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Strength of schedule

Broncos, Patriots have overcome difficult schedules

We must give the Broncos and Patriots some credit. They are the only two 10-3 teams in the AFC, and they have done so despite playing the two hardest schedules in the league.

In the case of Denver, they’ve played everyone in the NFC West – Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis. Their 13 games have been against teams with a combined record of 88-68-0. That record actually climbs to 98-71-0 if you include the 13 games involving the Broncos themselves (which we do not in this chart).

On the NFC side, 10-3 Arizona also has played a tough schedule.

The Texans, Steelers and Browns, on the flip side, have benefited from playing the league’s easiest schedules. With harder schedules, it’s possible none of those teams would be in the playoff mix. As it stands now, Pittsburgh is in the running, while Cleveland and Houston are still at least in contention.

Here are the numbers for all 32. For this chart, I’m working off the assumption that Green Bay will defeat Atlanta tonight.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-14)
TeamWLTPct
Denver88680.564
New England87681.561
Oakland87690.558
Seattle85701.548
Arizona85710.545
NY Jets85710.545
Kansas City84720.538
St. Louis82740.526
Buffalo81750.519
Carolina81750.519
Miami81750.519
NY Giants81750.519
Chicago80751.516
New Orleans79743.516
Green Bay79761.510
Jacksonville79761.510
San Francisco79770.506
Philadelphia78771.503
Baltimore76773.497
Tennessee77781.497
San Diego77790.494
Indianapolis76791.490
Detroit73821.471
Atlanta72822.468
Cincinnati73830.468
Washington72840.462
Minnesota71841.458
Dallas69870.442
Tampa Bay68862.442
Cleveland67881.433
Pittsburgh66882.429
Houston66891.426

Looking at the final three weeks, two of the contenders in the watered-down NFC South, New Orleans and Carolina, have two of the easiest closing schedules in the league. (Whether either team is good enough to do anything with that schedule remains to be seen.)

The 49ers, Bengals and Chargers, meanwhile, have the hardest remaining schedules.

Again, this chart assumes Green Bay is able to take care of Atlanta tonight.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 15-17)
TeamWLTPct
New Orleans12270.308
Tennessee13260.333
Carolina14250.359
Baltimore16230.410
New England16230.410
Philadelphia16230.410
Jacksonville17220.436
Atlanta17211.449
Green Bay18210.462
Indianapolis18210.462
Kansas City18210.462
Miami18210.462
NY Giants18210.462
Denver18201.474
Houston19200.487
NY Jets19200.487
Tampa Bay19191.500
Chicago20190.513
Pittsburgh20181.526
Cleveland20172.538
Dallas21180.538
Detroit21180.538
Minnesota21180.538
Arizona22170.564
Buffalo22170.564
Washington22170.564
Seattle23160.590
St. Louis23160.590
Oakland24150.615
San Diego24150.615
Cincinnati25140.641
San Francisco27120.692

—Ian Allan

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