Checking with with a state of the game. All of the teams have played at least half of their games now, so we have enough data to measure the landscape of how offenses are changing.
It’s not your imagination. Passing is way up. If quarterbacks keep playing the way they’re playing, teams are going to average 27.2 touchdown passes last year. That’s over 2 more than last year (and last year, recall, there was the big jump from from a record 23.7 in 2012).
Interceptions, meanwhile, keep dropping. Looks like the average for this year will be under 14.
In the 2014, for the first time quarterbacks, on average, will throw twice as many touchdowns as interceptions. Back in 1985 (the year before my first fantasy league) quarterbacks averaged more interceptions than touchdowns. In 1978 (the first year with a 16-game schedule) teams averaged under 17 TD passes and almost 23 interceptions.
The game is changing, my friends.
| TD-INT ratios since 1978 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | TD | Int | Diff |
| 1978 | 16.7 | 22.8 | -6.1 |
| 1979 | 19.2 | 21.3 | -2.1 |
| 1980 | 21.6 | 22.4 | -0.8 |
| 1981 | 21.1 | 21.8 | -0.6 |
| 1982 | 11.4 | 12.5 | -1.0 |
| 1983 | 22.3 | 22.1 | 0.2 |
| 1984 | 22.0 | 20.9 | 1.1 |
| 1985 | 21.4 | 21.5 | -0.1 |
| 1986 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 0.2 |
| 1987 | 23.3 | 20.6 | 2.7 |
| 1988 | 19.9 | 19.8 | 0.1 |
| 1989 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 0.8 |
| 1990 | 20.5 | 17.1 | 3.4 |
| 1991 | 18.3 | 17.4 | 0.8 |
| 1992 | 18.4 | 18.5 | -0.1 |
| 1993 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 1.7 |
| 1994 | 20.8 | 16.9 | 3.9 |
| 1995 | 22.1 | 17.1 | 5.0 |
| 1996 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 2.8 |
| 1997 | 20.6 | 16.0 | 4.6 |
| 1998 | 21.9 | 17.0 | 5.0 |
| 1999 | 21.5 | 18.1 | 3.3 |
| 2000 | 20.5 | 17.1 | 3.3 |
| 2001 | 20.5 | 17.6 | 2.9 |
| 2002 | 21.7 | 16.5 | 5.2 |
| 2003 | 20.4 | 16.8 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 22.9 | 16.4 | 6.5 |
| 2005 | 20.1 | 15.8 | 4.3 |
| 2006 | 20.3 | 16.3 | 4.0 |
| 2007 | 22.5 | 16.7 | 5.8 |
| 2008 | 20.2 | 14.5 | 5.7 |
| 2009 | 22.2 | 16.4 | 5.8 |
| 2010 | 23.5 | 16.0 | 7.5 |
| 2011 | 23.3 | 15.8 | 7.5 |
| 2012 | 23.7 | 14.6 | 9.0 |
| 2013 | 25.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 |
| 2014 | 27.2 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
Rushing production, meanwhile, has been stagnant. There’s a whole bunch more yards and points in the league today, but it’s tending to come on passing.
Rushing production has dipped from the ‘80s, and it’s been pretty constant over the last 20 years. (So dropping in value relative to passing.)
| Rushing Production Since 1978 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Yards | TD | Points |
| 1978 | 2,269 | 16.2 | 324.2 |
| 1979 | 2,169 | 17.4 | 321.3 |
| 1980 | 2,041 | 15.4 | 296.4 |
| 1981 | 2,082 | 15.8 | 302.7 |
| 1982 | 1,060 | 8.3 | 155.5 |
| 1983 | 2,076 | 15.6 | 301.2 |
| 1984 | 1,982 | 14.6 | 286.1 |
| 1985 | 1,999 | 15.8 | 294.8 |
| 1986 | 1,899 | 14.3 | 275.8 |
| 1987 | 1,983 | 13.8 | 280.8 |
| 1988 | 1,943 | 15.1 | 285.1 |
| 1989 | 1,845 | 13.9 | 267.6 |
| 1990 | 1,822 | 13.5 | 263.0 |
| 1991 | 1,723 | 12.8 | 249.0 |
| 1992 | 1,768 | 11.9 | 248.2 |
| 1993 | 1,761 | 10.9 | 241.2 |
| 1994 | 1,668 | 12.1 | 239.7 |
| 1995 | 1,730 | 12.8 | 250.0 |
| 1996 | 1,744 | 12.1 | 247.2 |
| 1997 | 1,809 | 12.8 | 257.7 |
| 1998 | 1,803 | 12.6 | 256.1 |
| 1999 | 1,704 | 11.7 | 240.6 |
| 2000 | 1,801 | 13.3 | 259.8 |
| 2001 | 1,788 | 11.8 | 249.5 |
| 2002 | 1,858 | 14.4 | 272.1 |
| 2003 | 1,886 | 13.3 | 268.6 |
| 2004 | 1,866 | 13.0 | 264.6 |
| 2005 | 1,799 | 13.5 | 260.8 |
| 2006 | 1,877 | 13.3 | 267.2 |
| 2007 | 1,775 | 12.1 | 249.8 |
| 2008 | 1,855 | 14.9 | 274.8 |
| 2009 | 1,867 | 13.4 | 267.1 |
| 2010 | 1,831 | 12.5 | 258.0 |
| 2011 | 1,874 | 12.5 | 262.4 |
| 2012 | 1,855 | 12.5 | 260.7 |
| 2013 | 1,806 | 12.8 | 257.5 |
| 2014 | 1,792 | 12.1 | 251.8 |
—Ian Allan