I’ve seen charts about rookie production of wide receivers and tight ends go by the last few days, and that reminds me that it’s harder for players to step in and excel at the tight end position.
With wide receivers, they mostly have to learn routes and catch the ball, the theory goes. With the tight ends, it’s like they have to be both wide receivers and offensive linemen. That’s contributed to so many of them being lightly used in their first seasons. Eric Ebron, most recently, wasn’t much of a factor in his first season with the Lions, after coming in as a heralded, Winslow-type tight end prospect.
With the wide receivers, meanwhile, three went over 1,000 yards in their first season last year.
As a takeaway, we should all pay more attention to second- and third-year tight ends than to rookies. Ebron, Jace Amaro and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, for example, are the breakout-type tight end prospects for 2015 – not the rookie tight ends who’ll be drafted in two months.
It’s like this. Look at all players selected in the first, second of third rounds in the 2003-2013 drafts. The top 25 wide receivers in those drafts averaged 59 catches, 868 yards and 6.4 TDs in their first years. Those guys (on average) in their second season caught only 4 more passes for 33 yards and a half more touchdown in their second year. Fantasy wise, they improved by under 5 percent.
The top 25 tight ends, on the other hand, improved by 12 catches, 145 yards and 1.3 TDs. They improved by over 36 percent (which is way more than 5 percent). That despite three of those tight ends essentially not playing in their second year because of injuries (Tony Moeaki, Dwayne Allen and Tyler Eifert).
| TOP ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS (2003-2013) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No1 | Yds1 | TD1 | No2 | Yds2 | TD2 |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 42 | 546 | 10 | 90 | 1327 | 17 |
| 2008 | John Carlson | 55 | 627 | 5 | 51 | 574 | 7 |
| 2005 | Heath Miller | 39 | 459 | 6 | 34 | 393 | 5 |
| 2010 | Tony Moeaki | 47 | 556 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller | 48 | 535 | 3 | 45 | 522 | 2 |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham | 52 | 471 | 4 | 56 | 596 | 6 |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz | 36 | 469 | 4 | 58 | 702 | 3 |
| 2012 | Dwayne Allen | 45 | 521 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed | 45 | 499 | 3 | 50 | 465 | 0 |
| 2004 | Chris Cooley | 37 | 314 | 6 | 71 | 774 | 7 |
| 2010 | Jimmy Graham | 31 | 356 | 5 | 99 | 1310 | 11 |
| 2007 | Zach Miller | 44 | 444 | 3 | 56 | 778 | 1 |
| 2013 | Tyler Eifert | 39 | 445 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| 2006 | Tony Scheffler | 18 | 286 | 4 | 49 | 549 | 5 |
| 2008 | Martellus Bennett | 20 | 283 | 4 | 15 | 159 | 0 |
| 2007 | Greg Olsen | 39 | 391 | 2 | 54 | 574 | 5 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith | 41 | 367 | 2 | 35 | 250 | 3 |
| 2009 | Brandon Pettigrew | 30 | 346 | 2 | 71 | 722 | 4 |
| 2006 | Vernon Davis | 20 | 265 | 3 | 52 | 509 | 4 |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph | 26 | 249 | 3 | 53 | 493 | 9 |
| 2003 | Jason Witten | 35 | 347 | 1 | 87 | 980 | 6 |
| 2012 | Coby Fleener | 26 | 281 | 2 | 52 | 608 | 4 |
| 2003 | Dallas Clark | 29 | 340 | 1 | 25 | 423 | 5 |
| 2004 | Ben Troupe | 33 | 329 | 1 | 55 | 530 | 4 |
| 2003 | L.J. Smith | 27 | 321 | 1 | 34 | 377 | 5 |
| TOP ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS (2003-2013) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No1 | Yds1 | TD1 | No2 | Yds2 | TD2 |
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin | 101 | 1377 | 8 | 56 | 623 | 1 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton | 80 | 1193 | 7 | 32 | 372 | 0 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 77 | 783 | 4 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 97 | 1350 | 11 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones | 54 | 959 | 8 | 79 | 1198 | 10 |
| 2004 | Lee Evans | 48 | 843 | 9 | 48 | 743 | 7 |
| 2004 | Roy Williams | 54 | 817 | 8 | 45 | 687 | 8 |
| 2007 | Dwayne Bowe | 70 | 995 | 5 | 86 | 1022 | 7 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton | 50 | 861 | 7 | 82 | 1083 | 5 |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal | 91 | 980 | 5 | 37 | 345 | 2 |
| 2009 | Percy Harvin | 60 | 790 | 8 | 71 | 868 | 7 |
| 2011 | Torrey Smith | 50 | 841 | 7 | 49 | 855 | 8 |
| 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald | 58 | 780 | 8 | 103 | 1409 | 10 |
| 2003 | Andre Johnson | 66 | 976 | 4 | 79 | 1142 | 6 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon | 64 | 865 | 5 | 29 | 415 | 1 |
| 2008 | DeSean Jackson | 62 | 912 | 4 | 62 | 1156 | 12 |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks | 47 | 790 | 6 | 79 | 1052 | 11 |
| 2009 | Mike Wallace | 39 | 756 | 6 | 60 | 1257 | 10 |
| 2012 | Josh Gordon | 50 | 805 | 5 | 87 | 1646 | 9 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson | 48 | 756 | 5 | 78 | 1331 | 12 |
| 2004 | Keary Colbert | 47 | 754 | 5 | 25 | 282 | 2 |
| 2010 | Dez Bryant | 45 | 561 | 8 | 63 | 928 | 9 |
| 2013 | Terrance Williams | 44 | 736 | 5 | 37 | 621 | 8 |
| 2009 | Jeremy Maclin | 56 | 773 | 4 | 70 | 964 | 10 |
| 2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 45 | 469 | 9 | 33 | 384 | 2 |
Another way to look at it is to toss out the guys who got hurt, benched or simply underachieved in their second year. Instead, just look at the top 25 rookies and compare them with the top 25 sophomores.
If you use this best vs. the best system, tight ends improve by 48 percent – 19 more catches, 249 more yards and 2.2 more touchdowns. You see guys coming out of nowhere and putting up great numbers – Travis Kelce last year, for example, exploded for 67 catches, 862 yards and 6 TDs after not catching any passes as a rookie.
Wide receivers, on the other hand, improved on average by only 28 percent – 13 more receptions for 222 more yards and 2.2 more touchdowns.
In this kind of comparison, it works against wide receivers that there are more of them (making it harder for the group as a whole to get a lot better). But it seems to be tight ends where you’re more likely to see a second-year leap.
—Ian Allan