The Cowboys don’t have much of a pass rush, and I think that will make it tough for them to pull an upset at Lambeau on Sunday. How can you stop Aaron Rodgers if you can’t get some pressure on him?
Dallas went 12-4 in the regular season, but it did so with an unusually low number of sacks – just 28. In the past 10 years, 46 teams won at least 12 games, but only two of those teams finished with fewer sacks.
No team has really stopped the Packers at Lambeau. The Patriots held them to 26 points, when Green Bay piled up tons of yards but settled for 4 field goals with red zone breakdowns. The Packers have scored at least 30 points in all seven of their other home games.
For Dallas, the best hope is to perhaps control the ball with DeMarco Murray running. Maybe they get lucky and Aaron Rodgers re-injuries his calf. Or the weather is so terrible that the passing games are nullified. Current forecast calls for a high of 15 degrees, which could make it similar to the Packers-Giants NFC Championship game from a few years back, when it was so cold that some of the helmet decals fell off.
But odds are the Packers will pile up plenty of yards and points and win this game pretty decisively.
I don’t see a juicy upset candidate. Of the four road teams, I believe the Ravens are most likely to maybe pull an upset. I’ll put the Cowboys in the No. 2 spot, but only because I have little confidence in the Colts or Panthers making serious runs in their games.
Here are the sack totals for the 12-win teams of the last 10 years. This year’s teams are in bold. Super Bowl participants with a dot (•), and Super Bowl winners with two dots (••).
TEAMS WITH 12 WINS (last 10 years) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Record | Sacks |
2006 | San Diego | 14-2 | 61 |
2006 | Baltimore | 13-3 | 60 |
2013 | Carolina | 12-4 | 60 |
2012 | Denver | 13-3 | 52 |
2008 | ••Pittsburgh | 12-4 | 51 |
2005 | •Seattle | 13-3 | 50 |
2009 | Minnesota | 12-4 | 48 |
2010 | •Pittsburgh | 12-4 | 48 |
2011 | Baltimore | 12-4 | 48 |
2013 | New England | 12-4 | 48 |
2005 | Jacksonville | 12-4 | 47 |
2007 | •New England | 16-0 | 47 |
2005 | Indianapolis | 14-2 | 46 |
2007 | Dallas | 13-3 | 46 |
2006 | New England | 12-4 | 44 |
2008 | Tennessee | 13-3 | 44 |
2012 | Houston | 12-4 | 44 |
2013 | ••Seattle | 13-3 | 44 |
2008 | NY Giants | 12-4 | 42 |
2011 | San Francisco | 13-3 | 42 |
2013 | •Denver | 13-3 | 41 |
2014 | Denver | 12-4 | 41 |
2014 | Green Bay | 12-4 | 41 |
2006 | •Chicago | 13-3 | 40 |
2011 | •New England | 13-3 | 40 |
2014 | New England | 12-4 | 40 |
2013 | San Francisco | 12-4 | 38 |
2008 | Carolina | 12-4 | 37 |
2012 | New England | 12-4 | 37 |
2014 | Seattle | 12-4 | 37 |
2007 | Green Bay | 13-3 | 36 |
2010 | New England | 14-2 | 36 |
2009 | ••New Orleans | 13-3 | 35 |
2009 | San Diego | 13-3 | 35 |
2011 | Pittsburgh | 12-4 | 35 |
2009 | •Indianapolis | 14-2 | 34 |
2011 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 33 |
2010 | Atlanta | 13-3 | 31 |
2008 | Indianapolis | 12-4 | 30 |
2011 | Green Bay | 15-1 | 29 |
2012 | Atlanta | 13-3 | 29 |
2005 | Denver | 13-3 | 28 |
2007 | Indianapolis | 13-3 | 28 |
2014 | Dallas | 12-4 | 28 |
2010 | Baltimore | 12-4 | 27 |
2006 | ••Indianapolis | 12-4 | 25 |
—Ian Allan