Sometimes we like to make drafts and auctiion strategy sound complicated, but in the end leagues are won by making the most profit on your investments. Of course, you need balance in your categories in roto leagues, but profiting the most on your players is really what it boils down to in the end. Here’s a look at some flyers in mixed and single leagues that can win you a championship this season.
Mixed League Investments
Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins
Some minor injuries have hindered what has otherwise been an impressive early career for Arcia, though he hasn’t been valued very highly in fantasy drafts going into 2015. Turning 24 in May, Arcia already has 34 homers through 723 major league at-bats, and he was a career .314 hitter in the minors. At worst, a healthy Arcia provides 20-30 home run power. At best, he could be Minnesota’s best hitter this season and a top 10 AL MVP candidate based on his track record.
Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B, A’s
So many fantasy owners have gotten burned by Lawrie over the last three seasons that his perceived value has plummeted. It’s easy to forget that he’s still only 25, and as recently as last season he hit 12 homers in only 70 games. Lawrie was a premium prospect often compared to Jeff Kent, and he even showed a fair base stealing contribution prior to last season. He’s hoping that a change of scenery from Toronto to Oakland will make a difference, and his remaining second base eligibility is certainly enticing.
Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH, Royals
The Royals let Billy Butler walk this offseason, but brought in a proven veteran to replace him. Morales made a mistake by holding out for a multi-year contract last year, only to settle on a one-year deal with the Twins near midseason. That layoff destroyed any time for momentum, but Morales averaged .275-22-76 in 2012-13 and is still only 32. He’s having a big spring, for what it’s worth, hitting .305-3-6 in 59 at-bats as he prepares to hit in the middle of KC’s lineup.
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Marcus Semien, 2B/3B, A’s
Semien opened last season as the White Sox starting third baseman, but was unable to run with the job. After spending a large portion of the year in the minors, he did get another shot late in the year. He was then shipped to Oakland this offseason as the centerpiece of the Jeff Samardzija trade, and the A’s are expected to employ Semien at shortstop. That will give him three position eligibility eventually, and he’s an accomplished minor league hitter with a total of 48 homers and 42 steals over the last three seasons. That power/speed combo could make Semien a nice profit.
Single League Investments
C.J. Cron, 1B/DH, Angels
Josh Hamilton’s situation makes Cron a regular for the Angels. He’s looked terrific this spring, hitting .412-2-10 with two steals and hitting 11 homers in 79 games last season. After making a splash early in his rookie season, Cron fell down to Earth and saw less playing time. It’s incredible that Cron played as well as he did considering that he played 36 fall and winter league games last offseason, too. With a full offseason to recover, the former 27 home run hitter shows big power upside for AL-only leagues.
Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
There is a perception that the Mets have a shortstop problem, based on trade rumors and discussion by the mainstream media during the offseason. Flores is out of place defensively as a shortstop, but he should still be able to hold his own with the bat. He is a former top prospect for the Mets, and hit a very respectable .263-5-22 in 53 games during the second half of the season. During his minor league career, Flores hit double-digit homers four times and was a career .292 hitter. The NL-only upside is huge as a shortstop.
J.A. Happ, SP, Mariners
Fantasy owners are familiar with Happ over the years, as he’s been nothing more than a league average pitcher after finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2009. The lefty has usually struggled with his control and keeping the ball in the park, but his development last season and the move to Seattle makes him very interesting. Happ added nearly 2 mph on his fastball last season, and it showed with a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP after the break. The lefty could have his home run issues remedied by pitcher-friendly Safeco Field this season, making him an even more intriguing option.
Ryan Rua, OF, Rangers
Texas has had a full competition for starting left fielder this spring, and it looks like Rua has won the battle. An underrated prospect in the minors, Rua hit .395-2-14 in 28 games last year after hiting .306-18-74 between Double-A and Triple-A. In 2013, Rua hit 32 homers, mostly at Low-A. Rua has often been overlooked because he has played against less advance competition in the minors, but Texas should given him plenty of margin for error and the advantages of a hitter-friendly home ballpark. It’s also notable that Rua is a converted third baseman, which could give him more opportunities if something happens to Adrian Beltre.
-Seth Trachtman