We must always be careful when drafting a player coming off a huge season. If a guy runs for 2,000-plus yards or throws 45-plus touchdowns, it’s a sure sign that he’s going to tail off. It’s not easy staying on top, and the defenses are also trying.
To illustrate, I’m bringing out not individual numbers but entire teams. Since the NFL went to 32 teams in 2002, there have been 24 instances in which a team scored 450 or more points in a season. Only four of those offenses came back and scored even more points the next year.
In 2014, there were six of these teams, so our general expectation is that at least four of those teams will score fewer points this year. (And my personal guess is that we can start by putting down in ink that Denver, New England and Dallas will score fewer points. Probably Philadelphia next in line.
TEAMS SCORING 450-PLUS POINTS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | team | Points | Next | Diff |
2013 | Denver | 606 | 482 | -124 |
2007 | New England | 589 | 410 | -179 |
2011 | Green Bay | 560 | 433 | -127 |
2012 | New England | 557 | 444 | -113 |
2011 | New Orleans | 547 | 461 | -86 |
2004 | Indianapolis | 522 | 439 | -83 |
2010 | New England | 518 | 513 | -5 |
2011 | • New England | 513 | 557 | 44 |
2009 | New Orleans | 510 | 384 | -126 |
2006 | San Diego | 492 | 412 | -80 |
2014 | Green Bay | 486 | ? | ? |
2003 | Kansas City | 484 | 483 | -1 |
2004 | Kansas City | 483 | 403 | -80 |
2014 | Denver | 482 | ? | ? |
2012 | • Denver | 481 | 606 | 125 |
2014 | Philadelphia | 474 | ? | ? |
2011 | Detroit | 474 | 372 | -102 |
2009 | Minnesota | 470 | 281 | -189 |
2014 | New England | 468 | ? | ? |
2014 | Dallas | 467 | ? | ? |
2002 | • Kansas City | 467 | 484 | 17 |
2008 | • New Orleans | 463 | 510 | 47 |
2012 | New Orleans | 461 | 414 | -47 |
2009 | Green Bay | 461 | 388 | -73 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 458 | ? | ? |
2007 | Dallas | 455 | 362 | -93 |
2009 | San Diego | 454 | 441 | -13 |
2005 | Seattle | 452 | 335 | -117 |
2007 | Indianapolis | 450 | 377 | -73 |
2002 | Oakland | 450 | 270 | -180 |
Similarly, if an offense plays really poorly, that’s an indication that it almost certain will better. Since the 2002 realignment, 35 teams have scored fewer than 255 points in a season. All but two of those teams came back and scored more the next season.
TEAMS SCORING UNDER 255 POINTS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | team | Points | Next | Diff |
2006 | Oakland | 168 | 283 | 115 |
2009 | St. Louis | 175 | 289 | 114 |
2011 | St. Louis | 193 | 299 | 106 |
2010 | Carolina | 196 | 406 | 210 |
2009 | Oakland | 197 | 410 | 213 |
2008 | Cincinnati | 204 | 305 | 101 |
2012 | Kansas City | 211 | 430 | 219 |
2006 | Tampa Bay | 211 | 334 | 123 |
2011 | • Kansas City | 212 | 211 | -1 |
2002 | Houston | 213 | 255 | 42 |
2002 | Dallas | 217 | 289 | 72 |
2011 | Cleveland | 218 | 302 | 84 |
2007 | San Francisco | 219 | 339 | 120 |
2003 | Arizona | 225 | 284 | 59 |
2007 | Kansas City | 226 | 291 | 65 |
2004 | Chicago | 231 | 260 | 29 |
2008 | Cleveland | 232 | 245 | 13 |
2005 | Cleveland | 232 | 238 | 6 |
2008 | • St. Louis | 232 | 175 | -57 |
2005 | New Orleans | 235 | 413 | 178 |
2006 | Cleveland | 238 | 402 | 164 |
2005 | San Francisco | 239 | 298 | 59 |
2004 | Washington | 240 | 359 | 119 |
2005 | NY Jets | 240 | 316 | 76 |
2003 | Buffalo | 243 | 395 | 152 |
2011 | Indianapolis | 243 | 357 | 114 |
2003 | NY Giants | 243 | 303 | 60 |
2011 | Jacksonville | 243 | 255 | 12 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 244 | 341 | 97 |
2009 | Cleveland | 245 | 271 | 26 |
2013 | Jacksonville | 247 | 249 | 2 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 249 | ? | ? |
2012 | Arizona | 250 | 379 | 129 |
2007 | Buffalo | 252 | 336 | 84 |
2014 | Oakland | 253 | ? | ? |
2014 | Tennessee | 254 | ? | ? |
2005 | Detroit | 254 | 305 | 51 |
2003 | Cleveland | 254 | 276 | 22 |
—Ian Allan