Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Stat regressions

Bad offenses get better; good ones get worse

We must always be careful when drafting a player coming off a huge season. If a guy runs for 2,000-plus yards or throws 45-plus touchdowns, it’s a sure sign that he’s going to tail off. It’s not easy staying on top, and the defenses are also trying.

To illustrate, I’m bringing out not individual numbers but entire teams. Since the NFL went to 32 teams in 2002, there have been 24 instances in which a team scored 450 or more points in a season. Only four of those offenses came back and scored even more points the next year.

In 2014, there were six of these teams, so our general expectation is that at least four of those teams will score fewer points this year. (And my personal guess is that we can start by putting down in ink that Denver, New England and Dallas will score fewer points. Probably Philadelphia next in line.

TEAMS SCORING 450-PLUS POINTS
YearteamPointsNextDiff
2013Denver606482-124
2007New England589410-179
2011Green Bay560433-127
2012New England557444-113
2011New Orleans547461-86
2004Indianapolis522439-83
2010New England518513-5
2011• New England51355744
2009New Orleans510384-126
2006San Diego492412-80
2014Green Bay486??
2003Kansas City484483-1
2004Kansas City483403-80
2014Denver482??
2012• Denver481606125
2014Philadelphia474??
2011Detroit474372-102
2009Minnesota470281-189
2014New England468??
2014Dallas467??
2002• Kansas City46748417
2008• New Orleans46351047
2012New Orleans461414-47
2009Green Bay461388-73
2014Indianapolis458??
2007Dallas455362-93
2009San Diego454441-13
2005Seattle452335-117
2007Indianapolis450377-73
2002Oakland450270-180

Similarly, if an offense plays really poorly, that’s an indication that it almost certain will better. Since the 2002 realignment, 35 teams have scored fewer than 255 points in a season. All but two of those teams came back and scored more the next season.

TEAMS SCORING UNDER 255 POINTS
YearteamPointsNextDiff
2006Oakland168283115
2009St. Louis175289114
2011St. Louis193299106
2010Carolina196406210
2009Oakland197410213
2008Cincinnati204305101
2012Kansas City211430219
2006Tampa Bay211334123
2011• Kansas City212211-1
2002Houston21325542
2002Dallas21728972
2011Cleveland21830284
2007San Francisco219339120
2003Arizona22528459
2007Kansas City22629165
2004Chicago23126029
2008Cleveland23224513
2005Cleveland2322386
2008• St. Louis232175-57
2005New Orleans235413178
2006Cleveland238402164
2005San Francisco23929859
2004Washington240359119
2005NY Jets24031676
2003Buffalo243395152
2011Indianapolis243357114
2003NY Giants24330360
2011Jacksonville24325512
2009Tampa Bay24434197
2009Cleveland24527126
2013Jacksonville2472492
2014Jacksonville249??
2012Arizona250379129
2007Buffalo25233684
2014Oakland253??
2014Tennessee254??
2005Detroit25430551
2003Cleveland25427622

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index