Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are the best running backs in this draft. They’ll be selected in the first round – maybe even the first half of the first round. That’s what everyone seems to agree on. But is that actually true? History indicates that a few years down the road, probably neither Gurley nor Gordon will be the best of the 2015 rookie runners.
I did this yesterday with the wide receivers. This is the running backs version. You take the first 10 selected, then using hindsight identify the guy who winded up having the best career. I’ve got those guys in bold. The 2nd-best guys, I’ve flagged them with a black dot.
I don’t want to bore you by listing 20-25 running backs each year, so I’m listing just the first 10 for each draft. If there was somebody else who was significant, I toss him on at the bottom for 2001, for example, Rudi Johnson was the 11th running back chosen, so I put him at the bottom with an 11 in front of his name. And Dominic Rhodes signed with the Colts (and later had a 1,000-yard season), so I’ve got him there also.
Anyway, results as similar to what we saw with wide receivers. Heading into the draft, it’s easy to operate under the assumption that Gurley and Gordon will be the best, but the field is a difficult opponent to overcome. In the last 15 drafts, only three times have the best two running backs also been the first two chosen.
A year-by-year look at running backs …
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2000 | |
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Pk | Player |
5 | • Jamal Lewis |
7 | Thomas Jones |
11 | Ron Dayne |
19 | Shaun Alexander |
31 | Trung Canidate |
63 | Travis Prentice |
76 | J.R. Redmond |
81 | Rueben Droughns |
88 | Doug Chapman |
96 | Terrelle Smith |
Some will call Lewis the best running back of this draft. He won a Super Bowl had a 2,000-yard season. But I think Alexander was a little better – more elusive. Jones was a slow starter; didn’t become a good player until later in his career. Dayne was supposed to be really good but wasn’t.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2001 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
5 | LaDainian Tomlinson |
23 | • Deuce McAllister |
27 | Michael Bennett |
38 | Anthony Thomas |
49 | LaMont Jordan |
58 | Travis Henry |
65 | James Jackson |
80 | Kevan Barlow |
82 | Heath Evans |
85 | Travis Minor |
100 | (11) Rudi Johnson |
FA | (undrafted) Dominic Rhodes |
Here’s one where the scouts got it right. Tomlinson definitely the best, and McAllister was No. 2.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2002 | |
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Pk | Player |
16 | William Green |
18 | T.J. Duckett |
34 | DeShaun Foster |
51 | Clinton Portis |
54 | Maurice Morris |
56 | Ladell Betts |
84 | Lamar Gordon |
91 | • Brian Westbrook |
99 | Jonathan Wells |
107 | Omar Easy |
207 | (21) Chester Taylor |
Portis goes in the late in the second round and was way better than the three guys selected before him. Westbrook, selected late in the third round, was other significant back in this group. William Green (from Boston College) was most everyone’s top running back prospect but wasn’t considered an elite top-10 type guy.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2003 | |
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Pk | Player |
23 | • Willis McGahee |
27 | Larry Johnson |
77 | Musa Smith |
85 | B.J. Askew |
93 | Chris Brown |
96 | Justin Fargas |
99 | Artose Pinner |
101 | Domanick Davis |
105 | Onterrio Smith |
108 | Quentin Griffin |
Bills went with McGahee late in the first round, even though they knew who probably wouldn’t play as a rookie because of a Fiesta Bowl knee injury. He had a solid pro career, with 1,000-yard seasons for multiple teams, but was never special. But at least the first two running backs selected in this year were also the best.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2004 | |
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Pk | Player |
24 | Steven Jackson |
26 | Chris Perry |
30 | Kevin Jones |
41 | Tatum Bell |
43 | Julius Jones |
55 | Greg Jones |
119 | Mewelde Moore |
128 | Cedric Cobbs |
154 | • Michael Turner |
156 | Mike Karney |
FA | (undrafted) Willie Parker |
Two great runners in this draft, and they both finished their careers plodding for minimal yardages as 30-somethings in Atlanta. Parker wasn’t drafted at all and had some long gainers for the Steelers. He was the No. 3 back in this year.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2005 | |
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Pk | Player |
2 | Ronnie Brown |
4 | Cedric Benson |
5 | Cadillac Williams |
44 | J.J. Arrington |
54 | Eric Shelton |
65 | Frank Gore |
73 | Vernand Morency |
77 | Ryan Moats |
101 | Maurice Clarett |
109 | Marion Barber |
130 | • (15) Darren Sproles |
FA | (undrafted) Ryan Grant |
There was three-back debate in the top 5 this year, with Benson and the two Auburn backs. The first pick of the third round, Gore, ended up being a lot better than any of them. Sproles was the 15th running back chosen and is still rocking as a third-down back.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2006 | |
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Pk | Player |
2 | Reggie Bush |
21 | Laurence Maroney |
27 | • DeAngelo Williams |
30 | Joseph Addai |
45 | LenDale White |
60 | Maurice Jones-Drew |
74 | Brian Calhoun |
