Do you take a running back because everybody else is taking running backs? Yes and no – and we’ll look at it again in a few days when we have more information. In the first two rounds of the Fanex Analysis Draft, I landed picks on both sides of the fence.
I’ve got the 6th pick in this one. The first five were all running backs. But at pick 1.06, I didn’t hesitate to select Antonio Brown. This is a PPR format, and receivers who catch 100-plus passes are really dominate in this kind of format. Brown has caught 112 and 129 passes in the last two years, catching 5-plus passes in all of those games. So I considered him an easy choice there. Not that he’ll be as good as what he did last year, but Brown in 2014 put up the 2nd-best PPR receiving numbers of all-time, trailing only 1995 Jerry Rice.
It gets a little more complicated at pick 2.07. According to my board, 17 of the next 19 picks should be wide receivers. This is a PPR format, and you not only start three receivers, you also have the ability to start a fourth wide receiver in the flex. With the scoring system being what it is, it’s really just a start-four receiver system.
If Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr. had made it to pick 2.07, I would have started with the unusual WR-WR opener. But those guys are gone, and there’s a lot of parity with these upcoming receivers. The guys up next are good – Nelson, Cobb, Megatron, Sanders, A.J. Green – but they’re not up there with that top 4 tier of wide receiver.
So I am shifting gears and going with a lower-rated player. Jeremy Hill, in my opinion, is right there in value with most of the backs in the top 10. After they made him a starter last year, he ran for 103 yards per game in the final nine weeks of the season, with 6 TDs. They didn’t use him much as a pass catcher, but I think they will this year. I think he’s pretty close to interchangeable with guys like Adrian Peterson, LeVeon Bell (great, but missing 3 games), Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray. Foster is better but can’t be counted on for 16 games. McCoy and Forte trouble me.
So by taking Hill, I give myself a little more flexibility in the upcoming rounds. I’d be nervous about maybe selecting my first running back in the 5th or 6th round.
But I could be wrong. “Stay true to your board,” they say. I’ll check back in a few days, when we’ll be able to reconstruct how the team would be different if I’d just taken Jordy Nelson there at 2.07.
Scoring in this league: 6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards, 1 for every 20 passing yards, 4 for TD passes and 1 for every catch. Start QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, PK, Def and Flex (RB-WR-TE). Each team drafts 20 guys. It’s a best-ball league, with lineups automatically determined by how the players perform. No waivers during the season, and no starting lineups.
The draft is being conducted at MyFantasyLeague.com. Once it’s your turn to pick, the clock is set at 18 hours.
The Fanex Experts League has been around for almost forever. I believe this is the 20th season.
| FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pick | Player | |
| 1.01 | RB | Eddie Lacy |
| 1.02 | RB | Jamaal Charles |
| 1.03 | RB | LeVeon Bell |
| 1.04 | RB | Adrian Peterson |
| 1.05 | RB | C.J. Anderson |
| 1.06 | WR | Antonio Brown |
| 1.07 | RB | Marshawn Lynch |
| 1.08 | TE | Rob Gronkowski |
| 1.09 | WR | Dez Bryant |
| 1.10 | RB | Arian Foster |
| 1.11 | RB | LeSean McCoy |
| 1.12 | RB | Matt Forte |
| 2.01 | WR | Demaryius Thomas |
| 2.02 | RB | Melvin Gordon |
| 2.03 | RB | DeMarco Murray |
| 2.04 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. |
| 2.05 | WR | Julio Jones |
| 2.06 | QB | Andrew Luck |
| 2.07 | RB | Jeremy Hill |
—Ian Allan