With the Dolphins having beaten the Jets, Week 13 is complete. Every team has played 12 games, and every team has exactly a quarter of its games left.
With that in mind, a look at Strength of Schedule.
For starters, I’ll toss out that the Broncos not only are an impressive 9-3, they’ve done it despite playing the league’s hardest schedule. They’ve played Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Kansas City (twice), San Diego, New England and Indianapolis. Among the strong teams, New England is also up there.
The Jets and Raiders tie for the 2nd-hardest schedule. Their 12 games have been against opponents that have gone 74-58 in their other games. Note that this is after setting aside their own games (Oakland’s opponents are 85-59 when you factor in that they’re also 11-1 against the Raiders themselves).
The Steelers, Browns, Bucs and Cowboys have benefitted from playing the league’s easiest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Weeks 1-13 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Denver | 75 | 57 | 0 | .568 |
NY Jets | 74 | 58 | 0 | .561 |
Oakland | 74 | 58 | 0 | .561 |
New England | 73 | 58 | 1 | .557 |
St. Louis | 73 | 59 | 0 | .553 |
NY Giants | 72 | 60 | 0 | .545 |
Arizona | 71 | 61 | 0 | .538 |
San Francisco | 71 | 61 | 0 | .538 |
New Orleans | 69 | 61 | 2 | .530 |
Carolina | 70 | 62 | 0 | .530 |
Kansas City | 69 | 63 | 0 | .523 |
Miami | 69 | 63 | 0 | .523 |
Green Bay | 68 | 63 | 1 | .519 |
Jacksonville | 68 | 63 | 1 | .519 |
Seattle | 68 | 63 | 1 | .519 |
Tennessee | 68 | 63 | 1 | .519 |
Buffalo | 68 | 64 | 0 | .515 |
Baltimore | 65 | 64 | 3 | .504 |
Chicago | 66 | 65 | 1 | .504 |
Detroit | 65 | 66 | 1 | .496 |
Indianapolis | 63 | 68 | 1 | .481 |
Minnesota | 63 | 68 | 1 | .481 |
Philadelphia | 62 | 69 | 1 | .473 |
San Diego | 61 | 71 | 0 | .462 |
Cincinnati | 60 | 72 | 0 | .455 |
Washington | 60 | 72 | 0 | .455 |
Houston | 59 | 72 | 1 | .451 |
Atlanta | 57 | 73 | 2 | .439 |
Dallas | 58 | 74 | 0 | .439 |
Tampa Bay | 55 | 75 | 2 | .424 |
Cleveland | 54 | 77 | 1 | .413 |
Pittsburgh | 53 | 78 | 1 | .405 |
Looking instead at what’s coming, I see that the Titans and Saints project to play the easiest remaining schedules. Tennessee’s remaining opponents are against teams that right now are a combined 15-33. New Orleans’ opponents are just 15-32-1, which is far softer than the other leader in the NFC South (Atlanta, whose opponents are a combined 24-23-1).
Three teams that currently project to be in the playoffs (San Diego, Seattle, Cincinnati) are saddled with tough closing schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Weeks 14-17 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 15 | 33 | 0 | .313 |
New Orleans | 15 | 32 | 1 | .323 |
Carolina | 19 | 29 | 0 | .396 |
Houston | 19 | 29 | 0 | .396 |
NY Giants | 19 | 29 | 0 | .396 |
Detroit | 21 | 27 | 0 | .438 |
Jacksonville | 21 | 27 | 0 | .438 |
Baltimore | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Green Bay | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Minnesota | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Philadelphia | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Indianapolis | 23 | 25 | 0 | .479 |
Miami | 23 | 25 | 0 | .479 |
NY Jets | 23 | 25 | 0 | .479 |
St. Louis | 23 | 25 | 0 | .479 |
New England | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
Atlanta | 24 | 23 | 1 | .510 |
Denver | 24 | 23 | 1 | .510 |
Dallas | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Kansas City | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Washington | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Tampa Bay | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
Chicago | 26 | 22 | 0 | .542 |
San Francisco | 26 | 22 | 0 | .542 |
Arizona | 27 | 21 | 0 | .563 |
Cleveland | 26 | 20 | 2 | .563 |
Buffalo | 28 | 20 | 0 | .583 |
Pittsburgh | 28 | 18 | 2 | .604 |
Cincinnati | 30 | 18 | 0 | .625 |
Oakland | 30 | 18 | 0 | .625 |
Seattle | 30 | 18 | 0 | .625 |
San Diego | 32 | 16 | 0 | .667 |
Most fantasy leagues are done before Week 17, so here’s a look at the same data for just Weeks 14-16.
Titans have by far the easiest schedule on deck (Jaguars and the two New York teams). Among good teams, I see Lions, Saints and Ravens up there.
The Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, Bengals and Cowboys are all notable teams, and they have the hardest remaining schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Weeks 14-16 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 7 | 29 | 0 | .194 |
NY Giants | 10 | 26 | 0 | .278 |
Detroit | 12 | 24 | 0 | .333 |
New Orleans | 13 | 22 | 1 | .375 |
Carolina | 14 | 22 | 0 | .389 |
Green Bay | 14 | 22 | 0 | .389 |
Baltimore | 15 | 21 | 0 | .417 |
Jacksonville | 15 | 21 | 0 | .417 |
St. Louis | 15 | 21 | 0 | .417 |
NY Jets | 16 | 20 | 0 | .444 |
Houston | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
Kansas City | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
Minnesota | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
New England | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
San Francisco | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
Washington | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
Buffalo | 19 | 17 | 0 | .528 |
Philadelphia | 19 | 17 | 0 | .528 |
Arizona | 20 | 16 | 0 | .556 |
Cleveland | 19 | 15 | 2 | .556 |
Pittsburgh | 20 | 15 | 1 | .569 |
Tampa Bay | 20 | 15 | 1 | .569 |
Atlanta | 21 | 15 | 0 | .583 |
Chicago | 21 | 15 | 0 | .583 |
Indianapolis | 21 | 15 | 0 | .583 |
Miami | 21 | 15 | 0 | .583 |
Oakland | 21 | 15 | 0 | .583 |
Dallas | 22 | 14 | 0 | .611 |
Cincinnati | 23 | 13 | 0 | .639 |
Denver | 23 | 12 | 1 | .653 |
San Diego | 25 | 11 | 0 | .694 |
Seattle | 25 | 11 | 0 | .694 |
—Ian Allan