I believe the Patriots will come out on top on Sunday. I like the versatility of their offense, and I think they’ll come up with ways to slow down the Seahawks.

You start with Bill Belichick. He’s one of the great defensive minds in the history of the game, and he’s shown that over and over during his career. He’s gone 12-7 against Peyton Manning over the last 15 years. Belichick was the guy, recall, who came up with a plan to slow down the Greatest Show on Turf 13 years ago. And if you go back to the 1990 season, he was part of the group that put together one of the great postseason defensive efforts in league history. The Giants started by beating the Bears 31-3 that season, then took down the league’s two elite offenses in back-to-back games – 15-13 at San Francisco, and 20-19 against the Bills.

Here, Belichick encounters an offense that’s a lot simpler than many of the really good ones he’s faced over the years. The Seahawks want to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch, and they’ll supplement that with Russell Wilson scrambling around and trying to create plays (both rushing and passing).

I think the Patriots will have some success forcing Seattle to play out of a character. Their secondary is one of the very best in the league (I like all four guys), and I think they’ll be able to use a lot of man coverage. The Seahawks’ pass catchers are average at best, so I expect New England will usually have the resources to bring extra players to the line of scrimmage to slow down Lynch. That’s how it played out when these teams met last time; Lynch carried 15 times for only 41 yards.

This New England defense is very good against the run. Over its last 10 games, it’s been better than even Seattle’s, allowing 85 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, with just 3 rushing TDs.

If Lynch is contained, then everything starts falling on Wilson, and I think the Patriots will be up to that challenge. His top three receivers at this point are Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson, and I think New England can handle those guys. The Seahawks traded Percy Harvin, Golden Tate signed with Detroit, and rookie Paul Richardson (who was starting to come on) is out for the year. The No. 3 receiver right now is Ricardo Lockette, who wouldn’t even make the 53-man roster on most teams. The same can be said for their second and third tight ends, Cooper Helfet and Tony Moeaki.

Wilson will make some plays running the ball, but my expectation is that Belichick will come up with some ways to slow him down. I remember the 1998 season, when Doug Flutie was having a remarkable season with the Bills. Belichick (as the defensive coordinator of the Jets) was able to do some things to keep Flutie in the pocket, and he was miserable in those games, completing 38 percent, with 1 TD and 3 interceptions in a pair of losses. Flutie completed 62 percent against the rest of the league, with 15 TDs and 7 interceptions in his other eight starts.

I will concede that Wilson is taller, faster and better than Flutie, but he’s still a relatively young and inexperienced passer. New England will throw some coverages and looks at him, I’m sure, that he hasn’t seen before, and I think his pass catchers will have problems getting open.

The Packers gave Wilson fits for most of the NFC Championship game, and Seattle’s offense wasn’t particularly impressive in its other playoff game either (I thought Carolina was better than the Seahawks in most of that game).

Seattle also has a really good defense, of course, the first one in over 40 years to allow the fewest points and yards in the league three years in a row. I’m not suggesting the Patriots will simply march the ball up and down the field on these guys. This is one of those games where a couple of big plays or turnovers probably will decide it.

But the Patriots are awfully flexible; they can attack in so many different ways. They’ll test the middle some with LeGarrette Blount; I don’t think the Seahawks are special against the run, so maybe Blount can have some success between the tackles. The Patriots no doubt will spread the field at times, with Edelman, LaFell, Gronkowski, Amendola and Vereen, and they’re not locked into getting the ball to any one guy – all they need is for one of their guys to win his matchup, and Brady usually finds him. The Patriots use more quick passing than any team, and that makes it tough on opposing pass rushes. They’ll also no doubt work in some no-huddle concepts, when they like how their offense matches up against Seattle’s 11 on defense.

When these teams met in Seattle in 2012, New England moved the ball fairly well. They spread the field and Brady went 36 of 58 for 395 yards and 2 TDs (but 2 interceptions, and he completed only 62 percent). But they settled for three field goals and Seattle pulled it out 24-23 when Wilson threw a couple of touchdowns late. Both teams are better now. New England has better pass catchers, while Wilson is operating on another level (that was just the sixth start of his career).

DeflateGate
This might give the Patriots an edge. It’s something the coaches probably will try to use as a motivational tool. “They don’t think we’re good. They think we’re only here because we used under-inflated footballs.” New England got mileage out of Spygate back in 2007.

Tom Brady
Seahawks have the legendary pass defense. In their last 10 games, they’ve allowed an average of only 174 passing yards, with just 6 TDs. But with the way today’s game is set up, it’s tough to shut down quarterbacks like Brady. They’ll spread the field, and he’ll start dinking and dunking. When the Seahawks went up 22-19 against Green Bay with a minute left, they couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers from driving the ball down the field for the tying field goal.

Russell Wilson
Key will be whether Wilson has any success as a runner, and this is a question that probably won’t be answered until the second half. Maybe by design, the Seahawks haven’t used Wilson as much as a runner until the game is on the line. He’s run the ball over twice as often in the second halves of games. When they beat Green Bay and Denver in overtime, it was with Wilson finally becoming a factor as a runner late in those games.

