We’re at the point in the year where it starts making more sense to look at the schedule. With defenses and kickers in particular. Look at Seattle, for example. Four of the next five are against Arizona and San Francisco, so it doesn’t make much sense to be counting on big production from Steven Hauschka or the Seahawks Defense.
Better to find a lesser defense with a more favorable schedule.
With that in mind, he’s a load of strength of schedule charts to consider for defenses.
I’m looking at just interceptions and sacks. They tend to be more reliable and numerous than fumbles and touchdowns scored on returns.
I will throw a variety of week combinations at you. Some leagues run through 16; others run all the way through. Some teams may be locked into a defense for this week but anxious to look at Weeks 13-16. Whatever.
For all charts, the Carolina/Pittsburgh numbers have been tweaked slightly. Those teams have played 11 games, so I have reduced them by 9 percent to make them match the other clubs. In the Weeks 12-16 charts, I had to increase the end totals of those clubs by 25 percent (since they’re playing only four games in there, instead of five).
On all of these, I assumed 2 points for interceptions and 1 point per sack.
Anyway. Away we go. For Weeks 12-16, numbers suggest the Giants, Titans and Lions play the easiest schedules the rest of the way. Atlanta, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Buffalo have the worst schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Defenses) Weeks 12-16 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
NY Giants | 56 | 144 | 256 |
Tennessee | 60 | 125 | 245 |
Detroit | 53 | 123 | 229 |
Indianapolis | 50 | 121 | 221 |
Chicago | 48 | 122 | 218 |
Minnesota | 40 | 137 | 217 |
Washington | 50 | 117 | 217 |
Baltimore | 49 | 117 | 215 |
Dallas | 61 | 91 | 213 |
Houston | 52 | 106 | 210 |
Green Bay | 44 | 121 | 209 |
Carolina | 49 | 110 | 208 |
Tampa Bay | 43 | 120 | 206 |
New England | 39 | 126 | 204 |
NY Jets | 40 | 124 | 204 |
New Orleans | 44 | 115 | 202 |
Oakland | 29 | 141 | 199 |
Philadelphia | 44 | 111 | 199 |
St. Louis | 49 | 97 | 195 |
Jacksonville | 48 | 96 | 192 |
Miami | 45 | 102 | 192 |
Cleveland | 43 | 104 | 190 |
San Francisco | 43 | 99 | 185 |
Arizona | 33 | 118 | 184 |
Cincinnati | 40 | 100 | 181 |
San Diego | 37 | 106 | 180 |
Seattle | 34 | 111 | 179 |
Denver | 34 | 108 | 176 |
Buffalo | 41 | 89 | 171 |
Pittsburgh | 40 | 90 | 170 |
Kansas City | 43 | 78 | 165 |
Atlanta | 29 | 94 | 153 |
Suppose, though, that you want to just forget about this week. You’re already locked into using Kansas City against Oakland or whatever. You want to look only at Weeks 13-16. That’s four games for each team.
Using those four weeks only, the easiest schedules again belong to the Giants, Lions and Titans. The worst schedules seem to go to the Bills, San Diego, Falcons and Kansas City (those are the teams who’ll be playing teams that thus far haven’t given up many sacks or interceptions).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Defenses) Weeks 13-16 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
NY Giants | 48 | 125 | 221 |
Detroit | 48 | 107 | 203 |
Tennessee | 46 | 110 | 202 |
Minnesota | 36 | 115 | 187 |
Baltimore | 39 | 103 | 181 |
Houston | 43 | 93 | 179 |
Washington | 45 | 85 | 175 |
New Orleans | 36 | 101 | 172 |
Dallas | 50 | 69 | 169 |
Chicago | 36 | 95 | 167 |
Carolina | 39 | 88 | 166 |
NY Jets | 34 | 98 | 166 |
Oakland | 25 | 116 | 166 |
Miami | 36 | 91 | 163 |
St. Louis | 41 | 78 | 160 |
Tampa Bay | 31 | 96 | 158 |
Jacksonville | 38 | 81 | 157 |
New England | 30 | 95 | 155 |
Arizona | 28 | 98 | 154 |
