Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Year two tight ends

Trends favorable for Ebron, Amaro

In the past we've talked about how rookie tight ends have fared in their first seasons -- not very well. Since Jeremy Shockey in 2002, only one rookie has even reached 600 receiving yards. So no reason to worry about quiet seasons from the likes of Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro.

So how have those same tight ends produced in their second seasons? Pretty well, as the table below indicates. Since 2002, 40 tight ends have had at least 200 receiving yards in their rookie seasons. A year later, 25 of those players (63 percent, so nearly two thirds) have put up more yards. Nearly half of those players (12) essentially doubled their rookie year production.

This doesn't guarantee that Ebron, Amaro, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Richard Rodgers, among others, will be better this season. Several of those players struggled with drops, which they'll need to correct to make an impact. But there's reason to think they'll improve.

Tight ends from the last dozen years in year two, sorted by percentage of improvement (or decline), are presented below.

TIGHT ENDS IN YEAR TWO, 2002-2014
DraftPlayerTeamRec (1)Yds (1)TD (1)Rec (2)Yds (2)TD (2)% change
2010Jimmy GrahamN.O.31356599131011368%
2003Jason Witten Dall.353471879806282%
2003Antonio GatesS.D.2438928196413248%
2004Chris CooleyWash.373146717747246%
2010Rob GronkowskiN.E.425461090132717243%
2006Owen DanielsHou.343525637683218%
2012Coby FleenerInd.262812526084216%
2009Brandon PettigrewDet.303462717224209%
2011Kyle RudolphMinn.262493534939198%
2006Vernon DavisS.F.202653525094192%
2006Tony SchefflerDen.182864495495192%
2007Zach MillerOak.444443567781175%
2010Aaron HernandezN.E.455636799107162%
2004Ben TroupeTenn.333291555304161%
2002Matt SchobelCin.272122243322157%
2013Zach ErtzPhil.364694587023150%
2011Lance KendricksStl.283520425194147%
2007Greg OlsenChi.393912545745147%
2005Bo ScaifeTenn.372732293702136%
2013Luke Willson Sea.202721223623133%
2013Mychal Rivera Oak.384074585344131%
2010Jermaine GreshamCin.524714565966127%
2003Dallas ClarkInd.293401254235124%
2002Randy McMichaelMia.394854495982123%
2003L.J. Smith Phil.273211343775117%
2008Dustin KellerNYJ48535345522298%
2013Jordan ReedWash.45499350465093%
2008John CarlsonSea.55627551574792%
2011Charles ClayMia.16233318212291%
2005Heath MillerPitt.39459634393586%
2005Alex SmithT.B.41367235250368%
2002Doug JolleyOak.32409231250161%
2002Jeremy ShockeyNYG74894248535260%
2008Martellus BennettDall.20283415159056%
2013Tim WrightT.B.54571526259645%
2002Jerramy StevensSea.262523672029%
2006Joe KlopfensteinStl.202261237116%
2013Tyler EifertCin.39445233708%
2012Dwayne AllenInd.45521312014%
2010Tony MoeakiK.C.4755630000%
2014Jace AmaroNYJ383452?
2014Eric EbronDet.252481?
2014Richard RodgersG.B.202252?
2014Austin Seferian-JenkinsT.B.212212?

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index