Winding the clock back a year, how was it that Andrew Hawkins signed a contract almost as large as Julian Edelman? This is not a hindsight is 20-20 deal. Edelman had established himself as a Welker-type receiver for the Patriots, catching 105 passes in the 2013 season.
Yet, Edelman received little if any interest from other teams before re-signing with New England for $17 million over four years, with $8 million guaranteed.
Andrew Hawkins, meanwhile, hardly played in 2013 because of injuries, yet the Browns signed him to a four-year offer for $13.6 million, with $4 million guaranteed. The Bengals mulled that over for a week before deciding to let him leave (Hawkins was a restricted free agent).
Hard to believe at the time, and it makes even less sense now, with Edelman having just caught 9 passes in the Super Bowl, including a couple of key grabs in the fourth quarter. He no doubt was willing to give New England a hometown discount, but other teams should have shown more interest, forcing the Patriots to pay more to keep him.
With that in mind, here are the tentative 2015 free agent receivers. A few more no doubt will trickle in as guys are released in salary cap moves in the coming weeks (Dwayne Bowe and Percy Harvin, for example, could be free agents before long).
1. Demaryius Thomas, Den. (27 years old)
He won’t be leaving Denver. One of the league’s top 10 receivers.
2. Dez Bryant, Dall. (26)
The most talented receiver on the market, but teams have to factor in the potential his career will be derailed by some kind of off-field incident. Cowboys cleverly have a team of body guards following him around 24 hours a day, keeping him out of trouble (which is what the Browns should have done with Josh Gordon). Jerry Jones is trying to figure out a way to keep both Bryant and DeMarco Murray.
3. Randall Cobb, G.B. (24)
Likely will re-sign with Packers, but different than Thomas-Bryant in that he’s not a clearly defined No. 1, franchise-type receiver. In that offense, he’s already sharing the spotlight with Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams could be pretty similar to those guys soon. Could be a money-driven decision.
4. Jeremy Maclin, Phil. (26)
Put together a whale of a contract year last season, playing way better than I ever thought he could. Coming off an ACL surgery, he bet on himself, and he’s going to win big.
5. Torrey Smith, Balt. (26)
Burner speed, but more of a field-stretching No. 2 receiver than a go-to guy.
6. Michael Crabtree, S.F. (27)
Decent starting receiver, but has never developed into the franchise option the 49ers thought they were getting when they made him a top-10 pick. Not fast enough, and not big enough or physical enough to consistently win against the tight coverage he sees.
7. Eddie Royal, S.D. (28)
When the Seahawks unsuccessfully attempted that stacked receiver rub route at the goal line at the end of the Super Bowl, I thought of Royal. He’s probably scored more short touchdowns on those kind of routes than anybody over the last two years. He can return punts, and he’s caught 109 passes and 15 TDs over the last two years.
8. Kenny Britt, St.L. (26)
Had a couple of big games last year for the Rams, where it looked like he might be past the injuries that have plagued him in recent years. They’ll probably re-sign him.
9. Cecil Shorts III, Jac. (27)
Comes off a couple of dud years, but he was arguably one of the league’s top 10 receivers in the second half of the 2012 season. Could benefit from a change of scenery. Has had problems with injuries, including multiple hamstring injuries last year and concussions in the past. Wasn’t any better in Jacksonville last year then their three rookie receivers.
10. Nate Washington, Tenn. (31)
The Titans have Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, so they won’t break the bank to re-sign Washington. Has shown some ability to get downfield, averaging at least 15.8 yards per catch three years in a row. Probably will be a No. 3 somewhere.
11. Dwayne Harris, Dall. (27)
A third or fourth receiver who also returns punts and kickoffs. Doesn’t do anything well enough that he’s likely to leave Dallas.
12. Jason Avant, K.C. (31)
Carolina gave up on him last year. Likely will re-sign with Kansas City, competing for their No. 3 job. He filled that role for Andy Reid in the past.
13. Denarius Moore, Oak. (26)
He struggled last year, but he’s been a decent receiver in the past. He led Oakland in touchdown catches in the 2011-13 seasons. Some team might be able to push the right buttons and turn him around. Might be a third receiver somewhere.
14. Hakeem Nicks, Ind. (27)
He’s only 27, but he moves like he’s 8-10 years older. He can’t seem to get open anymore, and he’s not winning the contested balls like he did in the past. He was a huge disappointment for the Colts, who won’t make any effort to re-sign him even at the league minimum.
15. Miles Austin, Clev. (30)
Declining veteran who ended last year on injured reserve with a kidney injury. Maybe will be a third receiver somewhere. Wasn’t productive as a starter with the Browns. Doesn’t have enough speed to be a starter anymore for any team.
16. Brandon Tate, Cin. (27)
Reserve receiver (but not a No. 3) who also returns punts and kickoffs. Was one of the league’s top half dozen kickoff returners last year.
17. Reggie Wayne, Ind. (36)
He just can’t get open anymore. At 36 (and having undergone an ACL surgery in 2013) the burst is gone. The Colts are probably quietly talking to him, trying to talk him into retiring in a classy way. Maybe he signs with somebody and competes in training camp, but he’s not going to be a top-3 receiver on any team.
18. Wes Welker, Den. (33)
Susceptible to concussions, and simply not the player he’s been in the past. I don’t think anyone will even sign him.
—Ian Allan