I’ve been trying to check on Saturday afternoons with some custom stats. These aren’t regular kind of numbers released by the Elias Sports Bureau, but stats we cook up on our own. We track all short-yardage plays and plays inside the 10, drop them in a database and use the spot trends and emerging players.
In the past few weeks, I’ve looked at passing and receiving inside the 10 and short-yardage rushing.
This time around, I’m looking at all plays inside the 5. And I’m also including 2-point conversions here. While technically not “plays” (they don’t count for official game stats) they’re just as telling as a regular play from the 2-yard line. Perhaps even more.
For starters, we can look at which teams are tending to pass and run when they’re close to the goal line. Through seven weeks, four teams have passed the ball on over two thirds of their plays inside the 5 – Packers, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos.
Half of the league’s team have run the ball more often as they’ve passed it when inside the 5. This group is headed by Jacksonville and Oakland (both at 5 runs and only 1 pass). Teams that might surprise you include the Patriots, who have run almost twice as often as they’ve passed (13-7). The Ravens are pounding it pretty good right now, with a league-high 15 runs versus only 9 passes. And the Saints are at 8 runs and 5 passes.
Here are the numbers for all 32. As a reminder, these aren’t SUCCESSFUL plays, but just the number of plays in general. Passes, followed by runs, followed by the combined total (pass plus run) and then the percentage of plays that were pass plays.
| PASS HEAVY TEAMS INSIDE THE 5 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total | Pa Pct |
| Green Bay | 15 | 5 | 20 | 75.0% |
| San Diego | 9 | 3 | 12 | 75.0% |
| Pittsburgh | 9 | 4 | 13 | 69.2% |
| Denver | 15 | 7 | 22 | 68.2% |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 2 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Atlanta | 8 | 5 | 13 | 61.5% |
| Dallas | 11 | 7 | 18 | 61.1% |
| Kansas City | 10 | 7 | 17 | 58.8% |
| Chicago | 8 | 6 | 14 | 57.1% |
| Seattle | 4 | 3 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Indianapolis | 13 | 11 | 24 | 54.2% |
| San Francisco | 8 | 7 | 15 | 53.3% |
| St. Louis | 10 | 9 | 19 | 52.6% |
| Buffalo | 4 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| NY Giants | 14 | 14 | 28 | 50.0% |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Cleveland | 9 | 10 | 19 | 47.4% |
| Miami | 9 | 10 | 19 | 47.4% |
| Detroit | 6 | 7 | 13 | 46.2% |
| Minnesota | 3 | 4 | 7 | 42.9% |
| Houston | 5 | 7 | 12 | 41.7% |
| Tennessee | 2 | 3 | 5 | 40.0% |
| Arizona | 5 | 8 | 13 | 38.5% |
| New Orleans | 5 | 8 | 13 | 38.5% |
| Baltimore | 9 | 15 | 24 | 37.5% |
| Carolina | 6 | 10 | 16 | 37.5% |
| NY Jets | 5 | 9 | 14 | 35.7% |
| New England | 7 | 13 | 20 | 35.0% |
| Washington | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33.3% |
| Cincinnati | 4 | 10 | 14 | 28.6% |
| Jacksonville | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16.7% |
| Oakland | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16.7% |
With passing, we see that the teams that have passed the most around the goal line are the ones you would expect. Five have passed the ball more than 10 times inside the 5 – Packers, Colts, Cowboys and the Manning boys. Four have attempted fewer than 4 pass plays in that part of the field: Titans, Vikings, Raiders and Jacksonville.
Buffalo and Washington have been the most efficient scoring teams on pass plays around the goal line. They’re both 4 for 4. Trouble is, they simply haven’t passed enough (just 4 plays each).
New England, Philadelphia and Baltimore have been surprisingly ineffective passing around the goal line. The Eagles are 0-for-4 on pass plays. The Patriots are just 2 of 7. The Ravens are one of three teams at 3 of 9.
| MOST EFFECTIVE PASSING TEAMS INSIDE 5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | TDP | Pct |
| Buffalo | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| Washington | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| Jacksonville | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Oakland | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Carolina | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Minnesota | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Atlanta | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Chicago | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Denver | 15 | 9 | 60.0% |
| Houston | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| New Orleans | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NY Jets | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| San Diego | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
| Indianapolis | 13 | 7 | 53.8% |
| Green Bay | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| Kansas City | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| St. Louis | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| San Francisco | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Detroit | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| Cincinnati | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Seattle | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Dallas | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| NY Giants | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| Arizona | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| Baltimore | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| Cleveland | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| Miami | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| New England | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
Moving on to rushing, I see the Ravens, Giants, Colts and Patriots have called the most running plays inside the 5. They’re all over 10. The Eagles (and who could have seen this coming?) have run a league-low 2 plays in that part of the field. Three other teams are at just 3 plays, including the Seahawks (another big surprise), Chargers and Titans.
Three teams have converted into touchdown over 70 percent of their running plays. Titans, Bills and Lions. The Bills, recall also went 4 for 4 on passing, so at a combined 7 of 8 plays, they’ve been the potent/effective offense inside the 5 (they just haven’t gotten there enough).
The Steelers (0 of 4) are the only team without a touchdown run under 5 yards. Other ineffective running teams around the goal line include the 49ers (1 of 7), Bears (1 of 6) and Falcons (1 of 5).
| MOST EFFECTIVE RUSHING TEAMS INSIDE 5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run | TDR | Pct |
| Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| Buffalo | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Detroit | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| New Orleans | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| Green Bay | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Jacksonville | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Dallas | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| Houston | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| Washington | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Minnesota | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Kansas City | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| Cleveland | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| Oakland | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| Arizona | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| NY Giants | 14 | 5 | 35.7% |
| NY Jets | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| San Diego | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Seattle | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Carolina | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| Miami | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| Denver | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| Indianapolis | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| Baltimore | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| New England | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
| St. Louis | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| Atlanta | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| Chicago | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| San Francisco | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
—Ian Allan