Scheduletron

October 27, 2014

Updated strength of schedule

Schedule is telling for 49ers, Patriots

It’s been said that to assume makes an ass of “u” and me. But with the Monday night game this week being of the shooting dead fish in a barrel variety, I’m going to post the Strength of Schedule stuff early. I will assume that Dallas will beat Washington.

That being the case, I will make a few observations about schedules.

San Francisco 49ers. Please note that thus far, the 49ers have played the hardest schedule in the league. Their opponents have gone 30-14 in games against other teams. (They’re actually 33-18 overall, but for this one, I like to remove the polluting factor of each team’s own games, otherwise undefeated teams seemed to have played easy schedules, while winless teams appeared to have been unlucky to have played hard schedules.)

The 49ers become more interesting when we look at the next eight weeks of the season. In that span, San Francisco projects to play the No. 1 easiest schedule in the league. With the 49ers also getting some key plays back, let’s not discount the possibility that the league’s most hated coach will reach a fourth straight NFC Championship game.

New England Patriots. The Patriots are kind of the opposite of the 49ers. They have gone 6-2 so far – seemingly one of the league’s elite teams. But New England so far has played the league’s 3rd-easiest schedule. Over the next eight week, it will play the absolute hardest schedule.

Tampa Bay sucks. The Buccaneers are 1-6, and they’ve compiled that record while playing the easiest schedule in the league.

Other teams that have played easy schedules so far: Broncos, Giants, Seahawks. Other teams that have played easy schedules thus far: Browns, Falcons, Lions.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-8)
Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct
1.	San Francisco	30	14	0	.682
2.	Denver	28	17	0	.622
3.	NY Giants	28	19	0	.596
4.	Seattle	27	19	1	.585
5.	Kansas City	26	19	0	.578
6.	Indianapolis	29	23	1	.557
7.	Carolina	29	24	0	.547
8.	Arizona	24	20	0	.545
9.	NY Jets	29	25	0	.537
10.	Cincinnati	26	23	0	.531
11.	Buffalo	29	26	0	.527
12.	St. Louis	23	21	0	.523
13.	New Orleans	24	23	0	.511
14.	Baltimore	25	24	3	.510
15.	Oakland	23	23	0	.500
16.	Washington	26	26	0	.500
17.	Tennessee	25	27	1	.481
18.	Chicago	25	28	1	.472
19.	Jacksonville	25	28	0	.472
20.	Minnesota	25	28	0	.472
21.	San Diego	24	27	0	.471
22.	Philadelphia	21	24	0	.467
23.	Houston	25	29	0	.463
24.	Green Bay	24	28	1	.462
25.	Pittsburgh	24	28	1	.462
26.	Dallas	23	28	0	.451
27.	Miami	21	26	0	.447
28.	Detroit	23	30	1	.435
29.	Atlanta	22	29	1	.433
30.	New England	22	29	1	.433
31.	Cleveland	18	29	0	.383
32.	Tampa Bay	17	29	1	.372

The past chrt shows the schedules SO FAR. This one shows what’s coming in the next eight weeks. Most fantasy leagues are over before Week 17, so I left those games out of this chart.

Hard schedules in the next eight weeks: Patriots, Dolphins, Raiders. Easy schedules in next eight: 49ers, Steelers, Panthers.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 9-16)
Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct
1.	San Francisco	23	35	0	.397
2.	Pittsburgh	21	31	1	.406
3.	Carolina	21	30	0	.412
4.	NY Giants	27	34	0	.443
5.	Baltimore	24	30	0	.444
6.	Tennessee	24	30	0	.444
7.	Minnesota	24	30	1	.445
8.	Washington	23	28	0	.451
9.	Kansas City	27	32	0	.458
10.	Green Bay	25	29	0	.463
11.	Buffalo	24	27	0	.471
12.	Cincinnati	28	31	0	.475
13.	Cleveland	28	30	3	.484
14.	Tampa Bay	29	31	2	.484
15.	Detroit	26	27	0	.491
16.	New Orleans	29	30	3	.492
17.	Houston	26	26	1	.500
18.	Indianapolis	27	27	0	.500
19.	Denver	30	28	1	.517
20.	Arizona	31	28	0	.525
21.	Atlanta	27	24	1	.529
22.	San Diego	27	24	0	.529
23.	NY Jets	29	25	0	.537
24.	Dallas	28	24	0	.538
25.	Philadelphia	34	28	1	.548
26.	St. Louis	32	26	0	.552
27.	Jacksonville	30	23	1	.565
28.	Seattle	32	24	0	.571
29.	Chicago	31	23	0	.574
30.	Oakland	34	24	0	.586
31.	Miami	37	26	0	.587
32.	New England	32	22	0	.593

Finally, there are a few guys out there who care about Week 17. (Or, if you want to consider SOS as it relates to divisional races rather than individual fantasy players.) With that in mind, here’s the Weeks 9-17 version, which is just the same as the one above except with those final games for each team included.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 9-17)
Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct
1.	Carolina	23	36	0	.390
2.	Pittsburgh	25	33	2	.433
3.	Minnesota	27	35	1	.437
4.	San Francisco	29	36	0	.446
5.	Houston	27	33	1	.451
6.	New Orleans	30	36	3	.457
7.	Baltimore	28	33	0	.459
8.	Denver	30	35	1	.462
9.	Indianapolis	29	33	0	.468
10.	Tennessee	29	33	0	.468
11.	NY Giants	32	36	0	.471
12.	Kansas City	32	35	0	.478
13.	Tampa Bay	32	35	2	.478
14.	Cincinnati	33	34	0	.493
15.	Cleveland	33	33	3	.500
16.	Dallas	30	30	0	.500
17.	Green Bay	31	31	0	.500
18.	Detroit	31	30	0	.508
19.	Buffalo	30	29	0	.508
20.	Washington	30	29	0	.508
21.	Atlanta	30	28	2	.517
22.	Arizona	35	31	0	.530
23.	San Diego	31	27	0	.534
24.	Miami	38	33	0	.535
25.	Philadelphia	37	32	1	.536
26.	Seattle	34	29	0	.540
27.	NY Jets	33	28	0	.541
28.	Chicago	34	28	0	.548
29.	St. Louis	36	29	0	.554
30.	Jacksonville	34	27	1	.556
31.	New England	37	25	0	.597
32.	Oakland	40	25	0	.615

All of the above charts are built from team’s current win-loss records. (Raiders at 0-7, Broncos at 6-1, etc.). The two exception teams are Dallas and Washington. For them, I’m assuming the Cowboys will move to 7-1 and that Washington will slip to 2-6.

--Ian Allan

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