It's said that you need three years to accurately judge an incoming rookie. Three years after the 2012 NFL Draft, we can judge that class of running backs to be among the more disappointing of all time.
Working on updating our rookie files this week, in which we track all the numbers for skill position players in their first three seasons. With the 2012 rookie runners, very few have any 2014 statistics that can be updated, or need to be.
Trent Richardson, the first running back drafted, is the most significant disappointment. But he's not the only one.
Of the 11 running backs drafted in the first five rounds, only 2 figure to starters just three years later. Alfred Morris, drafted in the sixth round, is arguably the only top-quality NFL running back selected that year.
By way of comparison, consider the 2013 draft, which produced Andre Ellington, Eddie Lacy, LeVeon Bell and Giovani Bernard. Even 2011 looks better right now; it yielded DeMarco Murray, Mark Ingram, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley.
The crop of 2012 drafted runners is presented below. The players who are likeliest to help NFL or fantasy teams in 2015 are in bold. (Maybe Ronnie Hillman should be one of those players; I debated it. I was more generous with Dan Herron, but he's no lock to start in Indianapolis this year.)
2012 DRAFTED RUNNING BACKS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rd | Pick | Player | College | NFL Team | 2015? |
1 | 3 | Trent Richardson | Alabama | Browns/Colts/? | No. 3 at best |
1 | 31 | Doug Martin | Boise State | Buccaneers | Probable starter/committee back |
1 | 32 | David Wilson | Virginia Tech | Giants | Retired |
2 | 50 | Isaiah Pead | Cincinnati | Rams | Fighting for roster spot |
2 | 61 | LaMichael James | Oregon | 49ers/Dolphins | Fighting for roster spot |
3 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman | San Diego State | Broncos | No. 2 at best |
3 | 84 | Bernard Pierce | Temple | Ravens | No. 3 at best |
4 | 97 | Lamar Miller | Miami | Dolphins | Decent starter |
4 | 106 | Robert Turbin | Utah State | Seahawks | No. 2 at best |
5 | 159 | Chris Rainey | Florida | Steelers/Colts | Out of league |
5 | 170 | Vick Ballard | Mississippi State | Colts | No. 2 at best |
6 | 173 | Alfred Morris | Florida Atlantic | Washington | Pro Bowler |
6 | 182 | Cyrus Gray | Texas A&M | Kansas City | Fighting for roster spot |
6 | 191 | Dan Herron | Ohio State | Bengals/Colts | Possible starter/committee back |
6 | 202 | Terrance Ganaway | Baylor | Jets/Rams | Retired |
7 | 212 | Michael Smith | Utah State | Buccaneers | Out of league |
7 | 229 | Bryce Brown | Kansas State | Eagles/Bills | Possible starter/committee back |
7 | 250 | Edwin Baker | Michigan State | Chargers/Browns/Saints | Fighting for roster spot |
7 | 252 | Daryl Richardson | Abilene Christian | Rams/Jets | Fighting for roster spot |
--Andy Richardson