We like to think that we know things, but we don’t. We all like to work under assumptions about the draft, but ultimately – a few years down the road – big holes show up in those cornerstones of logic. So while in the upcoming days, when everyone talks about Amari Cooper being the clear No. 1 receiver in this draft, for example, that will eventually be proven (or not) on the field.
Looking at the past drafts (and I’m working with just receivers here) it’s unusual for that safe, clear No. 1 guy to actually go on to be the best receiver in his class.
Here’s a rundown of the receiver classes in this century. For each group, I’m listing the top 10 guys, plus an extra or two if they’re really notable. The player who had the best career I’ve got in bold. The guy who had the second-best career, I’ve got a black dot next to his name.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2000 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
4 | Peter Warrick |
8 | Plaxico Burress |
10 | Travis Taylor |
21 | Sylvester Morris |
29 | R. Jay Soward |
32 | Dennis Northcutt |
36 | Todd Pinkston |
47 | Jerry Porter |
66 | Ron Dugans |
69 | Dez White |
78 | • (13) Laveranues Coles |
Peter Warrick was supposed to be unusually good as a receiver prospect. In hindsight, he wasn’t even the best receiver from his own college team (Laveranues Coles, the 13th receiver chosen) had some very solid years.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2001 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
8 | David Terrell |
9 | Koren Robinson |
15 | Rod Gardner |
16 | Santana Moss |
25 | Freddie Mitchell |
30 | •Reggie Wayne |
33 | Quincy Morgan |
36 | Chad Johnson |
41 | Robert Ferguson |
52 | Chris Chambers |
74 | (11) Steve Smith |
For 2001, Santana Moss, Chris Chambers and Chad Johnson also had some good years, but the best of the class wasn’t even one of the first 10 chosen. Steve Smith was great for a decade in Carolina.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2002 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
13 | Donte Stallworth |
19 | Ashley Lelie |
20 | Javon Walker |
33 | Jabar Gaffney |
36 | Josh Reed |
46 | Tim Carter |
47 | Andre Davis |
48 | Reche Caldwell |
62 | Antwaan Randle El |
63 | •Antonio Bryant |
65 | (11) Deion Branch |
Not a great class. I went with Javon Walker with the top guy because he had one monster season before getting hurt.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2003 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
2 | Charles Rogers |
3 | Andre Johnson |
17 | Bryant Johnson |
44 | Taylor Jacobs |
45 | Bethel Johnson |
54 | •Anquan Boldin |
60 | Tyrone Calico |
65 | Kelley Washington |
71 | Nate Burleson |
74 | Kevin Curtis |
Charles Rogers was supposed to be the best. Even before the drug problems that escorted him out of the league appeared, I thought he looked ordinary in his initial preseason games – not as big as I was expected. He looked like just a guy.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2004 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
3 | Larry Fitzgerald |
7 | Roy Williams |
9 | Reggie Williams |
13 | Lee Evans |
15 | Michael Clayton |
29 | Michael Jenkins |
31 | Rashaun Woods |
50 | Devery Henderson |
54 | Darius Watts |
62 | Keary Colbert |
FA | •Wes Welker |
Everybody thought Fitzgerald would be great, and he was. The 2nd-best receiver from this class, however, wasn’t even one of the 31 who was drafted. Wes Welker carved out a home as a great slot receiver.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2005 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
3 | Braylon Edwards |
7 | Troy Williamson |
10 | Mike Williams |
21 | Matt Jones |
22 | Mark Clayton |
27 | Roddy White |
35 | Reggie Brown |
39 | Mark Bradley |
55 | Roscoe Parrish |
58 | Terrence Murphy |
61 | •(11) Vincent Jackson |
Braylon Edwards had one great season, but Roddy White and Vincent Jackson have had far more prodigious careers.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2006 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
25 | Santonio Holmes |
36 | Chad Jackson |
44 | Sinorice Moss |
52 | •Greg Jennings |
78 | Travis Wilson |
82 | Derek Hagan |
84 | Brandon Williams |
90 | Maurice Stovall |
95 | Willie Reid |
100 | Michael Robinson |
119 | (16) Brandon Marshall |
252 | •(31) Marques Colston |
For 2006, the best receiver by far has been the 16th one chosen – Brandon Marshall. I didn’t know where to go with Jennings or Colston as the 2nd-best, so I flagged them both.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2007 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
2 | Calvin Johnson |
9 | Ted Ginn Jr. |
23 | •Dwayne Bowe |
27 | Robert Meachem |
30 | Craig Davis |
