Part of the process here is going through and playing with the numbers. On Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I make changes on the fly. Justin Hunter, for example, has the big game at New Orleans, so I have to go back in and interpret that. I can increase his projection (perhaps at the same time lowering scoring potential of Kendall Wright and Nate Washington), and maybe that game causes me to slightly improve Jake Locker (he threw a nice fade ball on one of those touchdowns).
Those kind of changes are read and react. You see something, then you go and change your stat projection.
But in the middle of each week, I also like to set aside the business of looking at developments and simply re-examine the numbers. I like to look at each team individually and decide if the numbers are divided up properly. We had Ben Tate down at 13 projected starts a week ago; he got moved up to 14 starts (raising him on our board). And he could potentially change from 55 to 65 to 75 percent of the team’s rushing touchdowns. That kind of thing.
I also look at these things going macro to micro. Forget individual players and just try to forecast the teams. (I have all of the individual players tied to the overall production of their offense, so when the whole team projects to average 20 more yards or 2 more touchdowns, everyone incrementally moves up.)
For this week, I thought I’d invite you the readers into this process. Just now I’m starting to re-work the stats for the Thursday rankings supplement.
I’m not going to get into the yards projections or into the interceptions. I don’t want to make anybody’s head explode. I’ll just do touchdowns – offensive touchdowns.
Starting with passing touchdowns, this is the way I see them sorting out. These are the over-under numbers for each team for touchdown passes. I’ve got Denver and New Orleans at the top, but well down from what they did last year. I’ve got 13 teams averaging over 27 TD passes per year. I’ve got six teams finishing with under 20 touchdown passes. Those are the struggling teams, with quarterbacks and wide receivers finishing a lot lower on our board.
Most of you watch at least your local team really closely. Where on this list do you think I’m going wrong? If anybody raises a good point, I’ll be able to look into it more thoroughly before the revised rankings come out tomorrow.
For TD passes, here are the numbers. I’ve added the season totals for the last three years to give you some perspective.
TD PASSES FOR EACH TEAM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Denver | 20 | 37 | 55 | 37.6 |
New Orleans | 46 | 43 | 39 | 37.0 |
Green Bay | 51 | 40 | 25 | 34.7 |
New England | 39 | 34 | 25 | 32.3 |
Detroit | 41 | 22 | 29 | 30.4 |
Chicago | 18 | 21 | 32 | 29.6 |
Dallas | 33 | 29 | 33 | 29.4 |
Atlanta | 29 | 32 | 26 | 28.6 |
Cincinnati | 21 | 28 | 33 | 28.5 |
Philadelphia | 22 | 18 | 32 | 28.5 |
San Diego | 27 | 26 | 32 | 28.2 |
Seattle | 15 | 27 | 27 | 28.2 |
Arizona | 21 | 11 | 24 | 27.2 |
Pittsburgh | 21 | 27 | 28 | 26.6 |
Indianapolis | 14 | 23 | 23 | 25.8 |
Washington | 19 | 24 | 20 | 24.8 |
Minnesota | 20 | 18 | 18 | 24.0 |
San Francisco | 18 | 23 | 21 | 24.0 |
Baltimore | 21 | 22 | 19 | 22.4 |
Miami | 20 | 13 | 24 | 22.4 |
St. Louis | 9 | 22 | 22 | 22.4 |
Kansas City | 13 | 8 | 24 | 22.2 |
Carolina | 21 | 19 | 24 | 22.1 |
Tennessee | 22 | 17 | 22 | 22.1 |
NY Giants | 29 | 26 | 18 | 21.6 |
Jacksonville | 12 | 20 | 16 | 20.3 |
Houston | 20 | 22 | 19 | 19.4 |
Tampa Bay | 17 | 27 | 22 | 18.6 |
Buffalo | 24 | 24 | 16 | 17.3 |
NY Jets | 26 | 14 | 13 | 17.1 |
Cleveland | 16 | 16 | 26 | 17.0 |
Oakland | 20 | 24 | 17 | 17.0 |
Separately, here are the projected rushing touchdowns for each team (along with how they fared in the last three years).
TD RUNS FOR EACH TEAM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
New England | 18 | 25 | 19 | 19.5 |
Philadelphia | 20 | 10 | 19 | 16.8 |
Green Bay | 12 | 9 | 17 | 16.5 |
Seattle | 15 | 16 | 14 | 16.5 |
San Francisco | 14 | 17 | 18 | 15.7 |
Buffalo | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15.0 |
Cincinnati | 10 | 11 | 14 | 15.0 |
Denver | 11 | 12 | 16 | 15.0 |
NY Jets | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15.0 |
Minnesota | 18 | 16 | 23 | 14.4 |
New Orleans | 16 | 10 | 10 | 14.4 |
Kansas City | 5 | 9 | 17 | 14.1 |
Carolina | 26 | 21 | 14 | 13.9 |
Indianapolis | 8 | 11 | 15 | 13.1 |
Washington | 8 | 22 | 14 | 12.8 |
Baltimore | 15 | 17 | 7 | 12.0 |
Chicago | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12.0 |
Miami | 11 | 15 | 8 | 12.0 |
Pittsburgh | 13 | 8 | 9 | 12.0 |
Tennessee | 8 | 10 | 16 | 12.0 |
San Diego | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11.8 |
Detroit | 9 | 17 | 15 | 11.7 |
Atlanta | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11.4 |
Oakland | 16 | 4 | 16 | 11.2 |
St. Louis | 7 | 5 | 10 | 11.2 |
Arizona | 12 | 10 | 12 | 10.9 |
Dallas | 5 | 8 | 12 | 10.7 |
NY Giants | 17 | 18 | 11 | 10.6 |
Tampa Bay | 9 | 13 | 6 | 10.4 |
Houston | 18 | 19 | 7 | 10.1 |
Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 4 | 9.9 |
Jacksonville | 9 | 5 | 7 | 9.9 |
Please look over these and let me know where you think I’m on the wrong track. I won’t necessarily agree with your opinion, but it could cause me to go back and further test a conclusion or assumption.
—Ian Allan