Julius Thomas is leaving the Broncos for the Jaguars, a move that can only be considered a significant downgrade for his fantasy fortunes. No matter how Blake Bortles turns out, he's not going to be as prolific as Peyton Manning. Jacksonville could put together a decent passing offense, but it definitely won't be as good as Denver's. Ian Allan presented some Denver-Jacksonville comparative numbers yesterday.
That doesn't mean, though, that Thomas can't as least put together some sort of serviceable production for the Jaguars. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch didn't ignore the tight end in his offense. In 2013, his first year in Jacksonville, Jaguars tight ends accounted for 16 percent of the target distribution in the passing game. That's the same as Broncos tight ends accounted for last season. (Jacksonville has now hired Oakland's Greg Olson to run the offense; last year Mychal Rivera alone accounted for 16% of the passing game targets.)
That's below the percentage that the Broncos had in 2013, when Thomas was healthy all year (20 percent), but it's something. Last year, with Marcedes Lewis hurt much of the season, Jaguars tight ends accounted for only 12 percent of the targets in the passing game, but that's with only Clay Harbor at the position. With Thomas around, a lot more passes should be sent to the position.
Not to say Thomas will be nearly as productive in Jacksonville, especially as a scorer. But a rise back up to that 16 percent of targets figure is likely, giving Thomas a chance to at least be a fantasy starter...if not an elite one.
The other part of the equation is the tight end situation in Denver. They've signed Owen Daniels, and retained Virgil Green. This is a team that's going to throw a lot of passes to its tight ends, and those are now the main players.
| TE TARGETS, 2013-2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Tgts (TE) | Tgts (Tot) | % |
| 2014 | Jaguars | 66 | 554 | 12% |
| 2013 | Jaguars | 94 | 585 | 16% |
| 2014 | Broncos | 96 | 603 | 16% |
| 2013 | Broncos | 136 | 670 | 20% |
--Andy Richardson