Earlier in the day, I posted the grid with the ballpark estimates of how defenses match up in the final four weeks of the season (given the offenses they’re facing).
Here’s the same for kickers.
The process is as follows: Look at home many kicking points each team has scored. Compare that with what each defense is allowing. Then, using the remaining schedule, calculate a ballpark estimate of how each team should fare.
The Patriots, for example, are scoring 10 kicking points per game. Kansas City is allowing 8 kicking points per game. So if New England were playing Kansas City, they would be credited with 9 points for that game.
This isn’t overly scientific. The offense-defense numbers, for example, suggest that Matt Prater, Connor Barth, Shayne Graham and Greg Zuerlein will all be below-average scorers this week, yet we’ve got all four of those guys as above-average options on the newsletter we released earlier today. The numbers below haven’t been worked to account for injuries, home-field advantage, which team will probably win, who’s been hot and whatnot.
But they’re a starting point – a ballpark estimate. They’re a weighting of how players have been formed, averaged against what’s happened to the defenses coming up on the schedule.
According to these numbers, surprise-type kickers who might be top-10 guys going forward include Dan Carpenter, Matt Bryant, Shaun Suisham and Randy Bullock.
OFF-DEF KICKING POWER RANKINGS FOR FINAL FOUR GAMES | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Avg |
1. | Philadelphia | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8.6 |
2. | Indianapolis | 2 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 8.5 |
3. | New England | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8.4 |
4. | Baltimore | 8 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 8.2 |
5. | Buffalo | 9 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 8.1 |
6. | Atlanta | 20 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 7.9 |
7. | Seattle | 12 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 7.9 |
8. | Pittsburgh | 11 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 7.9 |
9. | Green Bay | 4 | 12 | 5 | 19 | 7.8 |
10. | Houston | 3 | 21 | 19 | 3 | 7.8 |
11. | New Orleans | 18 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 7.8 |
12. | Miami | 15 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 7.8 |
13. | Dallas | 1 | 19 | 24 | 17 | 7.4 |
14. | Carolina | 10 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 7.4 |
15. | San Diego | 14 | 18 | 22 | 12 | 7.4 |
16. | Cincinnati | 13 | 17 | 23 | 14 | 7.4 |
17. | Denver | 23 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 7.2 |
18. | Minnesota | 16 | 28 | 25 | 6 | 7.2 |
19. | San Francisco | 5 | 25 | 26 | 20 | 7.2 |
20. | Kansas City | 24 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 7.1 |
21. | Cleveland | 27 | 15 | 14 | 21 | 7.1 |
22. | St. Louis | 22 | 20 | 11 | 25 | 7.0 |
23. | Detroit | 21 | 31 | 7 | 27 | 6.9 |
24. | NY Jets | 28 | 10 | 21 | 23 | 6.9 |
25. | Washington | 26 | 13 | 27 | 26 | 6.8 |
26. | Arizona | 17 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 6.8 |
27. | Tennessee | 25 | 27 | 17 | 30 | 6.6 |
28. | Tampa Bay | 29 | 23 | 30 | 18 | 6.5 |
29. | NY Giants | 19 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 6.4 |
30. | Oakland | 30 | 29 | 31 | 29 | 5.8 |
31. | Jacksonville | 31 | 32 | 20 | 31 | 5.8 |
32. | Chicago | 32 | 26 | 32 | 32 | 5.6 |
—Ian Allan