Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How much is luck a factor with fantasy defenses? Is it time to kick Tom Brady to the curb? And trying to make sense of some the rankings changes on the FFI board.
Question 1
This year I waited too long to draft a defense / special teams and ended up with Dallas. They looked terrible week 1. Last year Dallas was bad on defense, but their scoring on TDs, sacks, ints and fumble recoveries in our league wasn't horrendous. Does Dallas have any talent on D or players returning later in the season that might make any plays? My other options would be switching to either the NY Giants, San Diego or Jacksonville. The Jags scored 8 pts this week without a TD which is impressive. Is it really worth changing a D or is it all luck?
Paul Bakalars (La Crescent, MN)
You can’t just dismiss defenses as luck and ignore them. There’s a luck/chance factor, and that can be frustrating. There will be weeks that the Oakland defense is better than the Seattle defense, and that drives people crazy. But that’s true at the other positions as well. None of the Big Four running backs scored in Week 1 – Peterson, Forte, McCoy, Charles – but nobody is throwing their hands up in the air and giving up on those guys. The reality is we have some idea of which defenses will be good. Maybe even more than we realize. I just did a little stat comparison of defenses of the last 10 years. In each of the last 10 years, the average production of the top 25 percent of defenses has been better than the average production of the next 25 percent. That is, if you looked at defenses that finished the season ranked between 1st and 8th, that group (on average) was more productive than the average of the defenses that ranked 9th to 16th. Not just last year, but in every single year from 2004-2013. The same is true for that second group of defenses; in each of the last 10 years, it’s been more productive than the next eight teams (17th thru 24th). And that group beat the bottom eight teams (25th-32nd) every year. That’s 40 different groups of eight teams over 10 years, and in every single one of them, the group that was better performing the previous year managed to maintain that edge. Results vary, of course, but if you settled for a bottom 25 percent defense, you tended to get 5.3 fantasy points per game, on average. Teams in the next tier up where worth over 10 percent more. Teams two tiers up (in the 2nd-best tier) were worth 20 percent more. And teams from that top group were worth almost twice as much as the bottom group (9.0 points per game vs. 5.3 per game). I take that as evidence that it simply doesn’t make sense to just write off that position as only luck. In your particular case, you have an unusual team in that Dallas actually ranked 10th in fantasy points last year. They’re in the group that history tells us will be better than 16 below-average teams last year. But it’s my belief that the Cowboys belong in the lowest wrong. They don’t have the pass rush, they don’t have the people in the secondary, and I don’t think that will change.
Question 2
I have been subscribing to Fantasy Index for years and I completely understand that predictions of performance are just that predictions. What I don't get is how a player like Jamaal Charles can be #1 all preseason in a PPR then bam in your last preseason cheat sheet he drops to #3. No explanation? Moving Emmanuel Sanders up is understandable with Welker suspension, but sometime it seem like you move guys up and down just to move them.
JAMES TALLEUR (Highland, NY)
Fair question. I can understand the frustration. Keep in mind that for the most part, rather than trying to put the players in an order, I’m just working with the stat projections. That is, when Jamaal Charles drops from No. 1 to No. 3 on your draft board, it’s rarely because I have the list of running backs in front of me and decide that I’d like to move Charles down. More typically, something will happen that will cause me to be more or less interested in an entire team. With Kansas City, for example, they lost the three offensive linemen in free agency. Then their right tackle got suspended for the first four games. When something like that occurs, I might reduce Kansas City’s rushing projection by 5 yards per game (and shave a little off their rushing touchdowns as well). A portion of that is then tied to Charles, so it’s dropping him by maybe 3 yards per game. But when I reduce Charles by 3 yards per game, I don’t immediately know how far that will drop Charles in the rankings (which are not just PPR rankings but also standard and TD-only). When I’m working on these things, I’m making dozens of changes a day of that nature. I try to get the rankings correct initially in the offseason with an in-depth look at each team and player, then the projections are constantly getting tweaked all along. If there’s a rankings change with a player that you would like to further discuss, best to send in a request via the mailbag.
Question 3
Do RB's that fumble ever "cure" themselves? Do guys that didn't fumble in college continue to hold on to the ball in the NFL? I got Steven Ridley (cheap) but I was just curious if you ever did the analysis.
Jose Montana (ROSEMEAD, CA)
It can be done. Tiki Barber fumbled 18 times in the 2002-03 seasons (9 each year). He started holding the ball differently and fumbled only 5, 1 and 3 times in his final three seasons. Adrian Peterson fumbled 9 times in his second year, but he’s fumbled only 4 and 5 times in the last two seasons.
Question 4
Great job with the Fantasy Index Weekly for week 1! you were right-on with a lot of the predictions, particularly Shonn Greene, R. Wilson, etc. After seeing the Patriots get beaten down by Miami, is it time to re-evaluate the entire Patriots lineup? When did Tom Brady morph into Drew Bledsoe? He just looks old now, like a 31-year-old WR or RB who doesn’t have it anymore ... the Revis-led defense looks remarkably similar to the Revis-less defense of last year, i.e., they can't stop anyone … they looked particularly bad against the run. I know it's one game, but the Patriots suddenly look mediocre.