32 | Anthony Gonzalez |
44 | Sidney Rice |
45 | Dwayne Jarrett |
51 | Steve Smith |
73 | Jacoby Jones |
Calvin Johnson is like Fitzgerald. Everybody thought we was the best by far, and it played out that way. The Steve Smith here isn’t the Carolina Steve Smith but the Southern Cal Steve Smith who was a possession guy who had one 100-catch season with the Giants.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2008 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
33 | Donnie Avery |
34 | Devin Thomas |
36 | Jordy Nelson |
41 | James Hardy |
42 | Eddie Royal |
46 | Jerome Simpson |
49 | •DeSean Jackson |
51 | Malcolm Kelly |
53 | Limas Sweed |
70 | Earl Bennett |
224 | (30) Stevie Johnson |
No first-round receivers in 2008. Two big hits in the 2nd round – Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2009 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey |
10 | Michael Crabtree |
19 | Jeremy Maclin |
22 | Percy Harvin |
29 | Hakeem Nicks |
30 | Kenny Britt |
36 | Brian Robiskie |
50 | Mohamed Massaquoi |
82 | Derrick Williams |
83 | Brandon Tate |
84 | (11) Mike Wallace |
232 | •(29) Julian Edelman |
This was a heralded receiving class, and many of them have had their moments. But none has had really grabbed the league by the horns. I wasn’t sure which guy to put in bold – Maclin, Harvin, Nicks and Crabtree all might have been the No. 1 bolded guy at one point. Two selected outside the top 10 have been better values and maybe better players – Wallace and Edelman.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2010 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
22 | Demaryius Thomas |
24 | Dez Bryant |
36 | Dexter McCluster |
39 | Arrelious Benn |
60 | Golden Tate |
77 | Damian Williams |
78 | Brandon LaFell |
82 | Emmanuel Sanders |
84 | Jordan Shipley |
87 | Eric Decker |
195 | (23) Antonio Brown |
For 2009, I didn’t put any receivers in bold and used some extra 2nd-place votes. I’ll make up for it here. Thomas, Bryant and Brown have all been outstanding receivers who would be the best receiver by far in a lot of years. Brown, remarkably, was just a sixth-round pick.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2011 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
4 | A.J. Green |
6 | •Julio Jones |
26 | Jon Baldwin |
44 | Titus Young |
58 | Torrey Smith |
59 | Greg Little |
64 | Randall Cobb |
78 | Austin Pettis |
79 | Leonard Hankerson |
82 | Vincent Brown |
Scouts got it right in 2011. Green and Jones are the clear top 2, just like everyone thought they would be.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2012 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
5 | Justin Blackmon |
13 | Michael Floyd |
20 | Kendall Wright |
30 | A.J. Jenkins |
33 | Brian Quick |
43 | Stephen Hill |
45 | Alshon Jeffery |
54 | Ryan Broyles |
63 | Rueben Randle |
68 | DeVier Posey |
92 | •(13) T.Y. Hilton |
For 2012, it’s an off-the-radar year. Jeffery and Hilton are definitely the top 2, and neither was selected in the top 40.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2013 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
8 | Tavon Austin |
27 | DeAndre Hopkins |
29 | Cordarrelle Patterson |
34 | Justin Hunter |
41 | Robert Woods |
59 | Aaron Dobson |
74 | Terrance Williams |
76 | •Keenan Allen |
78 | Marquise Goodwin |
79 | Markus Wheaton |
Tavon Austin was supposed to be a special, difference-making kind of player in 2013. Hasn’t happened at all.
TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2014 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
4 | Sammy Watkins |
7 | •Mike Evans |
12 | Odell Beckham Jr. |
20 | Brandin Cooks |
28 | Kelvin Benjamin |
39 | Marqise Lee |
42 | Jordan Matthews |
45 | Paul Richardson |
53 | Davante Adams |
56 | Cody Latimer |
It’s still early for the 2014 draft class. Watkins looks fine. But if they were redrafting today, I’m pretty sure the vast majority of teams would draft Beckham or Evans instead.
Conclusion: For the 2015 draft, the default reasoning is to assume as everyone talks about these receivers, the top guys will be those two everyone is talking about – Amari Cooper and Kevin White. And those guys are fine. I have no problem with either of them. But keep in mind that there are a dozen other viable receivers in this class, and history tells us it’s very likely that some of them will be better than Cooper, White or even both Cooper and White. So we’ll need to trust our own eyes. We should not underestimate guys like Dorial Green-Beckham, Breshan Perriman and Tre McBride. Maybe we like the situation they are drafted into. Maybe we like the way they look in the preseason. History tells us that only rarely does it play out in expected standard script.