Jeremy Hill had a big rookie year for the Bengals, running for over 1,000 yards and averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. Four games over 140. In the last 40 years, only four rookies have gone over 1,000 with a better yards-per-carry average – Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis and Ickey Woods.
But a big first season doesn’t guarantee that a guy need to do little more than show up and collect big numbers in Year No. 2. The defenses are trying to.
In this century, 19 other running backs have gone over 1,000 yards in their first year. Of that group, only five ran for more yards in their second season, and only four had a higher average. Only six scored more touchdowns (and the touchdowns below include all touchdowns, not just runs).
A couple of those backs got hurt before they even hit the field, of course – Jamal Lewis and Dominic Rhodes. But risky assuming a good rookie will be great in his second year. Numbers suggest it’s more likely he’ll be worse.
Here are the second-year numbers of the last 20 1,000-yard rookie runners. For all numbers in bold, they are better than what he did in his first year.
| 1,000-YARD ROOKIE RUNNERS -- the next year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player, Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2001 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 0 | 0 | --- | 0 |
| 2001 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 175 | 678 | 3.87 | 4 |
| 2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 372 | 1188 | 4.52 | 15 |
| 2002 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 214 | 721 | 3.36 | 6 |
| 2002 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 0 | 0 | --- | 0 |
| 2003 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 290 | 1188 | 5.48 | 14 |
| 2004 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 302 | 1188 | 3.93 | 14 |
| 2005 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 186 | 664 | 3.56 | 5 |
| 2006 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 225 | 798 | 3.54 | 1 |
| 2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 261 | 1072 | 4.1 | 15 |
| 2008 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 250 | 1036 | 4.14 | 10 |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 363 | 1760 | 4.84 | 10 |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 358 | 2006 | 5.60 | 16 |
| 2009 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 258 | 929 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 2009 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 131 | 437 | 3.33 | 7 |
| 2011 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 184 | 781 | 4.24 | 5 |
| 2013 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 276 | 1275 | 4.61 | 7 |
| 2013 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 127 | 456 | 3.59 | 1 |
| 2014 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 246 | 1139 | 4.63 | 13 |
| 2015 | JEREMY HILL, Cin. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan