The Buccaneers and Falcons play today. These teams met, recall, in a Thursday night game in the Georgia Dome, back in Week 3. Atlanta won that one in a laugher – 56-14, and it could have been worse. It was the worst blowout of the season.
With that in mind, what should expectations be for the rematch? Is Atlanta simply way better than Tampa Bay, and there’s another butt kicking coming up? Or do the Bucs see that one as a test of their manhood, and they come out with an extra intensity to make sure this game isn’t more of the same?
Setting the previous game aside, my gut feel is that Atlanta, at 2-6, isn’t a whole lot better than Tampa Bay, and that this should be a close, competitive game, with probably both teams scoring in the low 20s.
The historical record, however, indicates that when a team clobbers another team, it would be a near miracle for that lesser team to come back and win in the rematch.
In the last 20 years, there have been 52 other rematches of teams after one team won the first game by 30-plus points. In the rematches, the original winner won every time. A quarter of those games were by blowouts again (20-plus points).
Thirty of the 52 rematches were won by at least 10 points. Just short of 58 percent. And 40 percent of the games (21 of 52) were settled by 7 points or less.
BLOWOUT REMATCHES | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Winner | Loser | 1st Game | 2nd Game |
1994 | 49ers | Falcons | 42-3 | 50-14 |
1994 | Raiders | Broncos | 48-16 | 23-13 |
1994 | Cowboys | Cardinals | 38-3 | 28-21 |
1995 | 49ers | Rams | 44-10 | 41-13 |
1995 | 49ers | Falcons | 41-10 | 28-27 |
1995 | Cowboys | Giants | 35-0 | 21-20 |
1995 | Dolphins | Jets | 52-14 | 17-16 |
1996 | 49ers | Rams | 34-0 | 28-11 |
1996 | Packers | Bears | 37-6 | 28-17 |
1996 | Panthers | Rams | 45-13 | 20-10 |
1996 | Rams | Falcons | 59-16 | 34-27 |
1996 | Packers | Buccaneers | 34-3 | 13-7 |
1998 | 49ers | Saints | 31-0 | 31-20 |
1998 | Cowboys | Eagles | 34-0 | 13-9 |
1998 | Jets | Colts | 44-6 | 24-23 |
1999 | Jaguars | Bengals | 41-10 | 24-7 |
1999 | Rams | Saints | 43-12 | 30-14 |
1999 | Steelers | Browns | 43-0 | 16-15 |
2000 | Ravens | Bengals | 37-0 | 27-7 |
2000 | Buccaneers | Bears | 41-0 | 13-10 |
2000 | Chiefs | Chargers | 42-10 | 17-16 |
2001 | Patriots | Colts | 44-13 | 38-17 |
2001 | Rams | Panthers | 48-14 | 38-32 |
2002 | Falcons | Panthers | 30-0 | 41-0 |
2002 | Eagles | Cowboys | 44-13 | 27-3 |
2002 | Patriots | Jets | 44-7 | 30-17 |
2002 | Eagles | Redskins | 37-7 | 34-21 |
2002 | Patriots | Bills | 38-7 | 27-17 |
2003 | Bills | Patriots | 31-0 | 31-0 |
2003 | Seahawks | Cardinals | 38-0 | 28-10 |
2004 | Seahawks | 49ers | 34-0 | 42-27 |
2004 | Colts | Texans | 49-14 | 23-14 |
2005 | Giants | Redskins | 36-0 | 35-20 |
2005 | Bears | Lions | 38-6 | 19-13 |
2006 | Jaguars | Titans | 37-7 | 24-17 |
2006 | Bears | Seahawks | 37-6 | 27-24 |
2007 | Patriots | Bills | 38-7 | 56-10 |
2007 | Chargers | Broncos | 41-3 | 23-3 |
2007 | Steelers | Ravens | 38-7 | 27-21 |
2008 | Packers | Bears | 37-3 | 20-17 |
2009 | Chargers | Chiefs | 37-7 | 43-14 |
2009 | 49ers | Rams | 35-0 | 28-6 |
2009 | Broncos | Chiefs | 44-13 | 44-24 |
2009 | Ravens | Browns | 34-3 | 16-0 |
2009 | Jets | Bengals | 37-0 | 24-14 |
2009 | Saints | Buccaneers | 38-7 | 20-17 |
2010 | Raiders | Broncos | 59-14 | 39-23 |
2010 | Patriots | Jets | 45-3 | 28-21 |
2011 | Texans | Titans | 41-7 | 23-22 |
2012 | Broncos | Raiders | 37-6 | 26-13 |
2012 | Ravens | Bengals | 44-13 | 23-17 |
2013 | Colts | Jaguars | 37-3 | 30-10 |
2014 | Falcons | Buccaneers | 56-14 | ??? |
—Ian Allan