We must give the Broncos and Patriots some credit. They are the only two 10-3 teams in the AFC, and they have done so despite playing the two hardest schedules in the league.
In the case of Denver, they’ve played everyone in the NFC West – Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis. Their 13 games have been against teams with a combined record of 88-68-0. That record actually climbs to 98-71-0 if you include the 13 games involving the Broncos themselves (which we do not in this chart).
On the NFC side, 10-3 Arizona also has played a tough schedule.
The Texans, Steelers and Browns, on the flip side, have benefited from playing the league’s easiest schedules. With harder schedules, it’s possible none of those teams would be in the playoff mix. As it stands now, Pittsburgh is in the running, while Cleveland and Houston are still at least in contention.
Here are the numbers for all 32. For this chart, I’m working off the assumption that Green Bay will defeat Atlanta tonight.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-14) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Denver | 88 | 68 | 0 | .564 |
New England | 87 | 68 | 1 | .561 |
Oakland | 87 | 69 | 0 | .558 |
Seattle | 85 | 70 | 1 | .548 |
Arizona | 85 | 71 | 0 | .545 |
NY Jets | 85 | 71 | 0 | .545 |
Kansas City | 84 | 72 | 0 | .538 |
St. Louis | 82 | 74 | 0 | .526 |
Buffalo | 81 | 75 | 0 | .519 |
Carolina | 81 | 75 | 0 | .519 |
Miami | 81 | 75 | 0 | .519 |
NY Giants | 81 | 75 | 0 | .519 |
Chicago | 80 | 75 | 1 | .516 |
New Orleans | 79 | 74 | 3 | .516 |
Green Bay | 79 | 76 | 1 | .510 |
Jacksonville | 79 | 76 | 1 | .510 |
San Francisco | 79 | 77 | 0 | .506 |
Philadelphia | 78 | 77 | 1 | .503 |
Baltimore | 76 | 77 | 3 | .497 |
Tennessee | 77 | 78 | 1 | .497 |
San Diego | 77 | 79 | 0 | .494 |
Indianapolis | 76 | 79 | 1 | .490 |
Detroit | 73 | 82 | 1 | .471 |
Atlanta | 72 | 82 | 2 | .468 |
Cincinnati | 73 | 83 | 0 | .468 |
Washington | 72 | 84 | 0 | .462 |
Minnesota | 71 | 84 | 1 | .458 |
Dallas | 69 | 87 | 0 | .442 |
Tampa Bay | 68 | 86 | 2 | .442 |
Cleveland | 67 | 88 | 1 | .433 |
Pittsburgh | 66 | 88 | 2 | .429 |
Houston | 66 | 89 | 1 | .426 |
Looking at the final three weeks, two of the contenders in the watered-down NFC South, New Orleans and Carolina, have two of the easiest closing schedules in the league. (Whether either team is good enough to do anything with that schedule remains to be seen.)
The 49ers, Bengals and Chargers, meanwhile, have the hardest remaining schedules.
Again, this chart assumes Green Bay is able to take care of Atlanta tonight.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 15-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New Orleans | 12 | 27 | 0 | .308 |
Tennessee | 13 | 26 | 0 | .333 |
Carolina | 14 | 25 | 0 | .359 |
Baltimore | 16 | 23 | 0 | .410 |
New England | 16 | 23 | 0 | .410 |
Philadelphia | 16 | 23 | 0 | .410 |
Jacksonville | 17 | 22 | 0 | .436 |
Atlanta | 17 | 21 | 1 | .449 |
Green Bay | 18 | 21 | 0 | .462 |
Indianapolis | 18 | 21 | 0 | .462 |
Kansas City | 18 | 21 | 0 | .462 |
Miami | 18 | 21 | 0 | .462 |
NY Giants | 18 | 21 | 0 | .462 |
Denver | 18 | 20 | 1 | .474 |
Houston | 19 | 20 | 0 | .487 |
NY Jets | 19 | 20 | 0 | .487 |
Tampa Bay | 19 | 19 | 1 | .500 |
Chicago | 20 | 19 | 0 | .513 |
Pittsburgh | 20 | 18 | 1 | .526 |
Cleveland | 20 | 17 | 2 | .538 |
Dallas | 21 | 18 | 0 | .538 |
Detroit | 21 | 18 | 0 | .538 |
Minnesota | 21 | 18 | 0 | .538 |
Arizona | 22 | 17 | 0 | .564 |
Buffalo | 22 | 17 | 0 | .564 |
Washington | 22 | 17 | 0 | .564 |
Seattle | 23 | 16 | 0 | .590 |
St. Louis | 23 | 16 | 0 | .590 |
Oakland | 24 | 15 | 0 | .615 |
San Diego | 24 | 15 | 0 | .615 |
Cincinnati | 25 | 14 | 0 | .641 |
San Francisco | 27 | 12 | 0 | .692 |
—Ian Allan