If everyone else is selecting running backs, does that mean you should abandon your draft strategy and also select a running back? Now that we’re six rounds into the Fanex Analysis Draft, we can look back in some detail at my own case study.
To simplify the thing, let’s assume I was locked into the premise that I should have 4 wide receivers and 2 running backs after the first six rounds. The way the league is set up, you’re kind of prodded in that direction. It’s PPR scoring, there are 3 starting wide receivers, and there’s also a flex (which also tends to be a wide receiver, since they score more than running backs in this system).
These are the six guys I selected, with their expected projected points.
| IAN'S ACTUAL PICKS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | WR | Antonio Brown | 309 |
| 2.07 | RB | Jeremy Hill | 226 |
| 3.06 | WR | Julian Edelman | 249 |
| 4.07 | RB | C.J. Spiller | 197 |
| 5.06 | WR | Roddy White | 238 |
| 6.07 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 229 |
That’s 1,448 total projected points, and we’ll keep that number in mind.
Suppose, now, that I bought into the theory that running backs are golden and must be prioritized. If that was the case, DeMarco Murray would have been the first round pick. Let’s guess that Jeremy Hill would still be there in the second round, and the first six probably would have looked like this …
| RUNNING BACKS GIVEN PRIORITY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | RB | DeMarco Murray | 246 |
| 2.07 | RB | Jeremy Hill | 226 |
| 3.06 | WR | Julian Edelman | 249 |
| 4.07 | WR | Roddy White | 238 |
| 5.06 | WR | Brandon Marshall | 228 |
| 6.07 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 229 |
The total value of those six guys is 1,417. So to me, it looks like if I had made running backs the all-important position, I would have moved 31 points in the wrong direction.
Recall, however, that I did a little running back bending in this draft. That is, when I selected both Hill and Spiller, there were wide receivers who were higher on my board. So if I had instead stayed true to my board and gone with the wide receivers, let’s see how it would have played out.
| WIDE RECEIVERS GIVEN PRIORITY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | WR | Antonio Brown | 309 |
| 2.07 | WR | Jordy Nelson | 274 |
| 3.06 | WR | Julian Edelman | 249 |
| 4.07 | WR | Roddy White | 238 |
| 5.06 | RB | C.J. Spiller | 197 |
| 6.07 | RB | Joique Bell | 179 |
This package of guys projects out to 1,446, which is 2 less than where I’m at. Plus I’m a little hamstrung at running back – would be forced to squeeze in another few picks at this position even if running backs weren’t the highest rated in my board.
Also not that I’m assuming C.J. Spiller, whom I selected at 4.07, would still be around at 5.06, and I don’t know if that’s the case.
So thus far, I suppose this draft is unfolding in an OK way. Not great, but I’m taking what falls to me, and I kind of like picking in the middle of the order, where there isn’t too long of a gap between picks.
If you want to follow along with this draft, then click here, then go to the “Draft Report” to see the comments of each of the other 11 franchise owners.
Here’s where we’re at as Round 6 comes to a close …
| FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pick | Pos | Player |
| 1.01 | RB | Eddie Lacy |
| 1.02 | RB | Jamaal Charles |
| 1.03 | RB | LeVeon Bell |
| 1.04 | RB | Adrian Peterson |
| 1.05 | RB | C.J. Anderson |
| 1.06 | WR | Antonio Brown |
| 1.07 | RB | Marshawn Lynch |
| 1.08 | TE | Rob Gronkowski |
| 1.09 | WR | Dez Bryant |
| 1.10 | RB | Arian Foster |
| 1.11 | RB | LeSean McCoy |
| 1.12 | RB | Matt Forte |
| 2.01 | WR | Demaryius Thomas |
| 2.02 | RB | Melvin Gordon |
| 2.03 | RB | DeMarco Murray |
| 2.04 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. |
| 2.05 | WR | Julio Jones |
| 2.06 | QB | Andrew Luck |
| 2.07 | RB | Jeremy Hill |
| 2.08 | WR | Randall Cobb |
| 2.09 | WR | Mike Evans |
| 2.10 | WR | Calvin Johnson |
| 2.11 | WR | A.J. Green |
| 2.12 | WR | Jordy Nelson |
| 3.01 | QB | Aaron Rodgers |
| 3.02 | WR | Alshon Jeffery |
| 3.03 | WR | T.Y. Hilton |
| 3.05 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders |
| 3.06 | WR | Julian Edelman |
| 3.07 | RB | Justin Forsett |
| 3.08 | WR | Brandin Cooks |
| 3.09 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins |
| 3.10 | RB | Frank Gore |
| 3.11 | TE | Jimmy Graham |
| 3.12 | RB | Mark Ingram |
| 4.01 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin |
| 4.02 | RB | Todd Gurley |
| 4.03 | WR | Jordan Matthews |
| 4.04 | RB | Alfred Morris |
| 4.05 | RB | Carlos Hyde |
| 4.06 | WR | Keenan Allen |
| 4.07 | RB | C.J. Spiller |
| 4.08 | RB | Latavius Murray |
| 4.09 | WR | Jeremy Maclin |
| 4.10 | RB | Lamar Miller |
| 4.11 | WR | Golden Tate |
| 4.12 | WR | Amari Cooper |
| 5.01 | WR | Sammy Watkins |
| 5.02 | QB | Russell Wilson |
| 5.03 | RB | Joseph Randle |
| 5.04 | RB | T.J. Yeldon |
| 5.05 | RB | Andre Ellington |
| 5.06 | WR | Roddy White |
| 5.07 | WR | Brandon Marshall |
| 5.08 | WR | Andre Johnson |
| 5.09 | RB | Jonathan Stewart |
| 5.10 | TE | Travis Kelce |
| 5.11 | WR | Jarvis Landry |
| 5.12 | TE | Martellus Bennett |
| 6.01 | QB | Peyton Manning |
| 6.02 | QB | Drew Brees |
| 6.03 | WR | Martavis Bryant |
| 6.04 | TE | Greg Olsen |
| 6.06 | WR | DeSean Jackson |
| 6.07 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald |
| 6.08 | WR | Allen Robinson |
| 6.09 | TE | Zach Ertz |
—Ian Allan