Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Are "Ja'More" Chase expectations wildly out of whack? Does DK Metcalf have a dynasty future? Cross-referencing rankings with ADP data. Can Dak is a cheaper version of Burrow? And more.
Question 1
Looking at the ranking, I’m surprised how many more points Chase is projected than the next best wr/rb player. I recall CMC being similarly ranked/projected last year. Seems like a huge advantage on paper and I’m curious about the underlying inputs. In Chase’s case (referencing cheat sheet update #1 ppr scoring), what is driving him generating ~33% more points than the next best receiver (369 to 278)? Is he expected to catch 33% more passes, touchdowns and yards? Seems like a big discrepancy.
Kyle Kintner (San Marcos, CA)
I’m making this the lead-off letter because it’s important. But I don’t think it’s a Chase issue but his entire team. There are five elite offenses, I think – Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Lions. Those are the only five I’m projecting to average over 3 touchdowns. (And if you want to expand things and include the Commanders, Packers, 49ers and Kansas City, that’s fine. Of those nine, Cincinnati is the only one with a pass-dominated offense. They scored almost 4 times as many touchdowns last year on passes (43) rather than runs (11). With all of the other big-time offense, they’ve had a steady stream of rushing touchdowns, with guys like Hurts, Allen, Henry and Gibbs. Bengals don’t have that it. Joe Burrow at the end of last year operated at a level on par with peak years of Marino, Manning, Brady, Mahomes and Brees. Burrow averaged 333 passing yards in his last nine, and with 28 TDs (over 3 per week). So on my board, I’ve got him chalked out at about 300 yards and 2.5 TD passes per game (big numbers, but realistic, I believe). With all of those other offenses being more balanced or run oriented, I’ve got the Bengals averaging over 30 more passing yards than any other team, and I’ve got only one other offense averaging 2 TD passes per week. If we take Chase’s usual production ratios and apply them to those passing productions, he grades out a lot higher than all of the other receivers. I doubt that he’ll outperform all other receivers by 33 percent. Some other offense will wildly outperform expectations, or maybe there’s a key injury in Cincinnati. But at this point, I like him a lot better than everyone else at the top of the board. I also like Tee Higgins a lot better than the 2nd-best receivers on every other team. Burrow is a little different. I think he’ll easily finish with the best passing numbers, but Allen, Jackson, Hurts and Daniels all come with the added running dimension, making it harder for Burrow to separate from them.
Question 2
What is your opinion on DK Metcalf’s dynasty value? Do you think the Rodgers/ DK connection will be solid? Or a disaster as both players have their personality quirks in a run heavy system? I have him on several dynasty teams and keep getting offers for him. Does your gut say pivot off of him and let other owners deal with the disappointment he’s brought me over the years? Or stick with him?
Monte McDonald (Las Vegas, NV)
He'll be more heavily used than ever before, given Rodgers’ tendency to lock in on a favorite guy. Metcalf has never been used in that way. Davante Adams has averaged over 10 targets per game in each of his last five seasons with Rodgers. Metcalf’s career high is 8.3 targets per week. But Metcalf isn’t as polished as Davante, without the same mastery of route running and coverages. And Rodgers is nearing the end of the road, with less mobility and less willingness to get hit. And they’re trapped in a clunky Arthur Smith offense, with the potential for everything to go sideways. I think that adequately covers both sides of the fence. I expect he’ll be fine for the 2025 season. Who’s throwing the passes a year from now, we’ll see. I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him if the right offer came along. (That said, I selected Metcalf with the 25th pick of a mock dynasty draft two weeks ago.)
Question 3
i know it's early, but regarding your projections - which player(s) do you feel are justifiably higher/lower than ADP? This seems to get me at least one "steal" and avoid one "pothole" each draft; thanks much!
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
At quarterback, I have Trevor Lawrence 10 spots higher than where he’s going in ESPN drafts. I’ve got Justin Fields, on the other hand, 12 spots lower. Those are the two double-digit movers at that position. For top-10 running backs, I’ve got two who are 5 spots higher than the consensus – Kyren and Josh Jacobs. And I’ve got three top-10 guys who are 4-6 spots lower – Jeanty, McCaffrey, Achane. Running backs I’m double-digit lower on including Kaleb Johnson, Skattebo, Swift, Stevenson, Dobbins and Rachaad White. I’m double-digits higher on Jaylen Warren, with Trey Benson 7 higher than slotted. At wide receiver, I see four in the top 50 where I’m at least 14 spots lower – Rashee, A.J. Brown, Matthew Golden, Cooper Kupp. (I see Love was gushing about Golden yesterday, so I suppose I should move him up a bit.) At wide receiver, there are six where I’ve got them 9-11 spots higher – Sutton, Shakir, DeVonta, Jakobi, DJ Moore and Pearsall.
