I like to take a lay of the land every few weeks. Stop looking so much at individual players and try to gauge where the teams are headed. Because the two are interlocked – players tend to do better when they’re on the better teams.

We can look at power polls, statistics for games that have been played, and we can plug those into the remaining games to see where things are headed.

There are about 180 games left. I believe 76 have been played. So if we go through those remaining games, forecast a winner in each, then add those wins to the existing win-loss records, we get an idea of how things should shake out.

For this endeavor, I don’t try to identify winners of 50-50 games. If a game looks like a tossup, I just give half of a win to each team. Similarly, if I think a team has a 70 percent chance of winning, I don’t give it a full win; it just gets .7 of a win, with the .3 remainder going to the opponent (which presumably would win three of 10 such games).

Anyway, using that process, it works out this way ..

I think the Seahawks are the best team, but the Broncos have a slightly more favorable schedule, so they project to come out just ahead in wins.

I don’t see much difference between the three good NFC East teams. According to my projections, a more favorable schedule will help the Cowboys win that division. They’re well ahead of Philadelphia and Dallas.

Teams that will secure playoff byes Denver, Indianapolis, Seattle, Dallas.

Other division winners Cincinnati, New England, Green Bay, Carolina.

Wild Card Teams San Diego, Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia.

Winning records (but not in the playoffs) San Francisco, Giants, Lions, Texans, Bills, Steelers. I think the 49ers are a little better than the Cardinals, but the harder schedule seems to result in San Francisco not making the cut.

Top 5 draft picks in 2015 Oakland, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Jets and Washington.

