The Fanex Auction is coming to a close, and it provides evidence that allocating players in an auction (rather than a draft) is the more efficient way to go. I participated in a draft, recall, with a lot of these same guys back in June. Now we can compare those same results to what’s going down in the auction. The scoring rules are essentially the same, and 11 of the 12 owners are the same.
The Fanex Analysis Draft occurred in June. It’s got the wrinkle where no waiver moves are allowed during the season. It’s a best-ball league. So that affects the selections some. It makes it logical to select backups at kicker, defense and tight end. And you tend to want to get guys who’ll be durable and at least playing during the regular season. No games in this league – it’s just total points, with best-ball lineups.
The Fanex Auction is more like a traditional league. Owners will make trades and waiver moves along the way, and they’ll submit a lineup each week.
These leagues are different than most fantasy leagues in that they have three starting wide receivers. They also have a flex player (RB-WR-TE). With the league using PPR scoring, this enhances the value of the wide receivers. I think many owners in these leagues don’t tend to look at the numbers closely enough, which year in and year out tends to result in me selecting more wide receivers. A lot of the owners (I think) remain locked in the traditional fantasy thinking that they’re in a league with 2 RBs and 2 WR and no flex, where the running backs are a lot more valuable.
Anyway, whatever. I’ve now got a couple of teams. And I thought it would be interesting to compare my two lineups. Specifically, I took the player values I used for the auction and then reverse engineered them back into the June draft. In theory, the team with the better talent (using my projections) should be more valuable. And that’s exactly how it turned out. My June (draft) draft is “worth” about $294, while my auction team clocks out at $325. That’s starting with a payroll of $200, so I’m very optimistic about both clubs. I don’t know that I’ve ever assembled an auction team worth over 60 percent more than its initial value.
Lots of similar names on these two rosters – 11 of the 20 players. And I’ve got those guys in bold.
VALUES OF IAN'S FANEX TEAMS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Value | Auction League | .. | Value | Draft League |
$4 | PK Mason Crosby | .. | $1 | PK Josh Brown |
$19 | QB Cam Newton | .. | $1 | PK Nick Novak |
$17 | QB Ben Roethlisberger | .. | $19 | QB Cam Newton |
$12 | QB Philip Rivers | .. | $16 | QB Eli Manning |
$37 | RB Jeremy Hill | .. | $37 | RB Jeremy Hill |
$25 | RB C.J. Spiller | .. | $25 | RB C.J. Spiller |
$14 | RB Devonta Freeman | .. | $14 | RB Devonta Freeman |
$4 | RB Dan Herron | .. | $5 | RB Doug Martin |
$4 | RB James White | .. | $4 | RB Dan Herron |
$9 | TE Julius Thomas | .. | $1 | RB Terrance West |
$7 | TE Josh Hill | .. | $7 | TE Josh Hill |
$5 | TE Vernon Davis | .. | $5 | TE Vernon Davis |
$1 | TE Eric Ebron | .. | $57 | WR Antonio Brown |
$44 | WR Randall Cobb | .. | $35 | WR Julian Edelman |
$40 | WR Emmanuel Sanders | .. | $30 | WR Roddy White |
$30 | WR Roddy White | .. | $28 | WR Larry Fitzgerald |
$28 | WR Larry Fitzgerald | .. | $1 | WR Dwayne Bowe |
$20 | WR Eric Decker | .. | $1 | WR Jaelen Strong |
$3 | ST Kansas City | .. | $3 | ST Kansas City |
$2 | ST St. Louis | .. | $2 | ST St. Louis |
$325 | TOTAL | .. | $294 | TOTAL |
This auction isn’t over, but enough guys have been selected that we can see where it’s headed. I’ve got my 20 guys, and a few other owners have finished as well. There are a handful of guys who spent big on a few players who are now filling out their rosters with mostly $1.00 players. But all of the good players are spoken for.
The values, in my opinion, are all at wide receiver. On my board, in fact, the top 26 wide receivers all went for less than what I felt they were worth. Obviously, this is a case where I’m simply valuing that position different than the other owners. I’m not sure what their thinking is. My guess is that many of them aren’t properly accounting for the value of PPR scoring, three starting wide receivers and a flex position (so, essentially four starting wide receivers).