Question 4
It appears Dak has a very similar setup to Joe Burrow in regards to having two potentially dynamic receivers, a below-average running game, high passing rate (maybe out of necessity), and a below-average defense. Why are you so low on Dak at QB17? He’s put up top-end numbers in the past.
Scott Osborn (Walton, KY)
Prescott was a top-5 quarterback in 2023, averaging 266 yards per game, with 36 touchdowns. But he’s been only average in his last two other seasons, averaging 242 yards in 20 games, with 34 touchdowns and 23 interceptions – more interceptions than games. He doesn’t run anymore, putting him in the Stafford-Goff-Cousins-Tua class as a fantasy option. It’s an uphill climb for those guys, with rushing stats counting double. I like the George Pickens trade. He’s a talent, and I think he’ll be on his best behavior (in a contract year). But the Cowboys are talking about running more, which I take to mean they’ll be passing less. And I don’t like the talent level on the team. Prescott has that bloated contract, limiting their ability to build a strong cast around him.
Question 5
Will there be an offensive line evaluation for 2025?
K Edmonds (Meridian, ID)
Andy Richardson ranked all 32 offensive lines in late June. He went with the Eagles, Broncos, Vikings, Bucs and Ravens as his top 5, and the Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans, Bengals and Jaguars as his bottom 5. He’s got a writeup on each, and it can be seen by clicking on the “In Depth” tab and pulling down to “offensive lines”. If form holds, he’ll update his Offensive Line rankings another time or two before the start of the season.
Question 6
We do our draft order selection based on how you finish the prior season. I've got the #3 choice of draft position. If you could pick any draft slot in a 12 team HPPR league, where would you select to draft?
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
I’d take the No. 1 spot, then selected Ja’Marr Chase with the pick. If that one’s off the table, then I think I’d opt for No. 2 and go with Bijan Robinson – the safest of the running back choices. This will leave you picking at the end of the second round, but I think there will be good players there. I had the No. 1 pick in a mock draft a few weeks ago and had the option of picking Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, A.J. Brown and Joe Burrow with my next two picks. The advantage of picking in the middle of the rounds – 6th or 7th – is that there’s better spacing between the selections, giving you more ability to grab a sliding player. But that value is more than outweighed, I think, by landing Chase or Bijan.
Question 7
What quarterback would you rather have in a standard non-PPR league Joe Burrow, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
Corey Weaver (Buchanan, MI)
I’m a big Joe Burrow fan. I think the passing numbers he puts up will be good enough for him to finish with slightly more production than those guys. The ESPN ADP numbers suggest Burrow will be the fifth quarterback selected, but I think he’s going to be a little better than those four mobile quarterbacks who are being selected before him.
Question 8
I am currently in a couple best ball drafts and will be doing some re-drafter leagues soon, plus I am mock drafting. Is there a place where I can find completed mock drafts by others to get a better idea of who will go where?
Todd Faulds (Coral Springs, FL)
You’re in luck. Andy Richardson just posted his most recently best-ball draft today. It can be found on the main page of the website.
Question 9
Please give me your top 10 backup fantasy QBs in this year’s NFL draft for TD only.
Craig Leedy (Sacramento, CA)
By “backup”, are we talking the second quarterback you pick in the league? Or do you mean players who’ll be holding clipboard at the beginning of the season. If it’s the former, I see balance and depth in the teens at the position. There’s plenty to go around. I was in a mock draft in late July with Prescott, Stafford, Tua, Rodgers and Anthony Richardson not even selected, while Purdy and Goff went in the 14th and final round. I will bet that even some outside of the top 20 will finish with good numbers. Michael Penix, as a prominent example, looks like an afterthought who could dramatically outperform expectations, with the Falcons perhaps having a one of the top dozen offenses. If you’re instead looking at the later, it becomes a balance of how likely the player is to get on the field, versus what he’ll do in that role. If we’re getting into that arena, I’d be thinking about Zach Wilson (given Miami’s offense and Tua’s injury history). Jimmy Garoppolo would be on that list (another good offense, and with Stafford having back issues). The Browns, Giants and Colts look certain to be using multiple quarterbacks. And let’s toss Mac Jones and Sam Howell on there (with Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O’Connell having shown they can get big numbers out of modest quarterbacks).
Question 10
I am in a 12-team league with an auction. My question is on the tool to customize the rankings. Our league has a 200 yard minimum before QBs begin to get yardage points (1 for every 25 yds over 200). How would you suggest I handle this little nuance, everything else works fine.
Scott MacDoniels (Chesterfield, MO)
I would use 1 point for every 25 yards. This will result in every relevant quarterback getting an extra 8 points per start, but since they’re all getting it, it comes out in the wash. (What’s important isn’t the total points, but the difference between the quarterbacks – if 225-yard Russell Wilson beats 200-yard Justin Fields 9-8 or 1-0, it won’t affect the player rankings. The values the auction machine will create will be the same.