Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this definitely above average edition: Is playing without Sproles hurting Brees' production? Who is more valuable -- Khiry Robinson or Mark Ingram? Is Ray Rice worth a fantasy roster spot? And a sneak peek at the future of fantasy football.
Question 1
After watching Darren Sproles rack up the yardage on Monday night, it occurred to me that Drew Brees' passing numbers may take a significant dive this season. Sproles had several huge receiving games with the Saints, and while Pierre Thomas has great hands out of the backfield, he doesn't have that big-play ability that Sproles showcases. Thoughts?
BRYAN BERTSCH (Minneapolis, MN)
Sproles looks pretty damn fast in that offense, doesn’t he? He’s making those guys who claim that you should never trust a 30-year-old running back look bad (Sproles is 31). But I wouldn’t worry about Brees too much. He’s production has been down a little, but he’s been playing on the road. He’s better inside the dome, and he’ll confirm that on Sunday. He’s had a lot of productive games without Sproles in the past. I just ran the numbers on how Brees has performed recently when either Sproles has been out or has been held under 30 receiving yards (not much of a factor). In the last 16 of those games (an NFL season’s worth), Brees has averaged 305 passing yards, with 42 TDs. So he’s been down a little in yards (he’s been over 340 yards in his Sproles-on games the last two years) but the touchdowns have been right on schedule.
| BREES WITHOUT MUCH SPROLES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Yards | TD |
| 2011 Car. | 389 | 5 |
| 2012 K.C. | 240 | 2 |
| 2012 S.D. | 370 | 4 |
| 2012 Phil. | 239 | 2 |
| 2012 Atl. | 298 | 3 |
| 2012 at Oak. | 219 | 3 |
| 2012 at NYG | 354 | 1 |
| 2012 T.B. | 307 | 4 |
| 2013 Buff. | 332 | 5 |
| 2013 at NYJ | 382 | 2 |
| 2013 S.F. | 305 | 1 |
| 2013 at Atl. | 278 | 2 |
| 2013 Car. | 313 | 4 |
| 2013 at Car. | 281 | 1 |
| 2014 at Atl. | 333 | 1 |
| 2014 at Cle. | 237 | 2 |
Question 2
Question on your Mark Ingram thought process. On the latest re-drafter for TD-only, you have Khiry Robinson ranked higher than Ingram. From what I've heard, Inram is out through NO's bye Week 6. This would mean he would be back as a starter for their final 11 games. This would put Robinson on track to start the next 3 games, before moving back to his secondary role. Curious why you value 3 starts and 11 games as a back-up from Robinson more than 11 starts from Ingram? Are you concerned Ingram will not pick up where he left off when he returns?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
Well, Robinson’s playing right now. He’s got three good games coming up – Vikings, Cowboys, Bucs – and two of those are at home. Those three games are worth more, I think, then three games in November and December. And when Robinson is playing his three games, it’s basically Robinson and Thomas. When Ingram returns, it should be more of an Ingram-Robinson-Thomas backfield. Even removing the time element, I would rather have Robinson against these three teams than any five-game stretch of Ingram, giving that it’s then a three-man rotation. Remember the Atlanta game? Robinson had a 1-yard touchdown, and they used him on another play from the 1. I’m not sure, but I think they might like him better than Ingram as their main goal-line guy. Working in Ingram’s behalf is the reality that he seems to be a much better running back than Robinson right now. He’s running angry, consistently breaking tackles. Robinson to me hasn’t played nearly as well or run as hard as he was late last year. It’s close, I think, and the answer could vary for different fantasy teams. If you need production right now, I would go with Robinson. If you have a couple of starting running backs that you’re comfortable with, then probably smarter to go with Ingram.
Question 3
Ray Rice back after 6 weeks? When they first showed the video I thought no way! He's done for the year, at least. But with every other incident that happens in the NFL the better it looks for Rice. If a six-game suspension for the first offense is what the NFL is going with for domestic violence then it seems to me that Rice will be back after 6 games. I've kept him on a 12 team 20 player roster league just to see how this will play out and I'm starting to think I made the right move. What's your take Ian on the suspension part and do the Ravens take him back or does he end up with another team? And if so who are some likely teams to be interested?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
When you start looking at it legally, it sure seems like Rice should allowed back in. He was suspended for two games in July. Everyone at that time knew that he had punched his wife. Since that time, he’s done everything that’s been asked of him. No other incidents that anyone is aware of. So how does the NFL justifying re-opening that case and expanding past two games? It’s kind of a double jeopardy issue. And with the league laying out a policy of six games for a domestic incident, how would it also justifying suspending Rice past six games? In his press release announcing the new standards, Roger Goodell indicated that some players could even be suspended more than six games, but Rice doesn’t meet any of conditions – which including using a weapon or striking a pregnant woman. The issue, I think, is whether there’s a team that’s willing to take on the negative PR of signing him in October or November, while this issue is still fresh. And is Rice good enough to merit that kind of circus? He was pretty mediocre last year. Bob Kraft has already come out and said the Patriots won’t touch him. But all it takes is one. I would guess that Rice most likely will re-join the league in the offseason, but I think there’s enough of a 2014 chance that he should probably be stashed away with a roster spot in most 12-team leagues.
Question 4
Hi Ian...the Brandon Marshall situation on Sunday night got me to thinking of a rule change that might help fantasy leagues: give owners the option of leaving one starting slot blank when lineups are submitted each week; in most leagues, lineups lock before the early kickoffs on Sunday. If you have a player going on Sunday night or Monday night and his health status is unknown (listed as questionable or doubtful) you could add the player to your lineup if he's declared active prior to kickoff...as was the case with Marshall. There would still be risk involved--if the player is declared inactive, you'd be stuck with zero points from that starting slot--but at least your decision would be based on complete information, as opposed to taking a guess on Sunday morning. Your thoughts?
Mike Fimea (Meadow Vista, CA)
I’m guessing, but I think that the standard in most leagues is to allow guys to change their rosters anytime they want. The Bears, for example, are playing on Monday night this week. In the leagues I play in, I could have Brandon Marshall in my lineup, and if it ends up he’s declared inactive on Monday afternoon, I could switch to Santonio Holmes or Jeremy Kerley if said player was on my fantasy roster. The next level, I think, is to allow in-game changes. That is, if you don’t like the way a player is performing early in his game on Sunday, you could pull him. A.J. Green, for example, left Cincinnati’s game with a toe injury on the first series last week. I believe it would be fair and would enhance our little competition if those with Green could then pull him and stick in maybe Sammy Watkins, who was off to a hot start in Buffalo a little bit north. For fantasy scoring, affected team would receive the first-quarter stats for A.J. Green, and the final three quarter of stats for Watkins. Technology wise, I don’t think this is quite possible yet, but I believe it will be in the future – and maybe a lot sooner than we all realize. Right now, to pull off this stunt in a league, you would have to do it by hand. You would give each fantasy team maybe five “in-game changes”. Five teams during the year, it could contact the commissioner and make a change like Green-Watkins. Then commissioner would have to go in and calculate the points, using the official play-by-play documents. It would be a pain in the ass, but it would be kind of cool also.
Question 5
I've gotta say Ian, I followed your advice & went with a WR-heavy-early approach in my drafts. I know it's only Week 3, but having my 4 teams roll out Edelman-Jeffery-Patterson, Megatron-Edelman-White, Nelson-Edelman-Sanders, and Megatron-Nelson-Brown appears to be paying off, as RB opportunities like C. Johnson, Sproles, Ingram (until this week), Bradshaw, Moreno (until this week), and F. Jackson are there to be had in the middle rounds. Do you think that with the rules being the way they are, we're witnessing a new era of optimal roster construction in fantasy football?
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
For in-season play, I think it’s better to be trying to manufacture production at the running back position. Leagues and rules vary, of course, but guys like Matt Asiata, Knile Davis, Khiry Robinson and Donald Brown show up on the waiver wire. It’s possible to cobble together a running game. You don’t get that at wide receiver. It’s far less likely for guys like Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson to get injured, and when they do, it’s not as if you can then just plug in Cole Beasley and Jeremy Ross and collect a windfall of points. There are exceptions, of course, but in general I think there’s merit to the strategy of drafting big-time receivers and using the later-round picks and waiver claims to hop from running back to running back throughout the season.