New England’s running backs
Seattle ranked 3rd in run defense in the regular season, but I don’t think they’re quite that good. I think they’re more of just one of the top half-dozen run defenses. As the Patriots do various things with formations, tempo and spread offenses, that might be able to create some favorable situations. LeGarrette Blount might have success running at times. Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Stewart (big backs) combined for 143 yards on 34 carries in Seattle’s last two games. They’ve also got Shane Vereen. He doesn’t carry the ball too much (double-digit rushing yards in only one of his last seven games) but he’s a remarkably dangerous pass catcher. They’ll use him on wheel routes and split him outside as a wide receiver. When they get the right linebacker on him in coverage, the Patriots will throw deep to Vereen, who starts looking more like a wide receiver than a running back. For the year, Vereen averages 29 receiving yards. Blount isn’t a factor in the passing game, and probably not more than a couple of touches for Brandon Bolden or Jonas Gray.

Marshawn Lynch
Lynch was remarkably good in the regular season, averaging 105 yards per game (82 run, 23 rec), with 17 TDs. But I think the Patriots will key on him and contain him. Denver was able to do this in the last Super Bowl, holding Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries (with a 1-yard touchdown). New England seems to have one of the top half dozen run defenses, and it held Lynch to 41 yards on 15 carries when these teams played three years ago.

New England’s wide receivers
The Seahawks have the great cornerbacks, but with the way the Patriots spread the field and get the ball out quick, their wide receivers should still catch plenty of passes. Julian Edelman has averaged 8 catches in his last eight games; he’s been under 7 catches in only one of those games. Brandon LaFell doesn’t catch as many passes but is more of a downfield option. LaFell wasn’t part of the offense at the start of the year, but he’s now caught 83 passes for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs in his last 16 games. Neither Edelman nor LaFell lines up exclusively on one side of the field, so no worries about Richard Sherman eliminating one of these guys from the game. Danny Amendola has been a big disappointment for most of his two years in New England, but he’s come on recently. He’s definitely their No. 3. Amendola has caught 18 passes and 3 TDs in his last four games.

Seattle’s wide receivers
I think they’ll have problems winning against New England’s cornerbacks – I think they’ll have problems getting open. Doug Baldwin is the clear No. 1 option. Since the Seahawks traded away Percy Harvin, Baldwin caught 59 passes in 13 games – 4.5 per game. But only 4 TDs. If the Patriots stick Darrelle Revis on one guy (I’m not sure they will) it will be on Baldwin. Jermaine Kearse has a bigger body and is more of a downfield threat. Kearse has scored in only one of his last 20 regular-season game, but remarkably has caught touchdowns in four straight postseason games.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronk is playing remarkably well, with 79 catches for 1,113 yards and 11 TDs in his last 14 games. Seattle allowed 11 touchdown passes to tight ends in the regular season. Antonio Gates memorably ripped them up for 96 yards and 3 TDs back in Week 2. But usually the Seahawks play really well against tight ends. They’ve allowed only one touchdown by a tight end in their last 10 games. Kam Chancellor is unusually big for a safety (6-3, 232), and Seattle’s linebackers have a lot of speed, giving them a better chance of holding up with Gronk. Jimmy Graham caught 4 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in two games against Seattle in 2013. Julius Thomas has caught 7 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown in his last two games against Seattle. When New England lost at Seattle back in 2012, Gronkowski caught 6 passes for 61 yards.

Luke Willson
Not a great tight end, but he’s come on recently, with 11 catches for 250 yards and 3 TDs in his last four games. That includes that 80-yard touchdown at Arizona, where he surprisingly was able to run away from defensive backs. He made a couple of big catches against Carolina, and he was able to fall forward for a key first down against the Packers. He doesn’t have great hands (that is, probably below average in terms of pulling down contested catches) but there’s some speed there.

Kickers
I don’t think there’s a big difference between Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka. It comes down to which team you feel will win. On that front, I think New England is a slight favorite. Seattle’s defense can be very good in the red zone, which could help make Gostkowski this game’s highest-scoring player. Mason Crosby kicked 5 field goals against Seattle last week, and Gostkowski knocked in 3 the last time these teams met.

Defenses
Not a huge difference between the two units, I think. It also probably will come down which team wins. Both defenses have intercepted 12 passes in their last 10 games, but both are working against quarterbacks who tend to be awfully careful not to put throws in the wrong spots. Seattle has a slightly better pass rush, but Tom Brady is way better at avoiding sacks. Russell Wilson has been sacked 33 times in his last 10 games – 19 more than Brady. New England is far better on kick returns (with Julian Edelman on punts and Danny Amendola on kickoffs both looking above average). With Seattle, Bryan Walters is handling punts for his hands (no career fumbles) and decision-making, while Doug Baldwin was a disaster on kickoff returns against the Packers (he returned 3 out of the end zone, and they resulted in a lost fumble and returns to the 13 and 14). With Seattle, there’s that chance that we’re underestimating a historically great defense and it dishes out a beat-down like it did last February against Peyton Manning.

Last 10 games
New England’s offense, in its last 10 games, has scored 36 touchdowns (22 pass, 14 run). That’s going against a Seattle defense that in the same span has allowed only 11 touchdowns (6 pass, 5 run). Big difference there – an offense that’s averaging almost 4 TDs against a defense that’s giving up only about one. So about 2-3 TDs in our expectation, and you start moving towards 3 if you feel New England will win it. On the other side of the ball, Seattle has scored 27 TDs (14 pass, 13 run) in its last 10 games, and it’s going against a defense that in the same span has allowed 17 (14 pass, 3 run). So about 2-3 TDs is our expectation for Seattle.

Anyway, take all of these ideas and plug them into a spreadsheet, and the player projections work out something like this (using the scoring system of 6 points for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 for every 20 passing yards, 1 for sacks and 2 for takeaways).

—Ian Allan