sleeper appeal?

I’m not ready to draft him yet, but I find myself being just a little more interested in Johnny Football nowadays. He’s going to run, and the way fantasy football leagues are run, guys who can run tend to be pretty good.

Manziel doesn’t have superior speed. He’s not Michael Vick, and he’s not even as fast as Russell Wilson. But Manziel likes to run and will call his own number around the goal line. He showed this at Texas A&M, and he showed it in his preseason debut, running for 27 yards on 6 carries. I take this as evidence that when he becomes the starter in September or October, there’s a good chance he’ll run for something like 40 yards per game.

Let’s look only at quarterbacks who’ve started at least half of the season in the last 15 years. So, there’s about 32 of those guys each year. Only 32 of those guys (about 7 percent) ran for over 30 yards per game. And of those 32, all but four of them finished that season as top-14 fantasy quarterbacks. That’s using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdown runs, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run yards and 1 for every 20 passing yards. That kind of system is inherently biased in favor of mobile quarterbacks.

Manziel will no doubt struggle as a passer, but check the numbers. Of the 14 guys in the chart below, 14 of them averaged under 200 passing yards per game. Of those 14, 10 of them were still top-14 passers.

I’m not saying you should make Manziel one of the top-20 quarterbacks selected in your league. But once he’s in there, I expect there will be many games where he challenges for top-10 quarterback numbers of the week (even if he’s pretty ugly at times doing it). Tim Tebow, crappy as he was, was the 12th-best fantasy quarterback of the 2011 season.

QUARTERBACKS RUNNING FOR 30 YARDS PER GAME
YearPlayerStP YdsTDPR YdsTDRPPGRank
2006Michael Vick16154.61.2564.9.1320.06
2013Terrelle Pryor9196.2.7861.4.2220.417
2004Michael Vick15154.2.9360.1.2018.716
2011Tim Tebow11150.01.0056.6.4520.312
2012Robert Griffin III15213.31.3354.3.4724.25
2010Michael Vick11258.51.8252.1.8230.51
2002Michael Vick15195.71.0751.8.5322.45
2012Cam Newton16241.81.1946.3.5024.54
2002Donovan McNabb10228.91.7046.0.6026.81
2011Michael Vick13254.11.3845.3.0823.26
2011Cam Newton16253.21.3144.1.8827.84
2006Vince Young13158.9.8540.6.5418.89
2005Michael Vick15160.81.0039.8.4018.67
2000Donovan McNabb16210.31.3139.3.3822.18
2002Daunte Culpepper16240.81.1338.1.6324.22
2001Daunte Culpepper11237.51.2737.8.4524.02
2013Robert Griffin III13246.41.2337.6.0021.311
2000Kordell Stewart11161.01.0036.7.5519.09
2013Cam Newton16211.21.5036.6.3822.57
2000Cade McNown9176.2.7835.9.3317.514
2013Russell Wilson16209.81.6333.7.0620.714
2001Kordell Stewart16194.3.8833.6.3118.412
2012Michael Vick10236.21.2033.2.1020.513
2000Rich Gannon16214.41.7533.1.2522.76
2013Colin Kaepernick16199.81.3132.8.2520.021
1999Doug Flutie15211.41.2731.7.0719.210
2008Tyler Thigpen11213.11.5531.2.1821.08
1999Steve McNair11198.11.0930.6.7321.93
2012Russell Wilson16194.91.6330.6.2520.812
2003Daunte Culpepper14248.51.7930.1.2924.41
2001Donovan McNabb16202.11.5630.1.1320.19
2001Rob Johnson8183.1.6330.1.1315.423

—Ian Allan

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