Turnovers are often critical in determining playoff games, which in terms of fumbles seems, at first glance, to favor the road teams. Of the eight remaining teams, the top 4 in terms of recovering fumbles are the visitors: Indianapolis, Dallas, Carolina and Baltimore, in that order. Taken on its own, those teams would seem to have an edge in recovering fumbles this week.
| 2014 FUMBLES RECOVERED | ||
|---|---|---|
| DEFENSE | FF | FR |
| Philadelphia | 27 | 16 |
| Jacksonville | 22 | 14 |
| Indianapolis | 29 | 14 |
| Houston | 24 | 14 |
| Dallas | 20 | 13 |
| St. Louis | 25 | 12 |
| Carolina | 28 | 12 |
| Washington | 26 | 12 |
| Atlanta | 19 | 12 |
| Buffalo | 20 | 11 |
| Baltimore | 22 | 11 |
| Miami | 19 | 11 |
| Seattle | 29 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 11 |
| San Diego | 22 | 11 |
| Chicago | 25 | 10 |
| Pittsburgh | 20 | 10 |
| NY Giants | 24 | 9 |
| Green Bay | 20 | 9 |
| New England | 19 | 9 |
| Kansas City | 17 | 8 |
| Cleveland | 22 | 8 |
| NY Jets | 17 | 7 |
| Detroit | 19 | 7 |
| Denver | 21 | 7 |
| Arizona | 13 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 20 | 6 |
| San Francisco | 18 | 6 |
| Cincinnati | 15 | 6 |
| New Orleans | 15 | 5 |
| Oakland | 19 | 5 |
| Tennessee | 7 | 4 |
Then again, of the eight remaining playoff teams, which four have lost the fewest fumbles this season? You guessed it: the four home teams.
| 2014 FUMBLES LOST | ||
|---|---|---|
| Offense | Fum | Lost |
| Philadelphia | 25 | 15 |
| Indianapolis | 31 | 15 |
| Dallas | 21 | 14 |
| NY Giants | 21 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay | 29 | 13 |
| Washington | 31 | 13 |
| New Orleans | 22 | 13 |
| Oakland | 28 | 13 |
| San Francisco | 18 | 12 |
| St. Louis | 27 | 11 |
| Miami | 27 | 11 |
| Carolina | 25 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh | 16 | 11 |
| Kansas City | 22 | 11 |
| Buffalo | 22 | 10 |
| Chicago | 19 | 10 |
| Tennessee | 23 | 10 |
| Houston | 19 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | 20 | 9 |
| NY Jets | 25 | 9 |
| Detroit | 21 | 8 |
| Atlanta | 16 | 8 |
| Baltimore | 16 | 8 |
| Jacksonville | 15 | 8 |
| Cleveland | 16 | 7 |
| Green Bay | 19 | 7 |
| Seattle | 23 | 7 |
| Arizona | 16 | 5 |
| Denver | 16 | 5 |
| San Diego | 15 | 5 |
| New England | 13 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 11 | 2 |
Merging the two, here are your fumble recovery likelihoods from the eight defenses. Based on that, the Green Bay, Seattle and Denver defenses look like your best bets.
| TOTAL FUMBLES, DIVISIONAL MATCHUPS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENSE | FR | OFFENSE | FL | Total | |
| Green Bay | 9 | Dallas | 14 | 23 | |
| Seattle | 11 | Carolina | 11 | 22 | |
| Denver | 7 | Indianapolis | 15 | 22 | |
| Dallas | 13 | Green Bay | 7 | 20 | |
| Indianapolis | 14 | Denver | 5 | 19 | |
| Carolina | 12 | Seattle | 7 | 19 | |
| New England | 9 | Baltimore | 8 | 17 | |
| Baltimore | 11 | New England | 4 | 15 | |
--Andy Richardson