Fred Jackson isn’t going to play in tonight’s game. He won’t be active. This changes the values of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon.
Granted, these aren’t great backs, and this isn’t a great matchup. I have much respect for Miami’s defense. But the pickings are slim at this position, so some unfortunate souls out there might have to use one of these backs.
With Jackson out there, these guys will get more touches now. In particular, I have interest in how Bryce Brown potentially could be used in the passing game. He caught 6 passes for 65 yards last week. Dixon hasn’t caught any passes in the last two weeks; that’s not his thing.
Jackson, recall, is a great receiver himself. So with him out there, I think there’s a chance Brown has another 40-yard receiving game in him. So if you’re in a PPR format (or total yards format), I think it makes sense to consider Brown, even in this crappy matchup.
I have upgraded Brown to 47 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards and .27 of a TD. That’s makes him the No. 29 running back in a standard format, and the No. 21 running back if you’re using PPR. Just 42nd in the TD-only format. Yesterday I had Brown 44th in standard, 44th in PPR and 59th in TD-only.
Dixon also climbs. From 47th to 37th in standard format, 48th to 40th in PPR and 52nd to 40th in TD-only.
For rushing, I think these guys will split time. Dixon has been used more the last two weeks. He’s the big plodder, recall, who was mostly a special teams guy with the 49ers. Against the Jets (good run defense) he carried 22 times for 44 yards (ugh), while Brown carried 7 times for 15 yards (also lousy).
Against Kansas City, Dixon punched out 62 yards on 9 attempts (I never thought he had a game like that in him), while Brown carried 7 times for 35 yards, with the one unfortunate, game-losing fumble. With the Bills leading 10-3 and Brown speeding towards the end zone, a defensive back came in from the side and cleverly tomahawked the ball out of his hands. Scott Chandler dropped the bouncing ball, it went out of the back of the end zone, and Kansas City was given a much better opportunity to come back and win that game. It was a game changer.
But Brown is a talented dude. I don’t think they’re giving up on him. I thin he’ll play about as much as Dixon tonight, which is why I’m slotting him for a few more yards.
If the ball gets inside the 5, though, they’ve far more likely to use Dixon to try to pound out a short-yardage touchdown. So the big fella is more likely to score.
The new stat projections will be loaded onto the site shortly. They don’t include all updates on all players. There are no weather adjustments yet, for example. And I haven’t tried to track down all of the injuries yet. Arian Foster for one is now looking less likely to play, so I’m guessing Alfred Blue will move up tomorrow. I’ll get those all in before the end of the day tomorrow.
But definitely move up Brown and Dixon on your draft board.
—Ian Allan