The flag’s about to go down on free agency, and it’s looking like Randall Cobb probably will wind up at a new address. He’s a great player, and the Packers would like to keep him, but economics could get in the way.
Cobb would like to make $9 million per year. The Packers very much would like to keep him, but they’ve got to consider whether that money would be better utilized on other areas of their team. They’ve already got one franchise receiver (Jordy Nelson), and Davante Adams looks like he could soon develop into a Nelson-Cobb type receiver.
So this is very much a situation where the Packers might decide they won’t go a penny over $7 million to keep Cobb, and some other club places a higher value on him. According to the website OverTheCap.com there are five teams with over $40 million in cap space, and all but one of them might be interested in Cobb. Raiders, Browns, Jets, Titans.
If it goes down this way (with Cobb leaving) then we have to start looking at Davante Adams as one of the key puzzle pieces in fantasy drafts. He flashed some ability as a rookie, and if Cobb is removed from that offense, Adams might get enough looks to maybe be one of the league’s top 15 or 20 wide receivers.
That might sound weird, but many wide receivers in the past have made big stat jumps in their second season. In the last 20 years, 30 wide receivers have improved by at least 80 fantasy points in their second season. That’s using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. So to improve by 80-plus points, receivers can finish with either 800 more yards (and the same TD numbers) or improve by 13 touchdowns (with yards held the same).
Cobb was one of these guys himself. In his second year, he caught 55 more passes for 579 more yards and 7 more touchdowns.
It’s early, but I’ve got an eye on Adams.
| MOST IMPROVED RECEIVERS, 1994-2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No1 | Yds1 | TD1 | No2 | Yds2 | TD2 |
| 1994 | Isaac Bruce | 21 | 272 | 3 | 119 | 1781 | 13 |
| 2006 | Brandon Marshall | 20 | 309 | 2 | 102 | 1325 | 7 |
| 2011 | Cecil Shorts | 2 | 30 | 1 | 55 | 979 | 7 |
| 1995 | Antonio Freeman | 8 | 106 | 1 | 56 | 933 | 9 |
| 2012 | Alshon Jeffery | 24 | 367 | 3 | 89 | 1421 | 7 |
| 1998 | Germane Crowell | 25 | 464 | 3 | 81 | 1338 | 7 |
| 1995 | Chris T. Jones | 5 | 61 | 0 | 70 | 859 | 5 |
| 2008 | Mario Manningham | 4 | 26 | 0 | 57 | 822 | 5 |
| 2000 | Plaxico Burress | 22 | 273 | 0 | 66 | 1008 | 6 |
| 2007 | Steve Breaston | 8 | 92 | 0 | 77 | 1006 | 3 |
| 2012 | Josh Gordon | 50 | 805 | 5 | 87 | 1646 | 9 |
| 2001 | Chad Johnson | 28 | 329 | 1 | 69 | 1166 | 5 |
| 2010 | Antonio Brown | 16 | 167 | 0 | 69 | 1108 | 2 |
| 2012 | Marvin Jones | 18 | 201 | 1 | 51 | 712 | 10 |
| 2003 | Nate Burleson | 29 | 455 | 2 | 68 | 1006 | 10 |
| 2011 | Randall Cobb | 25 | 375 | 1 | 80 | 954 | 8 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson | 48 | 756 | 5 | 78 | 1331 | 12 |
| 1999 | David Boston | 40 | 473 | 2 | 71 | 1156 | 7 |
| 2008 | Pierre Garcon | 4 | 23 | 0 | 47 | 765 | 4 |
| 2001 | Koren Robinson | 39 | 536 | 1 | 78 | 1240 | 5 |
| 2010 | Eric Decker | 6 | 106 | 1 | 44 | 612 | 8 |
| 1994 | Johnnie Morton | 3 | 39 | 2 | 44 | 590 | 8 |
| 2002 | Javon Walker | 23 | 319 | 1 | 41 | 716 | 9 |
| 2000 | Laveranues Coles | 22 | 370 | 1 | 59 | 868 | 7 |
| 1999 | Torry Holt | 52 | 788 | 6 | 82 | 1635 | 6 |
| 2001 | Steve Smith | 10 | 154 | 3 | 54 | 872 | 5 |
| 2008 | Earl Bennett | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 717 | 2 |
| 2001 | Quincy Morgan | 30 | 432 | 2 | 56 | 964 | 7 |
| 2006 | Greg Jennings | 45 | 632 | 3 | 53 | 920 | 12 |
| 1998 | Hines Ward | 15 | 246 | 0 | 61 | 638 | 7 |
—Ian Allan