Rob Dammers (Ringwood, NJ)
I agree that the run defense looked bad. Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller churned out 193 rushing yards, averaging 5.5 per carry. That wasn’t due to gimmicks or anything fancy implemented by new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. The run defense was simply poor. I wouldn’t worry too much about Tom Brady. I think he’ll get things turned around.
Question 5
How much should I be willing to spend to pick up Josh Gordon and Isaiah Crowell from the waiver wire? Our budget for the year is $100. Also, Forsett, Rainey, and Taliaferro are available.
Ryan C. (Pittsburgh, PA)
Looks like Gordon will return. He should have his suspension reduced to eight games. I expect he’ll be a top-15 receiver during the second half of the season. It’s like having Larry Fitzgerald or Vincent Jackson available on the waiver wire (only you don’t get to use them until Week 10). Could be the guy who puts you over the top. I’m in a league (12 teams) where a guy used all of his payroll to get him. I wouldn’t go that far. It’s nice to have a few bucks left to adjust the roster, picking through lesser candidates (swapping out defenses and kickers and covering bye weeks – that kind of thing). So I’d be thinking more about $80 if I had a pretty strong roster that probably wouldn't need much else.
Question 6
You've been leading the push on the Russell Wilson hype train, talking in the offseason how you believe the Seahawks O might take that next step. I drafted both Rodgers & Russell Wilson, and started Wilson over Rodgers week 1 (worked out, +10 pts) but unfortunately lost my week. My WR heavy draft left me a mess at RB, and I have the following offer: Jamaal Charles, Philip Rivers, Anquan Boldin for Aaron Rodgers, Darren Sproles, Panthers D in my 12 team PPR league. Would you confident enough in Wilson to ship off Rodgers for Charles? Is Charles gonna be okay?
James Geist (OVERLAND PARK, KS)
Rivers, Boldin, Sproles and Carolina. Those are kind of depth-type guys, so I will leave them out of the analysis. Let’s keep it simply. It’s Charles v. Rodgers. Those are the two guys you care about. I would take Charles, and it isn’t even close. That team has slipped some and has offensive line issues, but I watch the Tennessee game in its entirety on Wednesday, and upon further review, I don’t think Kansas City is as bad as I thought on Sunday-Monday (when I had only seen some highlights and parts of the game). Charles won’t be as effective as a runner this year, but he’ll catch 70-80 passes, and that makes him solid gold in a PPR format. He’s still a top-5 player overall in that format (I’ve got him at #3) while Rodgers because of the position he plays should be selected in the third round. I would jump on that deal. You will be fine at quarterback with Wilson starting and Rivers available as a second option.
Question 7
After one week of regular season action, which generally overlooked players would you say are most likely to be 2014's surprise studs? Who do you think will be the 2014 version of guys like Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, Knowshon Moreno, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, Andy Dalton, Zac Stacy, etc? The type of player who could go from late round flyer or waiver pickup to top 10 at his position?
Joe Savitsky (Philadelphia, PA)
Everybody knows about Allen Hurns. He keeps getting downfield and making plays; has been doing so for over a month. So I will toss out a couple of others. Mike Wallace seems like he’s going to be more effective; they’re really trying to get him the ball. I wish I’d ranked him at least 15 spots higher. At least. In Buffalo, it seems like Robert Woods is their best receiver. He keeps outperforming Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams. Brandin Cooks looks like a possible instant star. And Carlos Hyde at some point could become a big part of the offense in San Francisco.
Question 8
Followed a "draft QB late" strategy and ended up drafting Brady in the 8th in my two leagues, followed by Wilson in the 9th in one of the leagues, and going QB-less in the other league. Last year you whiffed on Brady ... this season he seems off to a slow start after 1 game anyway. What's your window going to be this season for seeing if he's still in that tier of QBs that are a sure start each week?
Charles Mobraten (Woodside, CA)
Brady was a slight disappointment in his first game, but way too early to be pushing the panic button. It was a hot day in Miami, and they had some problems with protection against a really good pass rush. Brady started off slow last year, when the Patriots had some problems with their receiving corps, but he eventually got it figured out. In the second half of last season, Brady averaged 315 passing yards per game, with 16 TDs and only 5 interceptions. He's still a top quarterback, and his receiver situation this year is a lot better than in 2013.
Question 9
This is our first year with bidding for free agents. $200 bankroll. I am hurting at my RB2 spot (currently have B. Pierce) and want to bid on either T. West or J. Forsett. Any thoughts on which to go after first and how much of my bankroll I should spend this early ?
Craig Gray (Bemidji, MN)
You have Bernard Pierce, so I think it makes sense to couple him with Forsett. Looks like they’ll be a one-two punch. Pierce played poorly in the preseason and he was lousy in the first game, but it looks like they’re sticking him. He got a lot more work last night. Forsett was a little more effective, but he’s awfully small. Doesn’t look like they’ll ask him to carry more than half of the workload in many games. (Pierce got three times as many carries last night.) West should get more carries in the short term, but Ben Tate should return in a few weeks. And West is a liability in the passing game, which hurts him in many fantasy formats.