Philadelphia | 34 | 86 | 154 |
Green Bay | 32 | 89 | 153 |
Seattle | 29 | 95 | 153 |
Cleveland | 34 | 84 | 152 |
Indianapolis | 35 | 82 | 152 |
Cincinnati | 31 | 80 | 143 |
Denver | 27 | 83 | 137 |
Pittsburgh | 32 | 72 | 136 |
San Francisco | 30 | 71 | 131 |
Kansas City | 31 | 66 | 129 |
Atlanta | 24 | 79 | 128 |
San Diego | 27 | 73 | 127 |
Buffalo | 30 | 60 | 120 |
Finally, there may be some guys out there who play all the way through. If you want to look at Weeks 12-17, the best schedules belong to the Giants, Titans and Texans. Worst go to Buffalo, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Defenses) Weeks 12-17 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
NY Giants | 70 | 159 | 299 |
Tennessee | 70 | 140 | 280 |
Houston | 67 | 145 | 279 |
Chicago | 60 | 154 | 274 |
Dallas | 74 | 119 | 267 |
Indianapolis | 60 | 146 | 266 |
Minnesota | 52 | 161 | 265 |
Detroit | 57 | 145 | 259 |
Green Bay | 53 | 152 | 258 |
New Orleans | 56 | 142 | 253 |
Washington | 58 | 136 | 252 |
Carolina | 58 | 130 | 245 |
Miami | 56 | 131 | 243 |
NY Jets | 47 | 149 | 243 |
Philadelphia | 55 | 133 | 243 |
New England | 45 | 152 | 242 |
Tampa Bay | 53 | 134 | 240 |
Baltimore | 54 | 132 | 240 |
Seattle | 44 | 144 | 232 |
Jacksonville | 57 | 116 | 230 |
Oakland | 38 | 152 | 228 |
Arizona | 38 | 150 | 226 |
St. Louis | 54 | 117 | 225 |
Cleveland | 51 | 118 | 220 |
Cincinnati | 46 | 128 | 219 |
San Diego | 41 | 131 | 213 |
Denver | 46 | 120 | 212 |
San Francisco | 48 | 115 | 211 |
Atlanta | 39 | 124 | 201 |
Pittsburgh | 49 | 102 | 200 |
Kansas City | 51 | 97 | 200 |
Buffalo | 46 | 105 | 197 |
But wait. There’s more.
Let’s take the above information and average it with how teams are currently playing. That is, if a team is averaging 2 sacks per game, and it’s remaining games are against teams allowing 4 sacks, we’d put them down for 3 sacks.
Doing that for both sacks and interceptions, it works out this way.
The Bills, Titans and Lions project to have the best defenses in Weeks 12-16. Oakland, Seattle and San Diego project to have the worst defenses.
So strange to say, but the correct route with the Seahawks – the first defense selected in most fantasy leagues – could be to quietly place them on the waiver wire. Maybe you’ll get lucky and one of the opponents in your league will pick them up and use them.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Defenses) Weeks 12-16 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
Buffalo | 1.01 | 2.84 | 4.86 |
Tennessee | 1.05 | 2.70 | 4.80 |
Detroit | 1.13 | 2.53 | 4.79 |
Green Bay | 1.14 | 2.46 | 4.74 |
NY Giants | 1.21 | 2.29 | 4.71 |
Minnesota | .90 | 2.87 | 4.67 |
Miami | .95 | 2.52 | 4.42 |
Philadelphia | .79 | 2.76 | 4.34 |
Cleveland | 1.13 | 2.04 | 4.30 |
San Francisco | 1.23 | 1.84 | 4.30 |
New England | .94 | 2.41 | 4.29 |
Houston | 1.07 | 2.11 | 4.25 |
Arizona | 1.08 | 2.08 | 4.24 |
Indianapolis | .90 | 2.41 | 4.21 |
Chicago | .93 | 2.32 | 4.18 |
Denver | .84 | 2.43 | 4.11 |
Baltimore | .79 | 2.42 | 4.00 |
Carolina | .90 | 2.15 | 3.94 |
Dallas | 1.11 | 1.71 | 3.93 |
Tampa Bay | .83 | 2.20 | 3.86 |
Jacksonville | .73 | 2.36 | 3.82 |
New Orleans | .74 | 2.25 | 3.72 |
Washington | .65 | 2.42 | 3.72 |
NY Jets | .55 | 2.59 | 3.69 |
Kansas City | .63 | 2.28 | 3.55 |
St. Louis | .79 | 1.92 | 3.50 |
Cincinnati | .90 | 1.65 | 3.46 |
Pittsburgh | .76 | 1.81 | 3.34 |
Atlanta | .74 | 1.59 | 3.08 |
San Diego | .57 | 1.91 | 3.05 |
Seattle | .64 | 1.76 | 3.04 |
Oakland | .54 | 1.91 | 2.99 |
Following the same pattern as previously, suppose you don’t care about this week. You already like the matchup of the Colts hosting the Jaguars are whatever.