WIN PROBABILITIES FOR REMAINING GAMES
Week 6 Baltimore 66% at Tampa Bay 34%
Week 6 Carolina 34% at Cincinnati 66%
Week 6 Chicago 45% at Atlanta 55%
Week 6 Dallas 18% at Seattle 82%
Week 6 Denver 92% at NY Jets 8%
Week 6 Detroit 52% at Minnesota 48%
Week 6 Green Bay 54% at Miami 46%
Week 6 Indianapolis 57% at Houston 43%
Week 6 Jacksonville 34% at Tennessee 66%
Week 6 New England 52% at Buffalo 48%
Week 6 NY Giants 50% at Philadelphia 50%
Week 6 Pittsburgh 50% at Cleveland 50%
Week 6 San Diego 87% at Oakland 13%
Week 6 San Francisco 70% at St. Louis 30%
Week 6 Washington 13% at Arizona 87%
Week 7 Arizona 82% at Oakland 18%
Week 7 Atlanta 24% at Baltimore 76%
Week 7 Carolina 34% at Green Bay 66%
Week 7 Cincinnati 39% at Indianapolis 61%
Week 7 Cleveland 66% at Jacksonville 34%
Week 7 Houston 42% at Pittsburgh 58%
Week 7 Kansas City 24% at San Diego 76%
Week 7 Miami 46% at Chicago 54%
Week 7 Minnesota 31% at Buffalo 69%
Week 7 New Orleans 39% at Detroit 61%
Week 7 NY Giants 45% at Dallas 55%
Week 7 NY Jets 8% at New England 92%
Week 7 San Francisco 24% at Denver 76%
Week 7 Seattle 85% at St. Louis 15%
Week 7 Tennessee 39% at Washington 61%
Week 8 Baltimore 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Week 8 Buffalo 59% at NY Jets 41%
Week 8 Chicago 23% at New England 77%
Week 8 Detroit 50% vs. Atlanta 50%
Week 8 Green Bay 52% at New Orleans 48%
Week 8 Houston 59% at Tennessee 41%
Week 8 Indianapolis 55% at Pittsburgh 45%
Week 8 Miami 66% at Jacksonville 34%
Week 8 Minnesota 50% at Tampa Bay 50%
Week 8 Oakland 10% at Cleveland 90%
Week 8 Philadelphia 45% at Arizona 55%
Week 8 San Diego 31% at Denver 69%
Week 8 Seattle 66% at Carolina 34%
Week 8 St. Louis 18% at Kansas City 82%
Week 8 Washington 10% at Dallas 90%
Week 9 Arizona 42% at Dallas 58%
Week 9 Baltimore 48% at Pittsburgh 52%
Week 9 Denver 57% at New England 43%
Week 9 Indianapolis 48% at NY Giants 52%
Week 9 Jacksonville 4% at Cincinnati 96%
Week 9 New Orleans 39% at Carolina 61%
Week 9 NY Jets 15% at Kansas City 85%
Week 9 Oakland 1% at Seattle 99%
Week 9 Philadelphia 50% at Houston 50%
Week 9 San Diego 59% at Miami 41%
Week 9 St. Louis 8% at San Francisco 92%
Week 9 Tampa Bay 23% at Cleveland 77%
Week 9 Washington 35% at Minnesota 65%
Week 10 Atlanta 54% at Tampa Bay 46%
Week 10 Carolina 39% at Philadelphia 61%
Week 10 Chicago 20% at Green Bay 80%
Week 10 Cleveland 28% at Cincinnati 72%
Week 10 Dallas 95% vs. Jacksonville 5%
Week 10 Denver 90% at Oakland 10%
Week 10 Kansas City 50% at Buffalo 50%
Week 10 Miami 39% at Detroit 61%
Week 10 NY Giants 18% at Seattle 82%
Week 10 Pittsburgh 59% at NY Jets 41%
Week 10 San Francisco 56% at New Orleans 44%
Week 10 St. Louis 13% at Arizona 87%
Week 10 Tennessee 7% at Baltimore 93%
Week 11 Atlanta 34% at Carolina 66%
Week 11 Buffalo 48% at Miami 52%
Week 11 Cincinnati 52% at New Orleans 48%
Week 11 Denver 92% at St. Louis 8%
Week 11 Detroit 39% at Arizona 61%
Week 11 Houston 45% at Cleveland 55%
Week 11 Minnesota 39% at Chicago 61%
Week 11 New England 39% at Indianapolis 61%
Week 11 Oakland 4% at San Diego 96%
Week 11 Philadelphia 42% at Green Bay 58%
Week 11 Pittsburgh 61% at Tennessee 39%
Week 11 San Francisco 50% at NY Giants 50%
Week 11 Seattle 65% at Kansas City 35%
Week 11 Tampa Bay 45% at Washington 55%
Week 12 Arizona 15% at Seattle 85%
Week 12 Baltimore 52% at New Orleans 48%
Week 12 Cincinnati 54% at Houston 46%
Week 12 Cleveland 46% at Atlanta 54%
Week 12 Dallas 45% at NY Giants 55%
