It's been two years since a running back was selected in the first round, but when the NFL Draft commences four weeks from tonight, there might be two. Many expect Georgia's Todd Gurley and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon to come off the board within the top 32 picks.
Should that happen, what can be expected from them as rookies? Since 2000, there have been 39 running backs drafted in the first round. Fewer than a quarter of those players (9) have rushed for 1,000 yards in their initial seasons, and only half (20) have reached 600. Particularly with Gurley coming off a torn ACL, the odds of either player making a significant impact as a rookie aren't great.
More troubling is the fact that very few of these first-round running backs have gone on to have great careers. Maybe that's why so few of them are drafted in the first round anymore? There's some subjectivity involved (Maybe some believe Reggie Bush is great, and maybe Mark Ingram will turn out that way), but it looks like only about a quarter of them (10) have gone on to have great careers. The rest have either been ordinary, or disappointments, or flat-out busts.
Not that other positions haven't been unpredictable, but it's clear that being drafted in the first round is no guarantee of running back success -- either as rookies, or long-term.
What is clear, at least, is that a fast start seems to be a good sign for a running back's career. Half (5) of the players who went on to be great were great as rookies, rushing for at least 1,100 yards.
First-round running backs since 2000, sorted by rookie rushing yards, are presented below.
| FIRST-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | Team | Att | Run | TD | Great? |
| 2012 | 1 | 31 | Doug Martin | Buccaneers | 319 | 1454 | 12 | No |
| 2000 | 1 | 5 | Jamal Lewis | Ravens | 309 | 1364 | 6 | Yes |
| 2007 | 1 | 7 | Adrian Peterson | Vikings | 238 | 1341 | 13 | Yes |
| 2001 | 1 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson | Chargers | 339 | 1236 | 10 | Yes |
| 2008 | 1 | 24 | Chris Johnson | Titans | 251 | 1228 | 10 | Yes |
| 2005 | 1 | 5 | Cadillac Williams | Bucs | 290 | 1178 | 6 | No |
| 2004 | 1 | 30 | Kevin Jones | Lions | 241 | 1133 | 6 | No |
| 2007 | 1 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch | Bills | 280 | 1115 | 7 | Yes |
| 2006 | 1 | 30 | Joseph Addai | Colts | 226 | 1081 | 8 | No |
| 2012 | 1 | 3 | Trent Richardson | Browns | 267 | 950 | 12 | No |
| 2009 | 1 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno | Broncos | 247 | 947 | 9 | No |
| 2005 | 1 | 2 | Ronnie Brown | Dolphins | 207 | 907 | 5 | No |
| 2002 | 1 | 16 | William Green | Browns | 243 | 887 | 6 | No |
| 2008 | 1 | 13 | Jonathan Stewart | Panthers | 184 | 836 | 10 | No |
| 2009 | 1 | 31 | Beanie Wells | Cardinals | 176 | 793 | 7 | No |
| 2000 | 1 | 11 | Ron Dayne | Giants | 228 | 770 | 5 | No |
| 2006 | 1 | 21 | Laurence Maroney | Patriots | 175 | 745 | 7 | No |
| 2001 | 1 | 27 | Michael Bennett | Vikings | 172 | 682 | 3 | No |
| 2010 | 1 | 12 | Ryan Mathews | Chargers | 158 | 678 | 7 | No |
| 2004 | 1 | 24 | Steven Jackson | Rams | 134 | 673 | 4 | Yes |
| 2006 | 1 | 2 | Reggie Bush | Saints | 155 | 565 | 9 | No |
| 2010 | 1 | 30 | Jahvid Best | Lions | 171 | 555 | 6 | No |
| 2002 | 1 | 18 | T.J. Duckett | Falcons | 130 | 507 | 4 | No |
| 2006 | 1 | 27 | DeAngelo Williams | Panthers | 121 | 501 | 2 | No |
| 2008 | 1 | 4 | Darren McFadden | Raiders | 113 | 499 | 4 | No |
| 2011 | 1 | 28 | Mark Ingram | Saints | 122 | 474 | 5 | No |
| 2000 | 1 | 7 | Thomas Jones | Cardinals | 112 | 373 | 2 | No |
| 2012 | 1 | 32 | David Wilson | Giants | 71 | 358 | 5 | No |
| 2000 | 1 | 19 | Shaun Alexander | Seahawks | 64 | 313 | 2 | Yes |
| 2010 | 1 | 9 | C.J. Spiller | Bills | 74 | 283 | 1 | No |
| 2009 | 1 | 27 | Donald Brown | Colts | 78 | 281 | 3 | No |
| 2005 | 1 | 4 | Cedric Benson | Bears | 67 | 272 | 0 | No |
| 2008 | 1 | 22 | Felix Jones | Cowboys | 30 | 266 | 4 | No |
| 2001 | 1 | 23 | Deuce McAllister | Saints | 16 | 91 | 2 | Yes |
| 2003 | 1 | 27 | Larry Johnson | Kansas City | 20 | 85 | 1 | Yes |
| 2008 | 1 | 23 | Rashard Mendenhall | Steelers | 19 | 58 | 0 | No |
| 2000 | 1 | 31 | Trung Canidate | Rams | 3 | 6 | 0 | No |
| 2004 | 1 | 26 | Chris Perry | Bengals | 2 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2003 | 1 | 23 | Willis McGahee | Bills | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
--Andy Richardson