One of the reasons I don’t think Dallas can win at Lambeau is their defense. With a limited pass rush, I don’t think they can stop Green Bay from scoring touchdowns.
In the red zone, Dallas had one of the worst defenses in the league in the regular season, with opponents scoring touchdowns on 30 of 49 possessions.
Looking at the overall numbers, however, I see that six of the other eight teams playing this weekend also were below average in that part of the field.
The Colts were the worst of all, with opponents scoring on 33 of 50 possessions. Carolina was 2nd-worst, letting opponents score touchdowns on 63 percent of their red zone possessions.
Even the Seahawks allowed opponents to score on almost 60 percent of possessions (although in their case, at least they allowed opponents to even get in the red zone only 37 times – far fewer than any other team left in the postseason.
The Ravens and Patriots both have good red zone defenses, which is why I think the over-under of 48 points in that game looks high.
Here are the red zone efficiency numbers for each defense. I’ve got the remaining playoff teams in bold.
| DEFENSES INSIDE THE 20 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Poss | TD | Pct |
| Kansas City | 54 | 21 | 38.9% |
| Baltimore | 54 | 23 | 42.6% |
| Arizona | 41 | 18 | 43.9% |
| St. Louis | 39 | 18 | 46.2% |
| Cleveland | 54 | 25 | 46.3% |
| New England | 46 | 22 | 47.8% |
| Houston | 46 | 22 | 47.8% |
| Jacksonville | 56 | 27 | 48.2% |
| New York Giants | 51 | 25 | 49.0% |
| Cincinnati | 55 | 27 | 49.1% |
| Buffalo | 44 | 22 | 50.0% |
| San Diego | 52 | 27 | 51.9% |
| Washington | 48 | 25 | 52.1% |
| Chicago | 71 | 37 | 52.1% |
| Oakland | 57 | 30 | 52.6% |
| Miami | 55 | 29 | 52.7% |
| Detroit | 49 | 26 | 53.1% |
| Pittsburgh | 50 | 27 | 54.0% |
| Minnesota | 48 | 26 | 54.2% |
| Green Bay | 48 | 27 | 56.3% |
| Atlanta | 58 | 33 | 56.9% |
| Denver | 52 | 30 | 57.7% |
| Philadelphia | 43 | 25 | 58.1% |
| Tennessee | 63 | 37 | 58.7% |
| New York Jets | 49 | 29 | 59.2% |
| Seattle | 37 | 22 | 59.5% |
| Dallas | 49 | 30 | 61.2% |
| San Francisco | 44 | 27 | 61.4% |
| Tampa Bay | 52 | 32 | 61.5% |
| New Orleans | 51 | 32 | 62.7% |
| Carolina | 46 | 29 | 63.0% |
| Indianapolis | 50 | 33 | 66.0% |
—Ian Allan