Week 12 Detroit 34% at New England 66%
Week 12 Green Bay 60% at Minnesota 40%
Week 12 Jacksonville 4% at Indianapolis 96%
Week 12 Kansas City 78% at Oakland 22%
Week 12 Miami 8% at Denver 92%
Week 12 NY Jets 18% at Buffalo 82%
Week 12 St. Louis 6% at San Diego 94%
Week 12 Tampa Bay 27% at Chicago 73%
Week 12 Tennessee 8% at Philadelphia 92%
Week 12 Washington 8% at San Francisco 92%
Week 13 Arizona 52% at Atlanta 48%
Week 13 Carolina 52% at Minnesota 48%
Week 13 Chicago 34% at Detroit 66%
Week 13 Cincinnati 66% at Tampa Bay 34%
Week 13 Cleveland 42% at Buffalo 58%
Week 13 Denver 63% at Kansas City 37%
Week 13 Miami 57% at NY Jets 43%
Week 13 New England 45% at Green Bay 55%
Week 13 New Orleans 42% at Pittsburgh 58%
Week 13 NY Giants 82% at Jacksonville 18%
Week 13 Oakland 28% at St. Louis 72%
Week 13 Philadelphia 42% at Dallas 58%
Week 13 San Diego 49% at Baltimore 51%
Week 13 Seattle 55% at San Francisco 45%
Week 13 Tennessee 18% at Houston 82%
Week 13 Washington 7% at Indianapolis 93%
Week 14 Atlanta 20% at Green Bay 80%
Week 14 Baltimore 52% at Miami 48%
Week 14 Buffalo 10% at Denver 90%
Week 14 Carolina 50% at New Orleans 50%
Week 14 Dallas 52% at Chicago 48%
Week 14 Houston 65% at Jacksonville 35%
Week 14 Indianapolis 57% at Cleveland 43%
Week 14 Kansas City 39% at Arizona 61%
Week 14 New England 34% at San Diego 66%
Week 14 NY Giants 78% at Tennessee 22%
Week 14 NY Jets 31% at Minnesota 69%
Week 14 Pittsburgh 31% at Cincinnati 69%
Week 14 San Francisco 90% at Oakland 10%
Week 14 Seattle 61% at Philadelphia 39%
Week 14 St. Louis 45% at Washington 55%
Week 14 Tampa Bay 18% at Detroit 82%
Week 15 Arizona 63% at St. Louis 37%
Week 15 Cincinnati 53% at Cleveland 47%
Week 15 Dallas 48% at Philadelphia 52%
Week 15 Denver 48% at San Diego 52%
Week 15 Green Bay 49% at Buffalo 51%
Week 15 Houston 20% at Indianapolis 80%
Week 15 Jacksonville 4% at Baltimore 96%
Week 15 Miami 29% at New England 71%
Week 15 Minnesota 29% at Detroit 71%
Week 15 New Orleans 50% at Chicago 50%
Week 15 NY Jets 50% at Tennessee 50%
Week 15 Oakland 8% at Kansas City 92%
Week 15 Pittsburgh 49% at Atlanta 51%
Week 15 San Francisco 20% at Seattle 80%
Week 15 Tampa Bay 18% at Carolina 82%
Week 15 Washington 10% at NY Giants 90%
Week 16 Atlanta 42% at New Orleans 58%
Week 16 Baltimore 53% at Houston 47%
Week 16 Buffalo 72% at Oakland 28%
Week 16 Cleveland 39% at Carolina 61%
Week 16 Denver 57% at Cincinnati 43%
Week 16 Detroit 50% at Chicago 50%
Week 16 Green Bay 66% at Tampa Bay 34%
Week 16 Indianapolis 48% at Dallas 52%
Week 16 Kansas City 48% at Pittsburgh 52%
Week 16 Minnesota 34% at Miami 66%
Week 16 New England 70% at NY Jets 30%
Week 16 NY Giants 66% at St. Louis 34%
Week 16 Philadelphia 63% at Washington 37%
Week 16 San Diego 50% at San Francisco 50%
Week 16 Seattle 61% at Arizona 39%
Week 16 Tennessee 50% at Jacksonville 50%
Week 17 Arizona 39% at San Francisco 61%
Week 17 Buffalo 31% at New England 69%
Week 17 Carolina 50% at Atlanta 50%
Week 17 Chicago 50% at Minnesota 50%
Week 17 Cincinnati 48% at Pittsburgh 52%
Week 17 Cleveland 29% at Baltimore 71%
Week 17 Dallas 66% at Washington 34%
Week 17 Detroit 33% at Green Bay 67%
Week 17 Indianapolis 82% at Tennessee 18%
Week 17 Jacksonville 10% at Houston 90%
Week 17 New Orleans 54% at Tampa Bay 46%
Week 17 NY Jets 20% at Miami 80%
Week 17 Oakland 1% at Denver 99%
Week 17 Philadelphia 42% at NY Giants 58%
Week 17 San Diego 53% at Kansas City 47%
Week 17 St. Louis 5% at Seattle 95%

—Ian Allan