FANEX AUCTION -- WIDE RECEIVERS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Value | Player | Price | Gain | Loss |
$57.34 | Antonio Brown | $48 | $9 | -- |
$52.52 | Julio Jones | $40 | $13 | -- |
$51.13 | Odell Beckham Jr. | $45 | $6 | -- |
$48.58 | Dez Bryant | $47 | $2 | -- |
$45.04 | Jordy Nelson | $32 | $13 | -- |
$43.70 | Randall Cobb | $29 | $15 | -- |
$42.78 | Demaryius Thomas | $39 | $4 | -- |
$42.41 | Calvin Johnson | $32 | $10 | -- |
$40.38 | Emmanuel Sanders | $25 | $15 | -- |
$38.88 | A.J. Green | $29 | $10 | -- |
$35.44 | Julian Edelman | $26 | $9 | -- |
$33.67 | T.Y. Hilton | $25 | $9 | -- |
$32.09 | Brandin Cooks | $26 | $6 | -- |
$30.26 | Roddy White | $14 | $16 | -- |
$29.42 | Alshon Jeffery | $28 | $1 | -- |
$28.81 | Mike Evans | $27 | $2 | -- |
$27.97 | Larry Fitzgerald | $10 | $18 | -- |
$27.57 | Brandon Marshall | $14 | $14 | -- |
$25.74 | Kelvin Benjamin | $20 | $6 | -- |
$25.31 | DeAndre Hopkins | $22 | $3 | -- |
$24.45 | Brandon LaFell | $10 | $14 | -- |
$24.39 | Golden Tate | $18 | $6 | -- |
$20.57 | Steve Smith Sr. | $13 | $8 | -- |
$19.99 | Eric Decker | $4 | $16 | -- |
$17.72 | Keenan Allen | $17 | $1 | -- |
$17.13 | Vincent Jackson | $7 | $10 | -- |
$14.76 | Jordan Matthews | $21 | -- | $6 |
$14.37 | Anquan Boldin | $5 | $9 | -- |
$13.61 | Jarvis Landry | $10 | $4 | -- |
$12.91 | Amari Cooper | $13 | -- | -- |
$11.91 | Michael Floyd | $2 | $10 | -- |
$11.61 | DeSean Jackson | $12 | -- | -- |
$11.12 | Sammy Watkins | $20 | -- | $9 |
$10.14 | Allen Robinson | $8 | $2 | -- |
$9.71 | Nelson Agholor | $12 | -- | $2 |
$9.31 | Charles Johnson | $11 | -- | $2 |
$9.18 | Rueben Randle | $6 | $3 | -- |
$8.26 | Mike Wallace | $3 | $5 | -- |
$8.01 | Kendall Wright | $5 | $3 | -- |
$7.87 | Andre Johnson | $21 | -- | $13 |
Here’s my wrap-up of how the running back position played out. In my opinion, there was a lot of wasted money here (especially with running backs in the teens and 20s).
The running back position includes the two most overpaid players, I thought. I thought both Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy went for over $20 more than they should have.
FANEX AUCTION -- RUNNING BACKS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Value | Player | Price | Gain | Loss |
$48.74 | Eddie Lacy | $49 | -- | -- |
$47.08 | Jamaal Charles | $50 | -- | $3 |
$44.52 | LeVeon Bell | $47 | -- | $2 |
$43.19 | C.J. Anderson | $39 | $4 | -- |
$42.65 | DeMarco Murray | $40 | $3 | -- |
$39.40 | Arian Foster | $35 | $4 | -- |
$38.83 | Marshawn Lynch | $38 | $1 | -- |
$38.28 | Adrian Peterson | $48 | -- | $10 |
$36.75 | Jeremy Hill | $30 | $7 | -- |
$31.90 | Melvin Gordon | $30 | $2 | -- |
$29.78 | Matt Forte | $51 | -- | $21 |
$26.05 | Justin Forsett | $30 | -- | $4 |
$25.34 | C.J. Spiller | $20 | $5 | -- |
$20.70 | Mark Ingram | $19 | $2 | -- |
$19.15 | Alfred Morris | $16 | $3 | -- |
$18.85 | LeSean McCoy | $43 | -- | $24 |
$18.32 | Joique Bell | $15 | $3 | -- |
$17.83 | Lamar Miller | $15 | $3 | -- |
$17.04 | Giovani Bernard | $14 | $3 | -- |
$13.53 | Devonta Freeman | $5 | $9 | -- |
$11.66 | Andre Ellington | $18 | -- | $6 |
$10.54 | Joseph Randle | $12 | -- | $1 |
$10.22 | Shane Vereen | $9 | $1 | -- |
$9.85 | Frank Gore | $21 | -- | $11 |
$9.44 | Jonathan Stewart | $15 | -- | $6 |
$5.79 | Latavius Murray | $15 | -- | $9 |
$5.36 | Darren Sproles | $3 | $2 | -- |
$5.10 | Darren McFadden | $2 | $3 | -- |
$5.04 | Doug Martin | $9 | -- | $4 |
$4.54 | Todd Gurley | $14 | -- | $9 |
$4.49 | Carlos Hyde | $11 | -- | $7 |
$4.32 | Dan Herron | $1 | $3 | -- |
$4.28 | Chris Ivory | $5 | -- | $1 |
$3.82 | James White | $7 | -- | $3 |
$3.43 | Tevin Coleman | $17 | -- | $14 |
$3.36 | Tre Mason | $8 | -- | $5 |
$2.87 | T.J. Yeldon | $14 | -- | $11 |
$2.47 | Danny Woodhead | $7 | -- | $5 |
$2.11 | LeGarrette Blount | $7 | -- | $5 |
$1.00 | Charles Sims | $3 | -- | $2 |
Here are the quarterback results. Rodgers and Luck were the first two, of course, and they were both pretty nice buys, I thought. They went for $5-$10 under what I felt they were worth. Then there were a bunch of guys in the teens.
