Fantasy Index

Scheduletron

November 19, 2014

Strength of schedule

Soft defenses coming up for Cowboys

With Strength of Schedule, we usually look at wins and losses. This time around, we’ll look simply at points. That is, you take the average number of points allowed by each defense, look at the final six weeks for each team and see which offenses are most likely to benefit from easier schedules.

Based on the way teams have played thus far, it looks like the Cowboys, Lions, Titans and Saints will see the softest defenses the rest of the way. Those offenses might overachieve a little, considering whom they’re playing.

The Patriots, Broncos, Raiders and Jets, meanwhile, on paper should play the hardest schedule. Those other teams are tending to play opponents allowing over 25 points per game. These teams are playing against defense that thus far are under 21 points per game.

In ballpark terms, there’s about a 20 percent difference in the schedule the Cowboys will play, relative to New England, Denver and Oakland.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 12-17)
RkTeamPoints
1.Dallas26.1
2.Detroit25.4
3.Tennessee25.3
4.New Orleans25.3
5.NY Giants25.2
6.Houston24.5
7.Washington24.2
8.Carolina24.0
9.Tampa Bay23.6
10.Philadelphia23.5
11.Indianapolis23.3
12.Buffalo23.2
13.Minnesota23.1
14.Cleveland23.1
15.Cincinnati23.0
16.Miami22.9
17.St. Louis22.8
18.Kansas City22.7
19.Atlanta22.7
20.Jacksonville22.6
21.Pittsburgh22.4
22.Green Bay22.2
23.Arizona22.1
24.San Francisco22.0
25.Baltimore21.8
26.Seattle21.4
27.Chicago21.3
28.San Diego21.1
29.NY Jets20.8
30.Oakland20.7
31.Denver20.6
32.New England20.4

Many fantasy leagues, of course, will be over before Week 17. For those groups, here are the numbers for Weeks 12-16.

The numbers are pretty similar. The Giants move up into that top 4 (easiest schedules). The Seahawks replace the Jets in the bottom 4.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 12-16)
RkTeamPoints
1.Dallas26.2
2.Detroit25.9
3.Tennessee25.3
4.NY Giants25.2
5.New Orleans24.8
6.Washington24.7
7.Cleveland24.1
8.Houston23.7
9.Carolina23.7
10.Green Bay23.5
11.Buffalo23.5
12.Kansas City23.4
13.Tampa Bay23.3
14.St. Louis23.1
15.Indianapolis23.0
16.Jacksonville23.0
17.Philadelphia22.9
18.San Francisco22.9
19.Cincinnati22.8
20.Pittsburgh22.5
21.Arizona22.3
22.Baltimore22.2
23.Miami22.2
24.Minnesota22.0
25.San Diego21.9
26.Atlanta21.7
27.NY Jets21.4
28.Chicago21.1
29.Seattle20.5
30.New England20.4
31.Oakland20.3
32.Denver19.4

—Ian Allan

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