The first round of the draft is history, but the top picks in upcoming dynasty drafts are just getting started. My own rookie draft begins a week from today, and early next week I'll try to predict how it will go, then post a recap after it happens. For now, here are my quick dynasty-type thoughts on what the first round gave us.
The quarterbacks: Maybe I bought into the Marcus Mariota to Philadelphia rumors because I really wanted him to go to Philadelphia. I have little doubt that almost any quarterback will be fantasy relevant running the Eagles offense, just as I have little faith that Ken Whisenhunt and the Titans are the right team to properly develop and utilize Mariota's skills. The offensive talent isn't great, and the decision-makers don't seem particularly secure in their positions.
As I said a couple of days ago, I'm very interested in Jameis Winston running the Bucs offense, throwing to that great pair of wideouts. Mariota running a lesser Titans offense led by an iffy coaching staff and needing to adapt his game to the NFL? Not promising.
The running backs: Like everybody else, I was surprised by the Rams taking Todd Gurley. On the bright side, it saves us all making the mistake of drafting Tre Mason early next year in hopes the team would try to feature him, since he is a limited player who was always going to be best in a secondary role. Gurley is an every-down talent and I have little doubt that he'll be in that every-down role by midseason (the team will likely bring him along slowly given the ACL recovery), or definitely by next season. Remember when the Vikings drafted Adrian Peterson he started out behind Chester Taylor; that didn't last long.
The big question now (as it was prior to the draft, but even moreso given the great situation Melvin Gordon landed in with the Chargers) is, Who is the top dynasty running back? For me, it's still Gurley. Maybe not in 2015, but I watch the guy and see a special talent. Gordon looks good to me and will probably be better in 2015 (and has no competition to start), but I'm still leaning toward the guy I think is the superior talent. I'm picking 6th in my dynasty draft and if people shy away from Gurley because of situation I'll be all over him.
The wide receivers: Amari Cooper or Kevin White? White looks like the way more exciting player, and we tend to think of the Bears as boasting the more potent offense than Oakland. But let's see. John Fox is running the show now, the Bears have some questions at quarterback (they apparently wanted to trade up for Mariota), and they also have another hugely talented wideout in Alshon Jeffery. The Raiders have absolutely nothing else at receiver and seem to have a solid young quarterback in Derek Carr. I think both wideouts will be Week 1 starters, but quarterback questions aside, I'm more intrigued by White's superior size and speed. Cooper looks like the safer pick, White the more likely to be the next Julio Jones.
Four other wideouts went in the first round, and it's hard not to be very intrigued by three of them. I'm going to dismiss Phillip Dorsett (while not mispronouncing his name, good grief) strictly because it already seemed like the Colts had a crowded situation at wideout, and now it's an even bigger concern. Do they simply not like Donte Moncrief much? Do they anticipate a huge contract issue with T.Y. Hilton? Whatever the case, I can't see myself getting overly interested in Dorsett in fantasy, despite his great quarterback situation.
DeVante Parker (Dolphins), Breshad Perriman (Ravens), Nelson Agholor (Eagles). That's how I'd have ranked them before the draft. Now? I think I'll leave them in those spots for the moment, though I might wish Parker had ended up somewhere else. But I suspect he'll quickly move past Kenny Stills to start in Miami, with Stills a situational No. 3 guy. I love Perriman, and his situation looks ideal. He struggled with drops in college, but he's a whole lot better, I think, than someone like Darrius Heyward-Bey. No doubt he's going to be starting in Baltimore sooner rather than later. Agholor goes to the best passing offense on paper, though I admit I'm a little concerned about the quarterback situation in Philly.
Dismissing the quarterbacks, none of whom I'd draft in the first round of a rookie draft, my initial thoughts here are that they should be ranked Gurley, White, Cooper, Gordon, Parker, Perriman, Agholor. We'll see how round 2 and 3, which should feature plenty of running backs and receivers, will further tweak that.