At what point do we give up on an old quarterback? This year Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are available in drafts, and every fantasy owner should have a couple of chances to either select or pass on those guys.
Manning is 39. Brady will be 38 in August. And Brees is 36. What are the odds of all three of these guys being top-10 fantasy quarterbacks?
Brady, of course, also has the suspension issue hanging over him, but we’ll set that aside for now. The Saints may go with a more run-oriented system, hurting Brees’ production. And Manning’s arm seemed to turn into a wet noodle at times late last year.
But quarterback is mostly played between the ears, and these are all first-ballot Hall of Famers.
I ran some numbers on this. In the last 20 years, there have been 20 occasions in which a quarterback older than 35 finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. This is using the scoring system of 6 for touchdowns, 1 for every 10 rushing yards, 4 for TD passes and 1 for every TD pass. (In the chart below, I’m not even including the rushing stats because most of these guys don’t run all the much).
Of that group of successful older quarterbacks, one (Bobby Hebert) retired the next year. Seven again finished as a top-4 quarterbacks, while seven didn’t even make the top 20. The other five all finished between 6th and 13th.
So where does that leave us with these old guys? Everyone seems to agree that Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are the top quarterbacks, but is one of these old guys the No. 3 quarterback on the board?
| OLD QUARTERBACKS (1995-2014) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Avg | Yards | TD | Int | Rnk |
| 1998 | Warren Moon, Sea. | 42 | 1,632 | 11 | 8 | 24 |
| 2010 | Brett Favre, Minn. | 41 | 2,509 | 11 | 19 | 26 |
| 1996 | Warren Moon, Minn. | 40 | 1,610 | 7 | 9 | 32 |
| 2008 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 39 | 3,472 | 22 | 22 | 11 |
| 1995 | Warren Moon, Minn. | 39 | 4,228 | 33 | 14 | 3 |
| 1999 | Steve Young, S.F. | 38 | 446 | 3 | 4 | 42 |
| 2003 | Rich Gannon, Oak. | 38 | 1,274 | 6 | 4 | 34 |
| 2000 | Doug Flutie, Buff. | 38 | 1,700 | 8 | 3 | 27 |
| 1999 | Dan Marino, Mia. | 38 | 2,448 | 12 | 17 | 21 |
| 2009 | Kurt Warner, Ariz. | 38 | 3,753 | 26 | 14 | 13 |
| 1998 | John Elway, Den. | 38 | 2,806 | 22 | 10 | 12 |
| 2007 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 38 | 4,155 | 28 | 15 | 6 |
| 2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 38 | 4,727 | 39 | 15 | 3 |
| 1997 | Bobby Hebert, Atl. | 37 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2006 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 37 | 3,885 | 18 | 18 | 8 |
| 1997 | John Elway, Den. | 37 | 3,635 | 27 | 11 | 4 |
| 2008 | Kurt Warner, Ariz. | 37 | 4,583 | 30 | 14 | 4 |
| 2002 | Rich Gannon, Oak. | 37 | 4,689 | 26 | 10 | 2 |
| 1998 | Steve Young, S.F. | 37 | 4,170 | 36 | 12 | 1 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 37 | 5,477 | 55 | 10 | 1 |
(On the ages on these guys, it's their age at the end of the season.)
—Ian Allan