Part of the fun of the Super Bowl are the prop bets. There’s the non-football stuff – color of the Gatorade, length of the national anthem and whatnot – but also props on a lot of individual player stats.
Numerous sites have hundreds of prop bets listed. Here are the offerings from Bovada.lv.
I looked at the game earlier in the week, trying to gauge how I thought the players would do. Combining those concepts with the chart offered by Bovada, these are the prop bets I like the most.
Blount under a half reception
They don’t use him much in the passing game. He’s played eight games for them this year, and he’s caught passes in only two of those games. Blount played 18 games for New England last year and caught only 2 passes.
Brady over 36.5 pass attempts
Seattle has a historically great pass defense, but this is a different kind of passing offense. Lots of spread formations, and the ball coming out quick – like an extended handoff. The Patriots ran for over 200 yards three times year; that’s not going to happen, so toss those games out. Brady has attempted 37-plus passes in eight of his other 14 games.
Brady long completion under 37.5 yards
New England isn’t a great downfield passing team – just 8 completions of 40 yards in the regular season. They were a bottom-10 team in terms of making big completions downfield. Seattle, meanwhile, has a top-10 defense in terms of not giving up those plays – just 6 in the regular season.
Wilson long completion under 37.5 yards
Similar to the same bet with Brady. Seattle isn’t a great deep passing team, and New England doesn’t tend to allow many of those plays.
Vereen under 3.5 rushing attempts
Vereen will play a lot because of the mismatches he creates in the passing game, but they don’t use him much on draws. They’re preference is to line him up outside and use him as a wide receiver. He’s been under in five of his last seven games.
Vereen long reception over 12.5 yards
He’s essentially a wide receiver, so a 13-yard reception isn’t a big ask. He’s had a reception of 13-plus yards in 10 of their 18 games. In all but three games, he’s had a catch of at least 12 yards.
Edelman over 6.5 receptions
He catches a lot of those short, quick-hitting balls that are essentially impossible to stop. He’s had at least 7 receptions in all but one of his last eight games. If the Patriots win this game and have their offense rolling, he’ll get his 7 catches. If they fall way behind, they’ll be passing plenty in the second half and he’ll still get his 7 grabs.
Gronkowski over 5.5 receptions
The logic is the same as with Edelman. Gronkowski has hit this number in 8 of his last 13 games.
Amendola over 20.5 receiving yards
He’s been coming on recently. He’s definitely their No. 3 receiver. He’s had 63, 24, 81 and 8 receiving yards in their last four games. The 8-yard game against Indianapolis, when they were simply running the Colts into the ground.
Lynch under 92.5 rushing yards
Lynch is a great running back, but I think the Patriots will target him. They’re going to make other people beat them. And I think they’ve got the personnel and scheme designs to hold Lynch in check. That’s a big number anyway. Lynch has been over that total in only a third of their games. The Broncos focused on Lynch in the last Super Bowl and held him to only 40 yards.
Lynch under 20.5 attempts
Similar to the yards prop. If the Seahawks aren’t having success with Lynch, they won’t just keep slamming him into the line for 2- and 3-yard gains. He’s beaten this number in only 7 of 18 games.
Lynch long run under 20.5 yards
I think New England will hold up well against Lynch, and that’s a disciplined, sound run defense. In the regular season, New England allowed only 2 runs of 20-plus yards – fewest in the league.
Lynch over 2.5 receptions
If Lynch isn’t ripping it up as a runner, it makes sense for him to play a bigger role in the passing game.
Wilson over 27.5 passes
I think the Patriots will keep on Lynch, have some success against him, and force the Seahawks to do some other things. Logical progression, therefore, is that Wilson will have to pass more. He’s attempted 28-plus passes in 10 of their 18 games anyway.
Luke Willson over 2.5 receptions
The Seahawks are a little light at wide receiver. Golden Tate signed with Detroit, they traded Percy Harvin, and Paul Richardson is out for the year. New England (I think) will have some success targeting Lynch, so Seattle should have to pass a little more than usual. If and when it plays out that way, I don’t think they’ll want to force a ton of balls to Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse (those guys are going against a pair of really good cornerbacks). So I think we’ll see their No. 3 option getting utilized more than usual. That’s their tight end, Luke Willson, who’s been coming on anyway. Willson has caught 11 passes in his last four games.
LaFell +14.5 will have more yards than Edelman
LaFell wasn’t a starter at the beginning of the season. He’d be a winner in this bet in eight of the last 13 games.
Kearse +12.5 will have more yards than Baldwin
Kearse seems to have some big-game ability. He’s scored in four straight playoff games. And he’s in a better matchup in this situation. The Patriots probably will be Darrelle Revis on Baldwin, while Brandon Browner is a bigger, slower cornerback who’ll give up some big plays. Going to Kearse, I think, could be a key theme in the offense. Kearse injured a hamstring in Week 16 in this stadium (keeping him out of the regular-season finale). Set those two games aside, and Kearse would be a winner in this bet in six of the last eight games.
Gostkowski over 8 points
For this one, you must pick over or under 8 points. If he scores exactly 8, it’s a wash and you get your money back. With that in mind, I’ll take a flyer on New England’s kicker. That offense hasn’t been averse to settling for field goals, while the Seahawks have been very good in the red zone defensively. Mason Crosby kicked 5 field goals against them last week. If Gostkowski chips in two field goals, you should be at least on your way to a wash. He scored 11 points (with 3 field goals) in the last meeting between these teams.