For Weeks 13-16, the current performance numbers suggest the Lions, Giants, Titans and Vikings will have the best defenses. The Chargers, Raiders, Falcons and Seahawks appear to be the worst:
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Defenses) Weeks 13-16 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
Detroit | 1.20 | 2.64 | 5.04 |
NY Giants | 1.25 | 2.41 | 4.91 |
Tennessee | 1.03 | 2.83 | 4.88 |
Minnesota | .95 | 2.94 | 4.84 |
Buffalo | .98 | 2.70 | 4.65 |
Green Bay | 1.10 | 2.36 | 4.56 |
Miami | .95 | 2.64 | 4.54 |
Houston | 1.09 | 2.21 | 4.39 |
Arizona | 1.10 | 2.13 | 4.33 |
Cleveland | 1.13 | 2.05 | 4.30 |
Philadelphia | .78 | 2.73 | 4.28 |
New England | .93 | 2.34 | 4.19 |
Baltimore | .79 | 2.54 | 4.11 |
Chicago | .90 | 2.29 | 4.09 |
San Francisco | 1.18 | 1.74 | 4.09 |
Denver | .84 | 2.39 | 4.06 |
Carolina | .90 | 2.15 | 3.94 |
Dallas | 1.13 | 1.66 | 3.91 |
Indianapolis | .84 | 2.23 | 3.90 |
Jacksonville | .73 | 2.41 | 3.86 |
New Orleans | .74 | 2.37 | 3.85 |
Tampa Bay | .79 | 2.20 | 3.78 |
Washington | .71 | 2.31 | 3.74 |
NY Jets | .58 | 2.58 | 3.73 |
St. Louis | .81 | 1.93 | 3.55 |
Kansas City | .59 | 2.33 | 3.51 |
Cincinnati | .89 | 1.65 | 3.44 |
Pittsburgh | .76 | 1.81 | 3.34 |
Seattle | .66 | 1.84 | 3.16 |
Atlanta | .76 | 1.64 | 3.15 |
Oakland | .56 | 1.95 | 3.08 |
San Diego | .54 | 1.76 | 2.84 |
Finally, maybe there’s a guy or two out there who wants all remaining six weeks. If there is such a reader out there, this one is for you …
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Defenses) Weeks 12-17 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Int | Sack | Points |
Green Bay | 1.14 | 2.52 | 4.80 |
Buffalo | .98 | 2.83 | 4.79 |
Minnesota | .93 | 2.84 | 4.71 |
Tennessee | 1.03 | 2.62 | 4.68 |
Detroit | 1.08 | 2.51 | 4.66 |
NY Giants | 1.23 | 2.18 | 4.64 |
Miami | .97 | 2.59 | 4.53 |
Houston | 1.11 | 2.26 | 4.48 |
Philadelphia | .81 | 2.76 | 4.38 |
Chicago | .95 | 2.38 | 4.28 |
Arizona | 1.07 | 2.15 | 4.28 |
New England | .93 | 2.42 | 4.27 |
Cleveland | 1.13 | 1.98 | 4.23 |
Indianapolis | .90 | 2.42 | 4.22 |
San Francisco | 1.20 | 1.81 | 4.21 |
Denver | .88 | 2.35 | 4.12 |
Dallas | 1.12 | 1.79 | 4.03 |
Carolina | .89 | 2.13 | 3.90 |
Baltimore | .75 | 2.35 | 3.85 |
Jacksonville | .73 | 2.37 | 3.82 |
New Orleans | .76 | 2.29 | 3.81 |
Tampa Bay | .84 | 2.12 | 3.80 |
NY Jets | .54 | 2.59 | 3.68 |
Washington | .63 | 2.38 | 3.65 |
Kansas City | .63 | 2.31 | 3.57 |
Cincinnati | .88 | 1.71 | 3.48 |
St. Louis | .75 | 1.93 | 3.43 |
Pittsburgh | .77 | 1.76 | 3.31 |
Atlanta | .77 | 1.69 | 3.23 |
Seattle | .67 | 1.85 | 3.18 |
San Diego | .54 | 1.94 | 3.03 |
Oakland | .57 | 1.77 | 2.90 |
On each of those remaining charts, as a reminder, those are just numbers. They do not factor in that teams are constantly changing. Cincinnati was terrible against the run a few weeks back, but with Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict getting healthy, it should be a lot better going forward. The Rams had only one sack in their first five games, but they’ve had 18 in their last five, so there’s kind of a worst to first thing going on there.
Anyway, some data for you to chew on.
Best of luck to all in their Week 12 games.
—Ian Allan