I’m trying to check in with some stat overviews on Saturdays this year – look at some of the big-picture stat concepts, and see what emerges. Typically, I look at the goal-line work, passing and the end zone and whatnot. We’re tracking all of those plays, and at six weeks in, there’s getting to be enough data that it’s meaningful.
This time around, I’m looking at short-yardage rushing. And by “short yardage” I’m defining that as any running play from the 1- or 2-yard line, or any play on third or fourth down where 1 or 2 yards are needed to keep a play alive. These are money-type plays. Either you muscle out the score or first down, or the play is unsuccessful.
And on these ones, we’re also including two-point conversions.
Using those definitions, team totals so far are as follows …
| SHORT-YARDAGE RUSHING EFFICIENCY | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Att | Good | Pct |
| 1. | Dallas | 13 | 12 | 92.3% |
| 2. | San Diego | 11 | 10 | 90.9% |
| 3. | Atlanta | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| 4. | Cincinnati | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| 5. | Denver | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| 6. | NY Jets | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| 7. | Minnesota | 10 | 8 | 80.0% |
| 8. | Philadelphia | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| 9. | Tampa Bay | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| 10. | New Orleans | 12 | 9 | 75.0% |
| 11. | Pittsburgh | 12 | 9 | 75.0% |
| 12. | St. Louis | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| 13. | Tennessee | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| 14. | Chicago | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| 15. | Seattle | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| 16. | Buffalo | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| 17. | Kansas City | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| 18. | Carolina | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 19. | Cleveland | 14 | 9 | 64.3% |
| 20. | Detroit | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| 21. | Oakland | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| 22. | Jacksonville | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
| 23. | Houston | 17 | 10 | 58.8% |
| 24. | Washington | 12 | 7 | 58.3% |
| 25. | New England | 24 | 13 | 54.2% |
| 26. | NY Giants | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
| 27. | Baltimore | 22 | 11 | 50.0% |
| 28. | Indianapolis | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| 29. | Green Bay | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| 30. | Miami | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| 31. | Arizona | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| 32. | San Francisco | 14 | 5 | 35.7% |
I have a few takeaways.
The Cowboys rank No. 1, which is no surprise, given the kind of season DeMarco Murray is having. They’ve been successful on 12 of their 13 plays. The first surprise comes at No. 2, where San Diego is 10 of 11. Four other teams are tied for 3rd, with the biggest surprise of that group being Atlanta (given its offensive line issues).
With this kind of stat, you would expect San Francisco would be one of the best teams in the league, given the way they grind it out. But the 49ers rank last. They’ve tried to run the ball on 14 of these plays, and they’ve only gotten the necessary yardage on 5 of them. Doubly surprising, the 49ers also weren’t a great short-yardage rushing team last year (they went only 23 of 42, better than only five other teams).
Four other teams have been successful on less than half of their short-yardage rushing attempts: Arizona, Miami, Green Bay and Indianapolis.
Volume is also important here. It provides an indication of which teams are more likely to at least attempt rushing plays when it’s 3rd-and-1. It’s a sign of which teams have some confidence in their running games, and are having some success at least getting in short-yardage situations.
Two teams so far have over 20 such plays, the Patriots and Ravens. With 24, the Patriots are the leader (and these stats don’t include the Thursday night game), and they always seem to be up there – they tend to score 18-19 rushing touchdowns every year. Going forward, that offense could change some because they’ve lost their primary power runner, Stevan Ridley. Ravens are doing just fine without Ray Rice, with Justin Forsett, Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro pounding things out.
At the other end of the scale, the Seahawks have attempted a league-low 7 running plays in short-yardage situations. That’s hard to believe. Given their personnel and playing style, you would have expected they’d be in the top 5. But they’ve kind of gotten lost offensively this year, which could be a contributing factor to their decision to unload Percy Harvin yesterday. Going forward, they should try to get back to more of their physical, pounding offense, like what they employed last year.
The Eagles also stand out. I expected they’d be among the leaders, and they have only 9 of those plays (in part because of offensive line injuries).
Three other teams have attempted only eight such runs, and they’re three you would expect: Rams, Raiders, Titans. Tennessee is a frustrating team in that it seems to have the necessarily offensive line in place to be a mauling running team but hasn’t gone that route.
I will post the individual numbers in a separate entry.
—Ian Allan