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Factoid

Big Game Quarterbacks

Trying to ride the hot hand at quarterback

Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger come off monster games. Brady tossed 5 TDs against the Bears, while Roethlisberger put up 6 against Indianapolis. But does this mean these guys are no “on fire” quarterbacks who are must starts? Or is this simply a case where they’ve now had their biggest game and the opportunity is gone?

Since 2003, 52 other teams have had 5 or more touchdown passes in a game and come back to play the next week. Of that group, less than a third (16) then came back and threw 3-plus touchdowns again in their next game.

A larger subset (23 of 52) threw either 1 touchdown the next week, or none at all.

In these particular cases, Brady is going against a very good Denver defense, while Roethlisberger faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed a league-low 7 TD passes.

GAME AFTER 5-PLUS TD PASSES
YearTeamYardsTD
2003Indianapolis3862
2003Seattle3283
2003New Orleans2962
2003Indianapolis1460
2004Indianapolis4173
2004Minnesota4175
2004Minnesota3321
2004Indianapolis2644
2004San Diego2504
2004Philadelphia2451
2004Cleveland2412
2004Indianapolis2202
2004Indianapolis2114
2004Oakland2002
2004Minnesota1611
2005Philadelphia3652
2006Pittsburgh3011
2006Dallas2570
2006Seattle2020
2006New Orleans1990
2007New England3801
2007New England3696
2007Cincinnati3421
2007New England3343
2007Pittsburgh2782
2007Cleveland2481
2008NY Jets1891
2009New Orleans4192
2009Minnesota3923
2009Arizona3402
2009New Orleans3113
2009New England3083
2009Cincinnati2241
2009Detroit2131
2010Tampa Bay2552
2010Denver2171
2011Detroit(season)(season)
2011Green Bay(season)(season)
2011New Orleans(season)(season)
2011Green Bay4806
2011New Orleans3074
2011Detroit2761
2011New Orleans2691
2011Pittsburgh2001
2012NY Giants(season)(season)
2012Green Bay3423
2012Houston3151
2013Denver3974
2013New Orleans3822
2013Cincinnati3380
2013Denver3072
2013Philadelphia2283
2013Dallas1701
2013Kansas City1530
2013Seattle1230
2014Baltimore2582

--Ian Allan

Fantasy Index