Another NFL Draft is in the books, which means I'm just a few days away from another rookie draft in my dynasty league. The importance of these incoming rookies can't be underestimated; back in 2007, in the league's first-ever rookie draft, the top three picks were Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson and Marshawn Lynch. Seldom do those picks pan out so well, but you never know.
My draft starts Friday, an extended-format three-round draft that will probably be completed by the end of the weekend. I'll wrap it up next week, but for now I'll just predict how I think the rookies will -- not necessarily should -- be drafted. This is a PPR league with running backs getting a half point per reception, wide receivers 1 point, and tight ends 1.5.
1. Todd Gurley, Rams. I'm not certain of this, because there are three other players who might conceivably go in this spot (the next three). Positional scarcity tends to give an edge to running backs, and since it's dynasty the possibility that Gurley, who tore his ACL in November, isn't ready at the start of the year is minimized. If I had the top pick I'm not certain right now whether I'd take Gurley or one of the wide receivers, but my guess is it will be him.
2. Melvin Gordon, Chargers. Given Gordon's fantastic landing spot and the fact he's not coming off a torn ACL, it won't surprise me at all if he's the top pick. Since Ian Allan has written that he's not blown away by what he's seen from Gurley, he might even be our top pick. To me Gurley looks like the more talented runner, and I'm leaning Gurley, but I can't greatly fault anyone for going with Gordon. Again, he could also slip to No. 4, since the next two wide receivers also look great.
3. Amari Cooper, Raiders. Some may be wary of Cooper's landing spot, but I'm buying into Derek Carr, and I know the Raiders don't have a receiver close to Cooper in terms of talent. I think Cooper will be starting and performing at a high level very quickly, and given the longer careers wide receivers have compared to running backs, you can make a case for him at 1.01. It might happen in this draft or many drafts. We've seen too many Raiders' top picks flop in recent years not to be wary, but I like Cooper and would consider him at 1 or 2.
4. Kevin White, Bears. White, like the first three picks, could go anywhere from 1 to 4. Working against him is that the Bears already have an outstanding young wideout in Alshon Jeffery, and of course they've got Jay Cutler slinging it for 2015, and who knows after that. I think White has a lot of upside and might ultimately rank him ahead of Cooper, but there's a little bit of risk, too.
5. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars. After the top 4 picks is when most rookie drafts will get kind of crazy. Potential franchise runner or receiver? I'm not a big Yeldon fan -- looks ordinary to me -- and wouldn't select him here (or at 6, where I'm actually picking; thanks to previous trades, including Josh Gordon, I have 6, 7 and 11), but I suspect he'll be the 3rd running back off the board in most drafts.
6. DeVante Parker, Dolphins. I know the guy picking at 5 and think he might go with a wide receiver, and again there are several choices; Parker and the next three wide receivers I'll write about. Parker doesn't have an ideal landing spot, perhaps, but it's not terrible, and he could be the No. 1 fairly quickly.
7. Tevin Coleman, Falcons. Opinions are split on Coleman, who has good size and great speed, and ran for over 2,000 yards at Indiana last year. He's also a bit of a straight-ahead or at most one-cut runner who could struggle if he doesn't get a hole and will take too many hits. That said, I think he could be a Chris Johnson type with the speed to bust some big runs and be a big-time fantasy back.
8. Nelson Agholor, Eagles. Landing spot will play into his early draft selection, as we all know the kind of numbers we can get out of Chip Kelly's offense. Agholor is a smart and polished receiver known for excellent route-running, with the kind of skill-set that could help him make a quick impact. Could go a few picks earlier.
9. Ameer Abdullah, Lions. I love his tape and think he's going to be a very good NFL player. Questions surround his size and whether he'll be viewed as a lead guy or just a complimentary piece (you see him compared to Giovani Bernard). He might go a spot or two higher if people saw him play at Nebraska, but this is about where I expect he'll go.
10. Breshad Perriman, Ravens. His near-ideal landing spot with Joe Flacco, Marc Trestman's offense, and no other noteworthy receiver besides Steve Smith could have Perriman selected earlier than this. Whatever the case, he struggled with drops in college and that's a red flag, but he has the upside to be a really good No. 1 receiver, and will likely be a late first-round pick.
11. Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans. You see a lot of Josh Gordon comps since he's big, talented, and has some off-field concerns. For me, those are enough that I probably won't be drafting him (the one that really worries me is an occasional lack of effort; not what you want out of a rookie wideout who's going to a bad team). But for those willing to take the risk and maybe getting a Randy Moss-level talent, he could pay off quite well.
12. Devin Smith, Jets. I struggled to decide who to put here, ultimately settling on Smith. Phillip Dorsett is another possibility, but even dynasty owners aren't patient (and Brandon Marshall will probably flame out with the Jets before Dorsett cracks the lineup with the Colts). For now I'll put Smith here, and Dorsett will probably be the 2.01 pick -- when I mock the 2nd round in the next day or two.