Fantasy Index

Factoid

March 11, 2015

Julius Thomas

Tight end should be involved in Jacksonville

Julius Thomas is leaving the Broncos for the Jaguars, a move that can only be considered a significant downgrade for his fantasy fortunes. No matter how Blake Bortles turns out, he's not going to be as prolific as Peyton Manning. Jacksonville could put together a decent passing offense, but it definitely won't be as good as Denver's. Ian Allan presented some Denver-Jacksonville comparative numbers yesterday.

That doesn't mean, though, that Thomas can't as least put together some sort of serviceable production for the Jaguars. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch didn't ignore the tight end in his offense. In 2013, his first year in Jacksonville, Jaguars tight ends accounted for 16 percent of the target distribution in the passing game. That's the same as Broncos tight ends accounted for last season. (Jacksonville has now hired Oakland's Greg Olson to run the offense; last year Mychal Rivera alone accounted for 16% of the passing game targets.)

That's below the percentage that the Broncos had in 2013, when Thomas was healthy all year (20 percent), but it's something. Last year, with Marcedes Lewis hurt much of the season, Jaguars tight ends accounted for only 12 percent of the targets in the passing game, but that's with only Clay Harbor at the position. With Thomas around, a lot more passes should be sent to the position.

Not to say Thomas will be nearly as productive in Jacksonville, especially as a scorer. But a rise back up to that 16 percent of targets figure is likely, giving Thomas a chance to at least be a fantasy starter...if not an elite one.

The other part of the equation is the tight end situation in Denver. They've signed Owen Daniels, and retained Virgil Green. This is a team that's going to throw a lot of passes to its tight ends, and those are now the main players.

TE TARGETS, 2013-2014
YearTeamTgts (TE)Tgts (Tot)%
2014Jaguars6655412%
2013Jaguars9458516%
2014Broncos9660316%
2013Broncos13667020%

--Andy Richardson

6 Reader Comments:

ANDREW THURMAN

Lake Forest Park, WA
2015-03-11T15:53:57Z
Andy, what might the effect be of Jacksonville switching offensive coordinators this year? You mention Jedd Fisch but not his replacement.

BEN HOGEVOLL

Siletz, OR
2015-03-11T16:00:23Z
Andy ,Did the Jimmy Graham signing with Seattle surprise you ?What does that do to his Fantasy value?

ANDY RICHARDSON

Port Chester, NY
2015-03-11T16:11:00Z
The belief I think is that new coordinator Greg Olson will be able to help develop Bortles. He seemed to do a nice job with Derek Carr last year. It's true, though, that it won't necessarily use the tight end as much as Fisch did. Oakland of course didn't have a tight end as talented as Julius Thomas last year. But, Mychal Rivera was targeted 99 times on his own (16 percent of the team's total), so I think it's a good sign for Thomas.

ANDY RICHARDSON

Port Chester, NY
2015-03-11T16:16:38Z
Ben I was as surprised as anyone by the Graham trade. I don't see any possible conclusion beyond it hurting Graham's value. We know Seattle won't pass as often as New Orleans. Their running game is better, their defense is better, they simply won't/don't have to pass as much as the Saints. Best you can say for Graham is that Seattle's wide receivers are lesser guys and Graham should account for a larger share of the passing production. But Seattle simply isn't going to pass for as many yards and touchdowns as the Saints did, so I think Graham is hurt by the trade. In New Orleans I think he was not far behind Gronkowski. Now I think he's closer to somebody like Greg Olsen than Gronk.

DENNIS LYONS

Elk Grove, CA
2015-03-11T16:46:08Z
All of this player movement makes fantasy drafts more interesting and challenging. But as far as real football goes I think it's a terrible thing and this is by far the worst year ever. Letting players go like McCoy, J. Thomas, Graham and probably Murray and Maclin makes no sense to me. These are all young players in the prime of their career who were great for their respective teams. If I was an Eagles ticket holder I would be looking for a refund. I can understand dumping Gore, Andre Johnson and even Brandon Marshall but if you can't keep your stars when they are in the prime of their career then the whole system needs to be looked at. Do you guys think all the player movement is strictly a result of the salary cap? To me it is starting to look like baseball in the late 1980s when the owners were found guilty of collusion. Thanks for giving me a place to express my thoughts.

ANDY RICHARDSON

Port Chester, NY
2015-03-11T18:42:01Z
It is difficult to look at what the Eagles are doing and see a clear plan. I can make a case for what other teams are doing - improving in some key area, dumping an aging veteran, or because of some cap issue or whatever. The Eagles cleaning house, I have no idea.
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