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Factoid

40 is the new 30

Five quarterbacks might toss 40 touchdowns this year

Remember when throwing 30 touchdowns in a season meant something?

I started watching football in the ‘70s. Nobody in the ‘70s threw 30 touchdowns in a season.

They changed some rules and went to a 16-game season in 1978. This opened this up (radically, it seemed at the time), and 13 times in that decade a quarterback reached the 30-touchdown mark. That included Dan Marino’s legendary seasons of 48 and 44.

In the ‘90s, 17 quarterbacks reached 30 touchdowns. At this time, for fantasy purposes, if you felt a quarterback was going to throw 31-33 touchdowns in a season, that’s a guy you could think about selecting in the first or second round.

Now we’re getting to the point where almost half of the season is getting close to 30. At the halfway point of the season, and 12 quarterbacks are on pace to throw 30-plus.

It’s now 40 touchdowns that’s special. That’s a plateau that’s been reached only 11 times, but five quartebacks have a realistic chance of hitting 40 this year. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck look like shoo-ins. Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are all just off the clip.

Here’s the list of all quarterbacks who’ve hit 37 touchdowns in a season, along with where today’s quarterbacks currently are projected to finish.

SINGLE-SEASON TOUCHDOWN PASS LEADERS
YearPlayerTD
2013Peyton Manning, Broncos55
2007Tom Brady, Patriots50
2004Peyton Manning, Colts49
2014Peyton Manning, Broncos48
1984Dan Marino, Dolphins48
2014Andrew Luck, Colts46
2011Drew Brees, Saints46
2011Aaron Rodgers, Packers45
1986Dan Marino, Dolphins44
2012Drew Brees, Saints43
2011Matthew Stafford, Lions41
1999Kurt Warner, Rams41
2014Tom Brady, Patriots39
2014Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers39
2013Drew Brees, Saints39
2012Aaron Rodgers, Packers39
2011Tom Brady, Patriots39
2004Daunte Culpepper, Vikings39
1996Brett Favre, Packers39
2014Aaron Rodgers, Packers38
1995Brett Favre, Packers38
2012Peyton Manning, Broncos37
2001Kurt Warner, Rams37

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index