79 | Jerious Norwood |
117 | Leon Washington |
132 | P.J. Daniels |
FA | (undrafted) Fred Jackson |
Bush seemed to be an elite, Barry Sanders type guy, but it just never happened. Then Bill Belichick tried to squeeze in Maroney as the 2nd back. DeAngelo Williams was better than both of those guys, and MJD was probably the best of the class. Fred Jackson wasn’t even drafted and has had a nice career.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2007 | |
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Pk | Player |
7 | Adrian Peterson |
12 | • Marshawn Lynch |
49 | Kenny Irons |
50 | Chris Henry |
63 | Brandon Jackson |
71 | Lorenzo Booker |
90 | Tony Hunt |
93 | Garrett Wolfe |
100 | Michael Bush |
107 | Antonio Pittman |
250 | (18) Ahmad Bradshaw |
FA | (undrafted) Pierre Thomas |
Scouts got it right this year. Peterson was a dominate back from Day One. Lynch has also been awesome. Some nice gems late, with Bradshaw (who had some off-field stuff at Marshall) and Pierre Thomas, who wasn’t even drafted.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2008 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
4 | Darren McFadden |
13 | Jonathan Stewart |
22 | Felix Jones |
23 | Rashard Mendenhall |
24 | • Chris Johnson |
44 | • Matt Forte |
55 | Ray Rice |
64 | Kevin Smith |
69 | Jacob Hester |
73 | Jamaal Charles |
227 | (24) Peyton Hillis |
233 | (25) Justin Forsett |
FA | (undrafted) BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
McFadden was supposed to be the superstar in this group, and he’s not even in the top 5. I’ll go with Charles as the best of the group, and I’m letting Chris Johnson and Forte shared the No. 2 spot. Ray Rice was also really good for a while. The 25th running back chosen, Forsett, ran for 1,266 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2009 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
12 | Knowshon Moreno |
27 | Donald Brown |
31 | Beanie Wells |
53 | • LeSean McCoy |
65 | Shonn Greene |
74 | Glen Coffee |
111 | Mike Goodson |
129 | Andre Brown |
134 | Gartrell Johnson |
169 | Frank Summers |
FA | (undrafted) Arian Foster |
Everyone agreed that Moreno was the best running back in this group. Probably more coveted than all of the other rookies combined. But Foster (not even drafted) and McCoy have been way better.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2010 | |
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Pk | Player |
9 | C.J. Spiller |
12 | Ryan Mathews |
30 | Jahvid Best |
51 | Toby Gerhart |
58 | Ben Tate |
59 | Montario Hardesty |
112 | Joe McKnight |
139 | John Conner |
173 | Anthony Dixon |
180 | Deji Karim |
FA | • (undrafted) Joique Bell |
FA | • (undrafted) LeGarrette Blount |
I wasn’t sure who to make the No. 1 back in this class. I went with Mathews. Relative to where they were selected (not even drafted), Joique Bell and LeGarrette Blount have been way better. I had them share the No. 2.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2011 | |
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Pk | Player |
28 | • Mark Ingram |
38 | Ryan Williams |
56 | Shane Vereen |
57 | Mikel Leshoure |
62 | Daniel Thomas |
71 | DeMarco Murray |
73 | Stevan Ridley |
96 | Alex Green |
105 | Roy Helu |
115 | Kendall Hunter |
I had Ingram the No. 2 back in this group, but also could have gone with Vereen or Ridley. Ingram has been a disappointment as a first-round pick (but picked up his game some last year).
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2012 | |
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Pk | Player |
3 | Trent Richardson |
31 | Doug Martin |
32 | David Wilson |
50 | Isaiah Pead |
61 | LaMichael James |
67 | Ronnie Hillman |
84 | Bernard Pierce |
97 | • Lamar Miller |
106 | Robert Turbin |
159 | Chris Rainey |
173 | (12) Alfred Morris |
191 | (14) Dan Herron |
The thinking was that Richardson would be an Adrian Peterson type guy. Hasn’t happened. Alfred Morris has been the best running back in this class, and nobody was thinking about him until he started blowing through holes in the preseason games that year.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2013 | |
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Pk | Player |
37 | Giovani Bernard |
48 | LeVeon Bell |
58 | Montee Ball |
61 | • Eddie Lacy |
62 | Christine Michael |
96 | Knile Davis |
125 | Johnathan Franklin |
131 | Marcus Lattimore |
135 | Denard Robinson |
140 | Stepfan Taylor |
181 | (15) Latavius Murray |
187 | (17) Andre Ellington |
FA | (undrafted) C.J. Anderson |
Three of the first four running backs have been pretty good. Bell and Lacy seem to be the best.
TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2014 | |
---|---|
Pk | Player |
54 | Bishop Sankey |
55 | Jeremy Hill |
57 | Carlos Hyde |
69 | Charles Sims |
75 | • Tre Mason |
94 | Terrance West |
96 | Jerick McKinnon |
97 | Dri Archer |
103 | Devonta Freeman |
113 | Andre Williams |
FA | (undrafted) Isaiah Crowell |
Sankey was the first running back chosen. If teams could re-draft, he wouldn’t be one of the first half dozen. Hill is definitely No. 1. Mason or Hyde would be the next chosen. The Browns have a good pair, with West (third round) and Crowell (not even drafted).
So this is the same as the wide receivers. We all tend to salivate over Gurley and Gordon, and maybe those guys will be great. History suggests it’s almost a lead-pipe lock that some other rookie will be better than at least one of those guys.