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Strength of schedule

Chargers, Seahawks, could be derailed by difficult closing schedules

With the Dolphins having beaten the Jets, Week 13 is complete. Every team has played 12 games, and every team has exactly a quarter of its games left.

With that in mind, a look at Strength of Schedule.

For starters, I’ll toss out that the Broncos not only are an impressive 9-3, they’ve done it despite playing the league’s hardest schedule. They’ve played Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, Kansas City (twice), San Diego, New England and Indianapolis. Among the strong teams, New England is also up there.

The Jets and Raiders tie for the 2nd-hardest schedule. Their 12 games have been against opponents that have gone 74-58 in their other games. Note that this is after setting aside their own games (Oakland’s opponents are 85-59 when you factor in that they’re also 11-1 against the Raiders themselves).

The Steelers, Browns, Bucs and Cowboys have benefitted from playing the league’s easiest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Weeks 1-13
TeamWLTPct
Denver75570.568
NY Jets74580.561
Oakland74580.561
New England73581.557
St. Louis73590.553
NY Giants72600.545
Arizona71610.538
San Francisco71610.538
New Orleans69612.530
Carolina70620.530
Kansas City69630.523
Miami69630.523
Green Bay68631.519
Jacksonville68631.519
Seattle68631.519
Tennessee68631.519
Buffalo68640.515
Baltimore65643.504
Chicago66651.504
Detroit65661.496
Indianapolis63681.481
Minnesota63681.481
Philadelphia62691.473
San Diego61710.462
Cincinnati60720.455
Washington60720.455
Houston59721.451
Atlanta57732.439
Dallas58740.439
Tampa Bay55752.424
Cleveland54771.413
Pittsburgh53781.405

Looking instead at what’s coming, I see that the Titans and Saints project to play the easiest remaining schedules. Tennessee’s remaining opponents are against teams that right now are a combined 15-33. New Orleans’ opponents are just 15-32-1, which is far softer than the other leader in the NFC South (Atlanta, whose opponents are a combined 24-23-1).

Three teams that currently project to be in the playoffs (San Diego, Seattle, Cincinnati) are saddled with tough closing schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Weeks 14-17
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee15330.313
New Orleans15321.323
Carolina19290.396
Houston19290.396
NY Giants19290.396
Detroit21270.438
Jacksonville21270.438
Baltimore22260.458
Green Bay22260.458
Minnesota22260.458
Philadelphia22260.458
Indianapolis23250.479
Miami23250.479
NY Jets23250.479
St. Louis23250.479
New England24240.500
Atlanta24231.510
Denver24231.510
Dallas25230.521
Kansas City25230.521
Washington25230.521
Tampa Bay25221.531
Chicago26220.542
San Francisco26220.542
Arizona27210.563
Cleveland26202.563
Buffalo28200.583
Pittsburgh28182.604
Cincinnati30180.625
Oakland30180.625
Seattle30180.625
San Diego32160.667

Most fantasy leagues are done before Week 17, so here’s a look at the same data for just Weeks 14-16.

Titans have by far the easiest schedule on deck (Jaguars and the two New York teams). Among good teams, I see Lions, Saints and Ravens up there.

The Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, Bengals and Cowboys are all notable teams, and they have the hardest remaining schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Weeks 14-16
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee7290.194
NY Giants10260.278
Detroit12240.333
New Orleans13221.375
Carolina14220.389
Green Bay14220.389
Baltimore15210.417
Jacksonville15210.417
St. Louis15210.417
NY Jets16200.444
Houston17190.472
Kansas City17190.472
Minnesota17190.472
New England17190.472
San Francisco17190.472
Washington17190.472
Buffalo19170.528
Philadelphia19170.528
Arizona20160.556
Cleveland19152.556
Pittsburgh20151.569
Tampa Bay20151.569
Atlanta21150.583
Chicago21150.583
Indianapolis21150.583
Miami21150.583
Oakland21150.583
Dallas22140.611
Cincinnati23130.639
Denver23121.653
San Diego25110.694
Seattle25110.694

—Ian Allan

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