The NFL Draft kicks off tomorrow, and it really is like Christmas. Your favorite team, or perhaps your dynasty team, gets a new present or two under the tree. There are ample mock drafts around, but what I'm going to do is just predict/guess where the top dozen projected offensive skill position players will end up. So here we go.
Jameis Winston: There's no reason to think he won't be selected No. 1 overall by Tampa Bay. There he'll get to work with a couple of great wide receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, and (not to be underestimated) play a schedule dominated by NFC South teams who with the exception of Carolina aren't known for playing defense. Tampa isn't either, so Winston could find himself throwing the ball a lot from the get-go. I have some interest in Winston in dynasty.
Marcus Mariota: I may be naive, but I am buying that the Titans are comfortable enough with Zach Mettenberger that they want to trade the No. 2 overall pick. So who's going to come up and get him? Seems like Cleveland to me. If that's how things shake out, the best I can say is that Mariota could be the player the Browns hoped they were getting when they drafted Johnny Manziel a year ago. And during or after the draft they can trade Manziel to Jerry Jones, where he can be groomed as Dallas' quarterback of the future. Stranger things have happened.
Amari Cooper: I like Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee, but the speculation linking Cooper to the Jaguars here is too strong to be ignored. If the Jags don't take him, the Raiders probably will.
Kevin White: White is more of a Raiders type of pick, and I could see them taking him even if Cooper is still on the board. Oakland badly needs a No. 1 type of receiver to help Derek Carr. If Jacksonville goes defense, whichever of these two receivers is left won't get by the Bears at No. 7.
Todd Gurley: I think the Falcons will be happy to take the draft's best running back at No. 8. If not -- if they decide instead to fortify the offensive line or grab a defensive playmaker with the pick -- the Chargers or Lions seem most likely to trade their way up to take him. He'd be a feature back fairly quickly for any of the three teams.
Melvin Gordon: Working hard to not put Gordon in Dallas, but that's what I see happening. The team's recent quotes saying drafting a running back isn't a must just seem like a smoke screen so they can get their guy without trading up too far. But they might have to trade up, perhaps with the Steelers at 22, because the Cardinals at 24 and Ravens at 26 are also possibilities (though I see the Ravens as willing to be patient to take a second-round running back).
Dorial Green-Beckham: So many teams are looking for a big, playmaking receiver, including three in the AFC North. The Browns, Ravens and Bengals are all reasonable possibilities, though we can quickly dismiss the Browns who will shy away given their experience with Josh Gordon. I think the Ravens make the most sense, although I admit I don't know what teams will simply decide his off-field history isn't worth the high pick.
Ameer Abdullah: When the Ravens miss out on a back in the first round, I can see them looking at Abdullah in the second or third. There's some Ray Rice to his game. I also think the possibility of the Colts using an early pick on a running back is being underestimated, since Frank Gore can't go on forever.
Breshad Perriman: Very interested to see where Perriman ends up. Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia, Cleveland -- all of these teams could use a young WR to groom as a No. 1 or 1A. I think it's a given, though, that the Saints use one of their two first-round picks on a wide receiver, so I think Perriman could be a Saint.
DeVante Parker: Another possible Saint or Raven. Apologies for hedging, but only the teams really know which of these talented wideouts they like best. Parker to the Ravens, if he's there, or maybe the Dolphins looks good to me.
T.J. Yeldon: Certainly the Cowboys are a possibility if they don't wind up with Gordon. But I think he looks like a Dolphins pick.
Tevin Coleman: Sorry to throw cold water on those holding Latavius Murray in dynasty leagues, but the Raiders are going to draft a running back in the first three rounds, and Coleman is a strong possibility.
If I'm way off on these, feel free to tell me your thoughts before the draft takes place, or rip them afterward. Couple days from now, we'll know for sure.