Fantasy Index

Scheduletron

November 03, 2014

Strength of schedule

Looking at which defenses play fantasy-friendly schedules

I’m doing something a little different with the Strength of Schedule this week. Rather than looking at wins, losses and defenses (that is, rather than being too concerned about offenses and scoring) I’m going to flip it around.

I’m going to look at which DEFENSES project to have the most fantasy friendly schedules the rest of the way. More specifically, which teams will play opponents that thus far have been more likely to throw interceptions and get their quarterback sacked.

Sacks are key to most fantasy formats. According to the current numbers (which do not include tonight’s games), the Giants, Bears and Vikings project to play the most sack-prone offenses. Each of those teams next games (thru Week 16) are against opponents that (on average) are allowing over 2.5 sacks per game. So a typical team would get over 40 sacks over a season if allowed to play these opponents over and over for 16 games.

Not saying the Giants, Bears or Vikings will be the sack leaders. Just saying they’re playing teams that thus far have given up lots of sacks.

At the other end of the scale, you have teams that are tending to play guys like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who don’t tend to get sacked. Eight teams play opponents that (on average) are allowing fewer than 2 sacks per game. They have headlined by the Rams (who’s pass rush has picked up recently), Kansas City and San Francisco.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Sacks (Weeks 10-16)
RkTeamSacks
1.NY Giants2.74
2.Chicago2.58
3.Minnesota2.58
4.NY Jets2.53
5.Arizona2.50
6.Oakland2.43
7.Green Bay2.37
8.Washington2.36
9.Detroit2.36
10.Baltimore2.35
11.Tennessee2.34
12.Tampa Bay2.34
13.New England2.34
14.Miami2.33
15.Indianapolis2.33
16.Philadelphia2.29
17.Seattle2.27
18.New Orleans2.24
19.Dallas2.15
20.Atlanta2.14
21.Carolina2.10
22.Denver2.09
23.Pittsburgh2.09
24.Houston2.06
25.Jacksonville1.99
26.San Diego1.97
27.Cleveland1.97
28.Buffalo1.97
29.Cincinnati1.90
30.San Francisco1.87
31.Kansas City1.78
32.St. Louis1.71

Moving on to interceptions, and I immediately see that they keep declining. Only two of the 32 franchises get significantly away from 1 interception per game. Quarterbacks just don’t toss 2-3 picks in a game like they did in the old days. Dallas gets to face the most interception-plagued quarterbacks (and these numbers don’t include getting to see Brandon Weeden in practice). Carolina is No. 2, at 1.1 interceptions per game.

Teams playing opponents who tend to be really careful with the ball include Atlanta, Seattle and Kansas City. The Seahawks, recall, led the league with about 28 interceptions last year, but they’re not going to get back anywhere close to that kind of rate of 1-2 picks per game. They’ve got five games left against San Francisco, Arizona and Kansas City, and those teams just don’t take that many chances with the ball.

As with the interceptions, these are per-game numbers. I’ve taken the per-game numbers for each offense so far, and I’ve accounted for the byes on each side of the equation. Some teams will play seven games in Weeks 10-16; others will play just six. The numbers you see are per-game (not per week, which would discriminated against teams with remaining byes).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Interceptions (Weeks 10-16)
RkTeamInt
1.Dallas1.23
2.Carolina1.10
3.Washington1.04
4.Green Bay1.03
5.Tennessee1.01
6.Baltimore1.01
7.Houston.97
8.NY Giants.95
9.Chicago.94
10.Pittsburgh.93
11.Jacksonville.92
12.Indianapolis.90
13.New England.89
14.Tampa Bay.86
15.Cleveland.85
16.Miami.85
17.Denver.84
18.San Francisco.83
19.Detroit.83
20.Minnesota.82
21.San Diego.79
22.Philadelphia.78
23.Buffalo.76
24.New Orleans.75
25.Arizona.75
26.St. Louis.74
27.NY Jets.73
28.Cincinnati.73
29.Oakland.70
30.Kansas City.69
31.Seattle.64
32.Atlanta.63

—Ian Allan

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