Factoid

February 06, 2015

Rookie Quarterbacks

Three rookie quarterbacks played significant snaps last season. First-rounders Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater and second-rounder Derek Carr handled most of the work for their teams in 2014. The question is which of these players will go on to have solid careers, and which will leave their teams searching for new quarterbacks a couple of years down the road.

Using the measuring stick of quarterback rating, it's Bridgewater who seems to have the best chance of long-term success. Carr is a little behind, while Bortles has the most work to do.

Over the last 25 years, only five quarterbacks have had better quarterback ratings in their rookie seasons than Bridgewater, and three of them (Wilson, Roethlisberger, Ryan) are legitimate NFL stars. Cutler is a more debatable case, but he's had some NFL success. RGIII is less clear, though injuries have been a factor there.

Bortles, in contrast, is in the same area as a number of NFL flops: Trent Edwards, Christian Ponder, Rick Mirer, Vince Young.

This is not an exact science, though. Charlie Batch and EJ Manuel also graded out well in their rookie seasons. And several very successful NFL quarterbacks, including Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford and Drew Bledsoe, are in that lower grouping.

Take it as a snapshot, though, that speaks favorably for Bridgewater's long-term chances of panning out for Minnesota.

Rookie numbers for quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds from the last 25 years (with at least 100 pass attempts), sorted by quarterback rating, are presented below. Quarterbacks drafted from the fourth round would be included were there any significant ones; fourth-rounder Kyle Orton was the most productive of those players, and his 59.7 would slot him just above Heath Shuler. The 2014 rookies are in bold.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, 1990-2014
Year	Player	Team	Att	Com	Pct	YdP	TDP	Int	Rate
2012	Robert Griffin III	Washington	393	258	65.6	3200	20	5	102.4
2012	Russell Wilson	Seahawks	393	252	64.1	3118	26	10	100.0
2004	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	295	196	66.4	2621	17	11	98.1
2006	Jay Cutler	Broncos	137	81	59.1	1001	9	5	88.5
2008	Matt Ryan	Falcons	434	265	61.1	3440	16	11	87.7
2014	Teddy Bridgewater	Vikings	402	259	64.4	2919	14	12	85.2
2011	Cam Newton	Panthers	517	310	60.0	4051	21	17	84.5
2013	Mike Glennon	Buccaneers	416	247	59.4	2608	19	9	83.9
1998	Charlie Batch	Lions	303	173	57.1	2178	11	6	83.5
1999	Shaun King	Bucs	146	89	61.0	875	7	4	82.4
2012	Nick Foles	Eagles	255	161	63.1	1699	6	5	82.1
2011	Andy Dalton	Bengals	516	300	58.1	3398	20	13	80.4
2008	Joe Flacco	Ravens	428	257	60.0	2971	14	12	80.3
2013	EJ Manuel	Bills	306	180	58.8	1972	11	9	77.7
2014	Derek Carr	Raiders	599	348	58.1	3270	21	12	76.6
2012	Andrew Luck	Colts	627	339	54.1	4374	23	18	76.5
2010	Sam Bradford	Rams	590	354	60.0	3512	18	15	76.5
2012	Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	484	282	58.3	3294	12	13	76.1
2010	Colt McCoy	Browns	222	135	60.8	1576	6	9	74.5
2006	Matt Leinart	Cardinals	377	214	56.8	2547	11	12	74.0
1990	Jeff George	Colts	334	181	54.2	2152	16	13	73.8
1999	Tim Couch	Browns	399	223	55.9	2447	15	13	73.2
1997	Jake Plummer	Cardinals	296	157	53.0	2203	15	15	73.1
2003	Byron Leftwich	Jaguars	418	239	57.2	2819	14	16	73.0
2012	Brandon Weeden	Browns	517	297	57.4	3385	14	17	72.6
2002	Patrick Ramsey	Washington	227	117	51.5	1539	9	8	71.8
1998	Peyton Manning	Colts	575	326	56.7	3739	26	28	71.2
1996	Tony Banks	Rams	368	192	52.2	2544	15	15	71.0
2007	Trent Edwards	Bills	269	151	56.1	1630	7	8	70.4
2005	Charlie Frye	Browns	164	98	59.8	1002	4	6	70.2
2011	Christian Ponder	Vikings	291	158	54.3	1853	13	13	70.1
2014	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	475	280	58.9	2908	11	17	69.5
1990	Tommy Hodson	Patriots	156	85	54.5	968	4	5	68.5
1993	Rick Mirer	Seahawks	486	274	56.4	2833	12	17	67.0
2006	Vince Young	Titans	357	184	51.5	2199	12	13	66.7
1999	Cade McNown	Bears	235	127	54.0	1465	8	10	66.7
2013	Geno Smith	Jets	443	247	55.8	3046	12	21	66.5
2011	Blaine Gabbert	Jaguars	413	210	50.8	2214	12	11	65.4
1993	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots	429	214	49.9	2494	15	15	65.0
2009	Mark Sanchez	Jets	364	196	53.8	2444	12	20	63.0
2001	Quincy Carter	Cowboys	176	90	51.1	1072	5	7	63.0
2002	David Carr	Texans	444	233	52.5	2592	9	15	62.8
2001	Michael Vick	Falcons	113	50	44.2	785	2	3	62.7
2003	Kyle Boller	Ravens	224	116	51.8	1260	7	9	62.4
1995	Kerry Collins	Panthers	432	214	49.5	2717	14	19	62.0
2009	Matthew Stafford	Lions	377	201	53.3	2267	13	20	61.0
1999	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	216	106	49.1	948	8	7	60.1
2002	Joey Harrington	Lions	429	215	50.1	2294	12	16	59.9
2009	Josh Freeman	Buccaneers	290	158	54.5	1855	10	18	59.8
1994	Heath Shuler	Washington	265	120	45.3	1658	10	12	59.6
2010	Jimmy Clausen	Panthers	299	157	52.5	1558	3	9	58.4
1992	Tommy Maddox	Broncos	121	66	54.5	757	5	9	56.4
1999	Akili Smith	Bengals	153	80	52.3	805	2	6	55.6
2004	Eli Manning	Giants	197	95	48.2	1043	6	9	55.4
1995	Eric Zeier	Browns	161	82	50.9	864	4	9	51.9
2007	John Beck	Dolphins	107	60	56.1	559	1	6	50.3
2005	Alex Smith	49ers	165	84	50.9	875	1	11	40.8
1998	Ryan Leaf	Chargers	245	111	45.3	1289	2	15	39.0

--Andy Richardson

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Factoid

Rookie Quarterbacks

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service