Two thirds of rushing touchdowns come from within 5 yards of the goal line, so it makes sense to pay plenty of attention to how teams operate in that part of the field. If a back isn’t getting many touches in that part of the field, it will be hard for him to reach double-digit touchdowns.
(Exact number for the 2013 season, by the way, was 266 of the 408 rushing touchdowns being of 1-5 yards.)
So let’s take a moment to look at how teams are performing thus far in that area. I’ve got all the data showing up below. For study purposes here, we’ve included 2-point conversion plays, even though they’re technically not “plays” in the official sense of the word. But they’re important, so we’re including them. That help paint the picture of what teams are doing.
I’ll offer a dozen observations. Then I’ll dump the numbers below, so you can test some of your own theories.
If you want teams that run the ball a lot around the goal line, look in the AFC North. Three teams have attemped at least 19 running plays inside the 5, and they’re all from that division. The Browns with 22. The former Browns with 21. And the Bengals with 19.
Three teams have used only one ball carrier inside the 5. These guys have gotten all of their team’s carries in that part of the field. DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte and Darren McFadden.
Seven other running backs have logged at least 70 percent of their team’s rushing attempts inside the 5: Marshawn Lynch, Matt Asiata, Steven Jackson, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris and Joique Bell.
The Carolina Panthers have the most diverse offense. They’ve run the ball 14 times in that part of the field, and those carries have been handled by 8 different players. (They’ve had some injuries, putting backups in there, and they also use multiple backs.)
Jerick McKinnon is running for plenty of yards for Minnesota, but he doesn’t have a rushing attempt inside the 5 all year. Matt Asiata has 8. So in a TD-only format, Asiata makes more sense than McKinnon (and they’ll both make no sense if Adrian Peterson comes back next week).
The Steelers, oddly, might have the best running back in the NFL right now, but they’re underusing LeVeon Bell, with their last 21 touchdowns all coming on passes. They’ve run the ball only 8 times inside the 5 (and LeGarrette Blount has handled 3 of those runs).
Ahmad Bradshaw is catching lots of passes around the goal-line for the Colts, but Trent Richardson has over twice as many rushing attempts in that part of the field (8-3).
Carlos Hyde hasn’t started a game as a pro yet, but he was 2 more rushing attempts inside the 5 than Frank Gore.
Thirty four running backs have at least 5 carries inside the 5. Of that group, three have averaged at least 2 yards per carry – Jeremy Hill, Eddie Lacy and Mark Ingram (thank you, SEC). Three have averaged under a half yard per carry – LeVeon Bell, Lorenzo Taliaferro and Matt Forte.
Of that same group, six running backs have scored on over half of their running plays: Andre Williams, Asiata, Ellington, Foster, Murray and Lynch. Five have scored on under 20 percent of their carries: Bell, Vereen, Forsett, Forte and Stacy.
Teams with the fewest running plays inside the 5: Oakland (5), Chicago (6), Green Bay (6), Atlanta (7) and Dallas (7).
Teams scored on less than 25 percent of their carries in that part of the field: Pittsburgh (none), New England (17%), Chicago (17%), San Francisco (22%) and Baltimore (24%).
| MOST RUSHING ATTEMPTS INSIDE 5, TEAMS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Cleveland | 22 | 30 | 1.4 | 8 |
| Baltimore | 21 | 15 | .7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati | 19 | 31 | 1.6 | 10 |
| New England | 18 | 16 | .9 | 3 |
| NY Giants | 17 | 16 | .9 | 7 |
| NY Jets | 17 | 12 | .7 | 6 |
| New Orleans | 16 | 30 | 1.9 | 9 |
| Carolina | 14 | 3 | .2 | 4 |
| Arizona | 13 | 12 | .9 | 6 |
| Miami | 13 | 16 | 1.2 | 4 |
| Seattle | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 7 |
| Kansas City | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 6 |
| Indianapolis | 12 | 12 | 1.0 | 3 |
| Washington | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 6 |
| Denver | 10 | 4 | .4 | 5 |
| Detroit | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 5 |
| St. Louis | 10 | 5 | .5 | 3 |
| Houston | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 5 |
| San Francisco | 9 | 7 | .8 | 2 |
| Jacksonville | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | -7 | -.9 | 0 |
| Dallas | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 4 |
| Atlanta | 7 | 1 | .1 | 3 |
| Buffalo | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 4 |
| Green Bay | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 6 | 5 | .8 | 3 |
| Philadelphia | 6 | 2 | .3 | 2 |
| Chicago | 6 | 2 | .3 | 1 |
| Oakland | 5 | 4 | .8 | 2 |
| San Diego | 3 | 1 | .3 | 1 |
| MOST RUNS INSIDE 5, INDIVIDUALS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 6 |
| Ben Tate, Clev. | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 3 |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 5 |
| Chris Ivory, NYJ | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 4 |
| Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 4 |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG | 8 | 4 | .5 | 2 |
| Lamar Miller, Mia. | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 3 |
| Trent Richardson, Ind. | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Alfred Morris, Wash. | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Matt Asiata, Minn. | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Justin Forsett, Balt. | 7 | 6 | .9 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen, N.E. | 7 | 4 | .6 | 1 |
| Joique Bell, Det. | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 3 |
| Arian Foster, Hou. | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 4 |
| DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 4 |
| Terrance West, Clev. | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt. | 6 | 1 | .2 | 2 |
| Andre Williams, NYG | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Knile Davis, K.C. | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Zac Stacy, St.L. | 6 | 3 | .5 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson, Atl. | 6 | 4 | .7 | 3 |
| Matt Forte, Chi. | 6 | 2 | .3 | 1 |
| TEAM-BY-TEAM BREAKDOWNS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Ariz. | Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 3 |
| Ariz. | Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 1 | .3 | 1 |
| Ariz. | Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Ariz. | Marion Grice | 2 | 1 | .5 | 1 |
| Atl. | Steven Jackson | 6 | 4 | .7 | 3 |