Question 10
Going forward, how do you see the backfield situations playing out in Miami, New England and New York (Jets)?
Chuck Penza (Hammonton, NJ)
They will all be committees. In Miami, Moreno-Miller, with Moreno leading the way. In New England, should be Vereen as a Sproles/Woodhead type guy (only he’ll carry more than those guys), with Ridley providing some running muscle. If Ridley winds up in the doghouse, Brandon Bolden would take over the “runner” role. And in the Jets, it’s a Johnson-Ivory tandem, with Power chipping in some on third downs.
Question 11
Blind bidding waivers starts soon in my dynasty league. We run a PPR format. I am building my team from the ground up so competing isn't really a top priority, however the competitive nature is still there and if I can ruin a few hopes and dreams, I will feel successful. I want to add a RB or two as we must start 2 (currently rolling with Tate, Jeremy Hill, Andre Williams, and James White) but we can start 3. How would you rank the following for at least 2014? Shonn Greene, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Dwyer, Bobby Rainey, CJ Anderson, Antone Smith, Anthony Dixon?
Nathan Kline (Topton, PA)
Shonn Greene is the starting tailback for Tennessee, so he could help you some this year. He’s not much of a pass catcher, though, and that really works against him in your format. I also think they’re going to go with three and four running backs in most of their games. Dexter McCluster definitely has a role. They’ll mix in Bishop Sankey, and his role should increase as he gets more experienced. They’re also giving Leon Washington a few touches.
Question 12
I'm in a dynasty league PPR. My RB's are weak. I was wondering out of this batch of WR's who would you look to trade? Cooks, Patterson, Julio Jones, Edelman, Antonio Brown. I'm targeting Shane Vereen or LeSean McCoy.
PAUL CHAWLA (Richfield, WI)
Those are all good receivers. I wouldn’t want to get rid of any of them, but at the same time I understand the need to obtain a running back. Edelman would probably be the first one you’d want to me, because his career doesn’t have as many years left. Of the other three, Cooks-Jones-Brown all look like guys who’ll be cranking out seasons with 80-90-100 catches for years, while Patterson might be more of a big-play guy who catches fewer passes. So Patterson would be the next guy to try to move. But with the depth you have at receiver, you could potentially be able to trade any of them to get the right running back.
Question 13
I agreed for the most part with some of your contrarian rankings (Rudolph, R Wilson, Edelman). I also went with the WR plan (D Thomas, AJ Green & J Nelson). Nelson was a shock in Rd 3. He did OK on Thurs which is a good sign. Another question about Wilson (my other is Cutler). I think that team is so good that he'll shine only as needed such as games at SD & vs. DEN. When he's home vs. a mid-tier or less offense (I realize the GB off is damn good) I think Cutler may be my starter (depending on his matchup). On that note, do you have any data handy for Wilson home/away & Cutler home/away?
JOHN HARBAUGH (Cross Jnct, VA)
Fair points. I agree that you’ll see much bigger numbers out of Russell Wilson when opponents are going a better job of scoring and slowing down Marshawn Lynch. For this week, I think, the correct play is to go with Wilson at San Diego rather than Cutler at San Francisco.
Question 14
I really need some solid advice here. I thought I drafted a great team this year until my running backs went way down hill. My receivers are great. Calvin Johnson, Cobb, and Cooks. Only problem is I drafted a hurt Doug Martin and Ray Rice ... I also drafted lamar miller who is being outplayed by Moreno already. My bench running backs are Carlos Hyde, Starks, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Bobby Rainey. Any suggestions who to start in a standard league?
Michael Holmburg (Glenolden, PA)
Easy. Step off the ledge. Let’s give the guys some time. You have the starting running back in Tampa Bay (Martin most weeks, and Rainey is Martin gets hurt). Last week they happened to be playing against the best run defense in the league. They’ll get better. So really, you just need one other guy. Eddie Lacy probably will miss some games at some point, so Starks definitely has value. Carlos Hyde could become the starter in San Francisco at some point; he’s better than Frank Gore. And Lamar Miller is a change-of-pace guy (40 percent of the work?) who will go full-time if and when Moreno misses some games. You’ve also got the waiver wire to work with. Patience.
Question 15
I'm in a 0.5 pt PPR league, and I have a deep receiving corps: Antonio Brown, Edelman, Fitzgerald, Sanders and Colston. However, Justin Hunter is available & while he's not ranked higher in the re-drafter than any of these guys, I just have the suspicion that his ceiling is pretty high, that maybe some kind of breakout is around the corner. Would you roll the die and take him over any of the WRs I already have?
L.B. Graham (Maryland Heights, MO)
Agree that Justin Hunter should not be sitting there as an unrestricted free agent, but will be tough to fit him onto your roster. The one option I see is Colston. Colston probably will be better than Hunter, but Hunter has more upside and is a lot more explosive. Maybe you could work out a deal, trading a wide receiver and a running back for an even better running back, then use the resulting roster spot to pick up Hunter?