I’m not a big Marcus Mariota fan. I’m already on record with Jameis Winston being the better pro. I like Winston’s ability to stand in the pocket and throw downfield. I think he will develop into Stafford-Palmer-Roethlisberger-Ryan kind of quarterback.
Mariota will need more development. He needs to be taught how to take snaps, call plays and drop back. More notably, he doesn’t have much experience reading or adjusting to coverages. They used that fast-tempo offense at Oregon, so he was just running the fast break. Now he’ll need to learn to come to the line, see what the defense is showing, and make the proper adjustments.
This can be learned, and he’s a smart guy, but it will take time. Quarterbacking is a craft, and it takes years to development.
But as I look at Mariota more closely, I will concede that he’s going to make a nice impact as a runner. And that rushing production should come sooner than whatever success Winston has as a passer in Tampa Bay.
If you look at the last 10-15 years, it’s pretty easy to forecast rushing production in the pros. If a guy could run in college and he has the necessary physical skill, then he’ll also be a successful runner in the pros.
Mariota definitely has the physical tools. He ran a 4.52 at the combine, and he ran for over 700 yards at Oregon three years in a row, with 15 TDs his final year. He doesn’t look to run quite as often as guys like Newton and Griffin, but Mariota is definitely in that running class of quarterback.
So I think we can pencil him in for 500-600 yards and 5-6 TDs as a runner in his first year.
Looking at other “running” quarterbacks, all of them put up good rushing production in their first 16 starts as pros.
| RUNNING QUARTERBACKS: first 16 games | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Tim Tebow | 161 | 885 | 5.5 | 9 |
| Robert Griffin III | 125 | 836 | 6.7 | 7 |
| Michael Vick | 115 | 790 | 6.9 | 8 |
| Cam Newton | 126 | 706 | 5.6 | 14 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 98 | 674 | 6.9 | 5 |
| Vince Young | 99 | 624 | 6.3 | 8 |
—Ian Allan