| Atl. | Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Balt. | Justin Forsett | 7 | 6 | .9 | 1 |
| Balt. | Bernard Pierce | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Balt. | Lorenzo Taliaferro | 6 | 1 | .2 | 2 |
| Balt. | Joe Flacco | 2 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Buff. | Fred Jackson | 3 | -1 | -.3 | 2 |
| Buff. | Anthony Dixon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Buff. | EJ Manuel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Buff. | Frank Summers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Car. | Jonathan Stewart | 4 | -2 | -.5 | 2 |
| Car. | Cam Newton | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Car. | Darrin Reaves | 2 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Car. | Mike Tolbert | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Car. | Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Car. | DeAngelo Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Car. | Derek Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Car. | Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Chi. | Matt Forte | 6 | 2 | .3 | 1 |
| Cin. | Jeremy Hill | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Cin. | Giovani Bernard | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 4 |
| Cin. | Andy Dalton | 3 | 2 | .7 | 2 |
| Clev. | Ben Tate | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 3 |
| Clev. | Terrance West | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Clev. | Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Clev. | Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Clev. | Ray Agnew | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Dall. | DeMarco Murray | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 4 |
| Den. | Montee Ball | 4 | 0 | .0 | 1 |
| Den. | Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 1 | .3 | 2 |
| Den. | Juwan Thompson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Det. | Joique Bell | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 3 |
| Det. | Matthew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Det. | Theo Riddick | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| G.B. | Eddie Lacy | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 2 |
| G.B. | Jonathan Kuhn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Hou. | Arian Foster | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 4 |
| Hou. | Alfred Blue | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Hou. | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Ind. | Trent Richardson | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Ind. | Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 2 | .7 | 1 |
| Ind. | Andrew Luck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jac. | Toby Gerhart | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Jac. | Denard Robinson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Jac. | Storm Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 2 |
| K.C. | Jamaal Charles | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 3 |
| K.C. | Knile Davis | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Mia. | Lamar Miller | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 3 |
| Mia. | Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Mia. | Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Minn. | Matt Asiata | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Minn. | Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| N.E. | Shane Vereen | 7 | 4 | .6 | 1 |
| N.E. | Stevan Ridley | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 2 |
| N.E. | Tom Brady | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| N.E. | Jonas Gray | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| N.E. | James Develin | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| N.O. | Mark Ingram | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 5 |
| N.O. | Khiry Robinson | 2 | 0 | .0 | 1 |
| N.O. | Pierre Thomas | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| N.O. | Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| N.O. | Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| NYG | Rashad Jennings | 8 | 4 | .5 | 2 |
| NYG | Andre Williams | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 4 |
| NYG | Eli Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| NYG | Henry Hynoski | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| NYG | Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| NYJ | Chris Ivory | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 4 |
| NYJ | Bilal Powell | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| NYJ | Geno Smith | 3 | -2 | -.7 | 1 |
| NYJ | Chris Johnson | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| NYJ | Percy Harvin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Oak. | Darren McFadden | 5 | 4 | .8 | 2 |
| Phil. | LeSean McCoy | 4 | -2 | -.5 | 2 |
| Phil. | Chris Polk | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Pitt. | LeVeon Bell | 5 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Pitt. | LeGarrette Blount | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
| S.D. | Branden Oliver | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| S.D. | Danny Woodhead | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| S.D. | Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| S.F. | Carlos Hyde | 5 | 3 | .6 | 1 |
| S.F. | Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| S.F. | Colin Kaepernick | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Sea. | Marshawn Lynch | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 6 |
| Sea. | Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| St.L. | Zac Stacy | 6 | 3 | .5 | 1 |
| St.L. | Benny Cunningham | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 2 |
| St.L. | Tre Mason | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| T.B. | Bobby Rainey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| T.B. | Josh McCown | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 |
| T.B. | Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| T.B. | Mike James | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Tenn. | Bishop Sankey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Tenn. | Shonn Greene | 2 | 1 | .5 | 1 |
| Tenn. | Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tenn. | Leon Washington | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| Wash. | Alfred Morris | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Wash. | Darrel Young | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Wash. | Robert Griffin III | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Wash. | Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
—Ian Allan