Yesterday I posted grids, showing ballpark week-by-week estimates that could be expected for defenses and kickers.
Here’s the same for offenses – one for rushing and one for passing.
Both charts are based on the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.
For each chart, it involves averaging what an offense is doing against what each defense is allowing. If a team, for example, is averaging 160 rushing yards and 2 TDs per game, and it’s facing a defense that’s allowing 120 rushing yards and 1 TD, then for that game, we’d put it down for 140 yards and 1.5 TD runs.
There are 64 games left, and we followed this process for each of them. Then for each week, you rank a team somewhere from 1 to 32, based on how it grades out against the other 31 teams.
For rushing, Seattle grades out No. 1 overall. The numbers suggest it will be 1st in both Week 14 and Week 17, and 8th and 5th in Weeks 15-16.
We’re not saying this will happen. The numbers haven’t been worked. They don’t take into account, for example, that Kansas City and Miami have really struggled against the run lately, or that Tampa Bay and Cincinnati are now playing a lot better defense.
But they’re a starting point.
OFF-DEF RUSHING POWER RANKINGS FOR FINAL FOUR GAMES | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Avg |
1. | Seattle | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 18.7 |
2. | Baltimore | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 18.2 |
3. | Kansas City | 17 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 18.0 |
4. | New Orleans | 2 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 17.9 |
5. | NY Jets | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 17.9 |
6. | Cleveland | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 17.6 |
7. | Philadelphia | 20 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 17.4 |
8. | Dallas | 12 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 16.9 |
9. | Houston | 4 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 16.9 |
10. | Washington | 13 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 16.8 |
11. | Cincinnati | 10 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 16.8 |
12. | Indianapolis | 16 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 16.3 |
13. | Pittsburgh | 11 | 10 | 26 | 13 | 16.2 |
14. | Atlanta | 14 | 23 | 13 | 15 | 15.8 |
15. | Denver | 26 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 15.8 |
16. | Carolina | 18 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 15.7 |
17. | NY Giants | 6 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 15.7 |
18. | St. Louis | 22 | 25 | 3 | 25 | 15.2 |
19. | Miami | 24 | 17 | 10 | 24 | 15.1 |
20. | Green Bay | 8 | 24 | 15 | 30 | 15.0 |
21. | New England | 19 | 14 | 27 | 22 | 14.9 |
22. | San Francisco | 9 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 14.5 |
23. | Tennessee | 15 | 30 | 21 | 23 | 14.4 |
24. | Detroit | 23 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 14.4 |
25. | Minnesota | 25 | 28 | 18 | 18 | 14.3 |
26. | Jacksonville | 27 | 29 | 9 | 26 | 14.3 |
27. | Chicago | 21 | 13 | 31 | 21 | 14.1 |
28. | Buffalo | 30 | 15 | 16 | 29 | 13.9 |
29. | Tampa Bay | 32 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 13.5 |
30. | Arizona | 28 | 26 | 30 | 31 | 12.1 |
31. | San Diego | 29 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 12.0 |
32. | Oakland | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 10.9 |
Here are the same, only for passing. Not surprisingly, the Colts, Saints, Broncos and Packers lead the way. The Jets, Raiders and Vikings show up at the bottom.
OFF-DEF PASSING POWER RANKINGS FOR FINAL FOUR GAMES | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Avg |
1. | Indianapolis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 43.1 |
2. | New Orleans | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 41.4 |
3. | Denver | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 40.7 |
4. | Green Bay | 3 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39.2 |
5. | Dallas | 5 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 38.3 |
6. | Pittsburgh | 8 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 38.2 |
7. | Atlanta | 9 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 38.0 |
8. | New England | 7 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 37.8 |
9. | Philadelphia | 21 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 37.3 |
10. | NY Giants | 10 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 37.3 |
11. | San Diego | 6 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 36.7 |
12. | Chicago | 12 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 36.4 |
13. | Washington | 15 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 36.1 |
14. | Detroit | 13 | 20 | 7 | 19 | 36.0 |
15. | Tennessee | 20 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 35.4 |
16. | Miami | 11 | 18 | 21 | 11 | 35.3 |
17. | Houston | 17 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 35.1 |
18. | Baltimore | 28 | 13 | 12 | 26 | 34.9 |
19. | Carolina | 14 | 16 | 24 | 17 | 34.7 |
20. | Tampa Bay | 25 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 34.3 |
21. | Buffalo | 19 | 23 | 19 | 21 | 34.1 |
22. | Jacksonville | 23 | 21 | 25 | 22 | 33.8 |
23. | Cleveland | 18 | 27 | 18 | 14 | 33.8 |
24. | Arizona | 27 | 22 | 29 | 27 | 32.9 |
25. | Cincinnati | 24 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 32.8 |
26. | St. Louis | 16 | 24 | 22 | 31 | 32.8 |
27. | San Francisco | 26 | 31 | 28 | 24 | 32.1 |
28. | Seattle | 22 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 31.9 |
29. | Kansas City | 30 | 25 | 26 | 30 | 31.3 |
30. | Minnesota | 29 | 32 | 32 | 23 | 31.1 |
31. | Oakland | 31 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 30.9 |
32. | NY Jets | 32 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 28.7 |
—Ian Allan