Half of the division leaders right now are teams that have never won the Super Bowl. Browns, Lions, Cardinals, Eagles. That’s cool. It’s always exciting to see somebody new win the thing (or, in the case of Cleveland and Detroit, just get there).

But I don’t see it holding.

Looking at the remaining games, I think think the Browns are even going to make the playoffs. Too many other good teams in the AFC North. Cleveland has benefited from scheduling.

You know the drill. I look at the “All 256” (the 256 regular season games). I project the remaining games, add the wins to existing records and see how it ends up.

It’s based on percentages. That is, if I think Kansas City has a 55 percent chance of beating Seattle this week, Kansas City gets .55 of a win and .45 of a loss, and versa-visa for Seattle.

Following that process, it looks like Denver, New England, Detroit and Philadelphia will gets byes in the first round of the playoffs.

The Colts, Ravens, Cardinals and Saints are the other division winners, with the Packers, Cowboys, Steelers and Kansas City getting the wild cards. Seattle and San Francisco finish with about 10 wins but don’t make the playoffs.

The above, of course, uses the probability system, with teams picking up fractions of wins each week.

If you go with the binary version, forcing me to pick a winner and a loser in each game (with a 53% chance of a win just the same as a 99% chance) it turns out slightly different.

Using that system, Denver, Indianapolis, Green Bay and Philadelphia get the first round byes. The Colts replace the Patriots, while the Packers move up from being a wild card to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Other division winners using the call-every-game approach: Patriots, Steelers, Cardinals and Saints. The wild cards would be Baltimore and San Francisco (who both lose tiebreakers for their division), and Detroit and Kansas City.

The Cowboys would miss the playoffs via tiebreaker despite winning 11 games. Seattle (10-6), Cleveland (9-7), Miami (9-7) and Cincinnati (8-7-1) would also miss the playoffs with winning records.

Here’s the supporting documentation.

PROJECTIONS FOR REMAINING GAMES
WEEK 11
Atlanta 48% at Carolina 52%
Buffalo 40% at Miami 60%
Cincinnati 25% at New Orleans 75%
Denver 90% at St. Louis 10%
Detroit 51% at Arizona 49%
Houston 40% at Cleveland 60%
Minnesota 43% at Chicago 57%
New England 49% at Indianapolis 51%
Oakland 6% at San Diego 94%
Philadelphia 40% at Green Bay 60%
Pittsburgh 57% at Tennessee 43%
San Francisco 65% at NY Giants 35%
Seattle 45% at Kansas City 55%
Tampa Bay 32% at Washington 68%

WEEK 12
Arizona 35% at Seattle 65%
Baltimore 40% at New Orleans 60%
Cincinnati 51% at Houston 49%
Cleveland 42% at Atlanta 58%
Dallas 56% at NY Giants 44%
Detroit 25% at New England 75%
Green Bay 73% at Minnesota 27%
Jacksonville 2% at Indianapolis 98%
Kansas City 84% at Oakland 16%
Miami 18% at Denver 82%
NY Jets 27% at Buffalo 73%
St. Louis 30% at San Diego 70%
Tampa Bay 35% at Chicago 65%
Tennessee 4% at Philadelphia 96%
Washington 7% at San Francisco 93%

WEEK 13
Arizona 55% at Atlanta 45%
Carolina 35% at Minnesota 65%
Chicago 13% at Detroit 87%
Cincinnati 62% at Tampa Bay 38%
Cleveland 40% at Buffalo 60%
Denver 53% at Kansas City 47%
Miami 55% at NY Jets 45%
New England 48% at Green Bay 52%
New Orleans 47% at Pittsburgh 53%
NY Giants 58% at Jacksonville 42%
Oakland 30% at St. Louis 70%
Philadelphia 48% at Dallas 52%
San Diego 35% at Baltimore 65%
Seattle 35% at San Francisco 65%
Tennessee 27% at Houston 73%
Washington 5% at Indianapolis 95%

WEEK 14
Atlanta 7% at Green Bay 93%
Baltimore 51% at Miami 49%
Buffalo 14% at Denver 86%
Carolina 9% at New Orleans 91%
Dallas 54% at Chicago 46%
Houston 58% at Jacksonville 42%
Indianapolis 60% at Cleveland 40%
Kansas City 48% at Arizona 52%
New England 65% at San Diego 35%
NY Giants 52% at Tennessee 48%
NY Jets 38% at Minnesota 62%
Pittsburgh 47% at Cincinnati 53%
San Francisco 89% at Oakland 11%
Seattle 43% at Philadelphia 57%
St. Louis 40% at Washington 60%
Tampa Bay 2% at Detroit 98%

WEEK 15
Arizona 55% at St. Louis 45%
Cincinnati 42% at Cleveland 58%
Dallas 35% at Philadelphia 65%
Denver 69% at San Diego 31%
Green Bay 58% at Buffalo 42%
Houston 8% at Indianapolis 92%
Jacksonville 5% at Baltimore 95%
Miami 25% at New England 75%
Minnesota 20% at Detroit 80%
New Orleans 62% at Chicago 38%
NY Jets 48% at Tennessee 52%
Oakland 2% at Kansas City 98%
Pittsburgh 56% at Atlanta 44%
San Francisco 35% at Seattle 65%
Tampa Bay 30% at Carolina 70%
Washington 40% at NY Giants 60%

WEEK 16
Atlanta 16% at New Orleans 84%
Baltimore 55% at Houston 45%
Buffalo 62% at Oakland 38%
Cleveland 53% at Carolina 47%
Denver 66% at Cincinnati 34%
Detroit 64% at Chicago 36%
Green Bay 89% at Tampa Bay 11%
Indianapolis 53% at Dallas 47%
Kansas City 47% at Pittsburgh 53%
Minnesota 25% at Miami 75%
New England 65% at NY Jets 35%
NY Giants 45% at St. Louis 55%
Philadelphia 60% at Washington 40%
San Diego 35% at San Francisco 65%
Seattle 53% at Arizona 47%
Tennessee 47% at Jacksonville 53%

WEEK 17
Arizona 35% at San Francisco 65%
Buffalo 9% at New England 91%
Carolina 35% at Atlanta 65%
Chicago 43% at Minnesota 57%
Cincinnati 30% at Pittsburgh 70%
Cleveland 30% at Baltimore 70%
Dallas 58% at Washington 42%
Detroit 35% at Green Bay 65%
Indianapolis 87% at Tennessee 13%
Jacksonville 28% at Houston 72%
New Orleans 78% at Tampa Bay 22%
NY Jets 30% at Miami 70%
Oakland 1% at Denver 99%
Philadelphia 63% at NY Giants 37%
San Diego 35% at Kansas City 65%
St. Louis 7% at Seattle 93%