In the past we've talked about how rookie tight ends have fared in their first seasons -- not very well. Since Jeremy Shockey in 2002, only one rookie has even reached 600 receiving yards. So no reason to worry about quiet seasons from the likes of Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro.
So how have those same tight ends produced in their second seasons? Pretty well, as the table below indicates. Since 2002, 40 tight ends have had at least 200 receiving yards in their rookie seasons. A year later, 25 of those players (63 percent, so nearly two thirds) have put up more yards. Nearly half of those players (12) essentially doubled their rookie year production.
This doesn't guarantee that Ebron, Amaro, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Richard Rodgers, among others, will be better this season. Several of those players struggled with drops, which they'll need to correct to make an impact. But there's reason to think they'll improve.
Tight ends from the last dozen years in year two, sorted by percentage of improvement (or decline), are presented below.
TIGHT ENDS IN YEAR TWO, 2002-2014 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draft | Player | Team | Rec (1) | Yds (1) | TD (1) | Rec (2) | Yds (2) | TD (2) | % change |
2010 | Jimmy Graham | N.O. | 31 | 356 | 5 | 99 | 1310 | 11 | 368% |
2003 | Jason Witten | Dall. | 35 | 347 | 1 | 87 | 980 | 6 | 282% |
2003 | Antonio Gates | S.D. | 24 | 389 | 2 | 81 | 964 | 13 | 248% |
2004 | Chris Cooley | Wash. | 37 | 314 | 6 | 71 | 774 | 7 | 246% |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski | N.E. | 42 | 546 | 10 | 90 | 1327 | 17 | 243% |
2006 | Owen Daniels | Hou. | 34 | 352 | 5 | 63 | 768 | 3 | 218% |
2012 | Coby Fleener | Ind. | 26 | 281 | 2 | 52 | 608 | 4 | 216% |
2009 | Brandon Pettigrew | Det. | 30 | 346 | 2 | 71 | 722 | 4 | 209% |
2011 | Kyle Rudolph | Minn. | 26 | 249 | 3 | 53 | 493 | 9 | 198% |
2006 | Vernon Davis | S.F. | 20 | 265 | 3 | 52 | 509 | 4 | 192% |
2006 | Tony Scheffler | Den. | 18 | 286 | 4 | 49 | 549 | 5 | 192% |
2007 | Zach Miller | Oak. | 44 | 444 | 3 | 56 | 778 | 1 | 175% |
2010 | Aaron Hernandez | N.E. | 45 | 563 | 6 | 79 | 910 | 7 | 162% |
2004 | Ben Troupe | Tenn. | 33 | 329 | 1 | 55 | 530 | 4 | 161% |
2002 | Matt Schobel | Cin. | 27 | 212 | 2 | 24 | 332 | 2 | 157% |
2013 | Zach Ertz | Phil. | 36 | 469 | 4 | 58 | 702 | 3 | 150% |
2011 | Lance Kendricks | Stl. | 28 | 352 | 0 | 42 | 519 | 4 | 147% |
2007 | Greg Olsen | Chi. | 39 | 391 | 2 | 54 | 574 | 5 | 147% |
2005 | Bo Scaife | Tenn. | 37 | 273 | 2 | 29 | 370 | 2 | 136% |
2013 | Luke Willson | Sea. | 20 | 272 | 1 | 22 | 362 | 3 | 133% |
2013 | Mychal Rivera | Oak. | 38 | 407 | 4 | 58 | 534 | 4 | 131% |
2010 | Jermaine Gresham | Cin. | 52 | 471 | 4 | 56 | 596 | 6 | 127% |
2003 | Dallas Clark | Ind. | 29 | 340 | 1 | 25 | 423 | 5 | 124% |
2002 | Randy McMichael | Mia. | 39 | 485 | 4 | 49 | 598 | 2 | 123% |
2003 | L.J. Smith | Phil. | 27 | 321 | 1 | 34 | 377 | 5 | 117% |
2008 | Dustin Keller | NYJ | 48 | 535 | 3 | 45 | 522 | 2 | 98% |
2013 | Jordan Reed | Wash. | 45 | 499 | 3 | 50 | 465 | 0 | 93% |
2008 | John Carlson | Sea. | 55 | 627 | 5 | 51 | 574 | 7 | 92% |
2011 | Charles Clay | Mia. | 16 | 233 | 3 | 18 | 212 | 2 | 91% |
2005 | Heath Miller | Pitt. | 39 | 459 | 6 | 34 | 393 | 5 | 86% |
2005 | Alex Smith | T.B. | 41 | 367 | 2 | 35 | 250 | 3 | 68% |
2002 | Doug Jolley | Oak. | 32 | 409 | 2 | 31 | 250 | 1 | 61% |
2002 | Jeremy Shockey | NYG | 74 | 894 | 2 | 48 | 535 | 2 | 60% |
2008 | Martellus Bennett | Dall. | 20 | 283 | 4 | 15 | 159 | 0 | 56% |
2013 | Tim Wright | T.B. | 54 | 571 | 5 | 26 | 259 | 6 | 45% |
2002 | Jerramy Stevens | Sea. | 26 | 252 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 29% |
2006 | Joe Klopfenstein | Stl. | 20 | 226 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 16% |
2013 | Tyler Eifert | Cin. | 39 | 445 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 8% |
2012 | Dwayne Allen | Ind. | 45 | 521 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 4% |
2010 | Tony Moeaki | K.C. | 47 | 556 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
2014 | Jace Amaro | NYJ | 38 | 345 | 2 | ? | |||
2014 | Eric Ebron | Det. | 25 | 248 | 1 | ? | |||
2014 | Richard Rodgers | G.B. | 20 | 225 | 2 | ? | |||
2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | T.B. | 21 | 221 | 2 | ? | |||
--Andy Richardson