Question 6
I really overpaid for a couple TEs – Delanie Walker and Niles Paul – off the waiver wire this week. I've only been carrying one in a PPR league: C. Clay. What are your thoughts on Walker and Paul? Do you see either finishing as top-10? Which is more likely to?
James Smith (Traverse City, MI)
Paul has played well the last two weeks, but once Jordan Reed returns, I think they’ll send him back to the bench. We’ll see what Reed does in practice later today, and I’ll address that in the Friday supplement, but Jay Gruden was saying earlier in the week that he was hopeful that Reed would return this week.
Question 7
Do I bench Montee Ball this week for Knile Davis? We start 3 RBs -- my other two are G. Bernard and D. Murray.
eric pryne (Vashon, WA)
Makes sense to me. Jamaal Charles was hobbling around at practice on Thursday, so you’ll need to confirm that Davis definitely is starting and a full-time player.
Question 8
Wanted your opinion on a trade. I'm giving Shonn Greene or Donald Brown and Vincent Jackson (he lost A.P.) I’m getting Larry Fitzgerald and Jonathan Stewart. PPR league. Should I do the trade with whichever RB he chooses? My other receivers are Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Wes Welker
BRAULIO SANCHEZ (Norwalk, CT)
I think you’re fine with your receivers. The goal is apparently to get better at running back. Bringing in Stewart, I don’t think, helps much in this regard. For the next month, I would much rather have Donald Brown than Jonathan Stewart.
Question 9
I'm sketchy at RB, with D Martin, R Bush, M Asiata, B Tate, and J Hill. I have Demaryius, A Brown, Cooks, J Graham as my core catchers. Red Rocket at QB. THE QUESTION: Do you think a trade where I would part with Antonio Brown and D Martin for AJ Green and say Spiller or Vereen would be wise? Logic is to take the hit of two weeks with Green and after that have him paired with Dalton for point efficiency. Plus big play bonus potential.
Ryan Taft (Damascus, OR)
I would think about it. I would work under the assumption that Green won’t play this week, then he’ll be 100 percent following their Week 4 bye. But it’s almost like Brown is also hurt this week – he’s got to play down at Charlotte, where that defense is really tough. You might be looking to use somebody else in your lineup this week anyway. So looking at Week 4 and on, they’re both going to play 13 games. Brown is a big-time receiver, but I think Green is a notch better. Factoring the probability that maybe the toe thing re-surfaces, I would value Green at about a half point (fantasy point) per game better than Brown over the duration of the season. You’d get him, and you’d be able to get out of the headache of having to wonder and worry about whether Doug Martin can ever get things going.
Question 10
Ian, Standard scoring league. Right now my team is constructed as such - Brees, Forte, Joique/Chris Johnson/Knile, Julio, Garcon/Cordarrelle. There's a POSSIBILITY that I could move Julio and one of the non-Forte RBs for Demarco Murray or, failing that, move Patterson and one of the RBs for Gio Bernard. Is Murray enough of an upgrade to completely gut what is an admittedly thin WR corp behind Julio? Is Gio enough of an upgrade to be, barring a waiver pick up, 100% dependent on Julio and Garcon for WR points? Thanks as always.
Drew Bankston (Tyler, TX)
Not sure of scoring system. Just answering off my gut rather than really looking at it carefully. But Patterson hasn’t blown it up the first two weeks. I might be willing to live without him if I were able to bring in Bernard.
Question 11
An owner has offered me Jeremy Graham for Alfred Morris. I consider it an even trade as Morris looks good and I think his value has increased with the RGIII injury. I have Heath Miller, who is sucking so I could use a TE. I also have Lynch but I am not sure I am happy with my other RBs. I have Vereen who will do well when the game is close and playing against a good run def. I also have S Greene and Chris Johnson plus J Starks and R Turbin. Would you make the trade or try to pick up Gates, D Walker or Donnell to replace Miller?
RODNEY NESBIT (Redondo Beach, CA)
I think you’re talking about Jimmy Graham. He’s a franchise-type player, and it would be nice to have him. I would select Jimmy Graham before Morris. I would not select Jeremy Hill, Jeremy Kerley or Jeremy Maclin before Morris. Some of those other guys should probably be picked up as well – Delanie Walker looks very strong, and Antonio Gates is playing well.