I would have preferred to carry two quarterbacks, and I like the pair of Newton and Roethlisberger (both for $5 under what I felt they were worth). But it was late in the auction, and an owner was holding onto his money, trying to pick up deals. I didn’t want to let him get Philip Rivers for $7, so I bid $8. I figured there was no way the guy wouldn’t go to $9 or $10 (since he had the money). But he left we with Rivers with $8. This is fine. Newton or Roethlisberger might get hurt, or I might trade one of these quarterbacks later in the season.
FANEX AUCTION -- QUARTERBACKS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Value | Player | Price | Gain | Loss |
$40.72 | Aaron Rodgers | $31 | $10 | -- |
$39.71 | Andrew Luck | $35 | $5 | -- |
$22.06 | Drew Brees | $19 | $3 | -- |
$20.62 | Peyton Manning | $23 | -- | $2 |
$19.31 | Cam Newton | $14 | $5 | -- |
$18.58 | Matt Ryan | $18 | $1 | -- |
$16.56 | Ben Roethlisberger | $12 | $5 | -- |
$16.44 | Russell Wilson | $21 | -- | $5 |
$16.34 | Eli Manning | $14 | $2 | -- |
$13.15 | Joe Flacco | $10 | $3 | -- |
$12.72 | Tony Romo | $15 | -- | $2 |
$12.45 | Matthew Stafford | $15 | -- | $3 |
$12.24 | Philip Rivers | $8 | $4 | -- |
$12.06 | Tom Brady | $17 | -- | $5 |
$11.34 | Ryan Tannehill | $11 | -- | -- |
$4.53 | Colin Kaepernick | $8 | -- | $3 |
$2.48 | Carson Palmer | $5 | -- | $3 |
$1.00 | Alex Smith | $1 | -- | -- |
$1.00 | Andy Dalton | $5 | -- | $4 |
$1.00 | Sam Bradford | $6 | -- | $5 |
$1.00 | Teddy Bridgewater | $8 | -- | $7 |
$1.00 | Blake Bortles | $1 | -- | -- |
$1.00 | Derek Carr | $4 | -- | $3 |
$1.00 | Marcus Mariota | $1 | -- | -- |
$1.00 | Jameis Winston | $2 | -- | $1 |
I drafted four tight ends. This was not my intention. But I don’t have a reliable, franchise-type guy. So I’ll take Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Josh Hill and Eric Ebron into September. Between the lot of them, I’m hoping one will emerge as a solid producer. At least one of these players (maybe two) will be released before the third week of the regular season.
FANEX AUCTION -- TIGHT ENDS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Value | Player | Price | Gain | Loss |
$46.15 | Rob Gronkowski | $40 | $6 | -- |
$22.32 | Greg Olsen | $17 | $5 | -- |
$18.83 | Jimmy Graham | $26 | -- | $7 |
$16.36 | Travis Kelce | $21 | -- | $5 |
$14.48 | Jason Witten | $8 | $6 | -- |
$9.54 | Martellus Bennett | $15 | -- | $5 |
$8.80 | Julius Thomas | $6 | $3 | -- |
$7.98 | Delanie Walker | $4 | $4 | -- |
$7.39 | Josh Hill | $2 | $5 | -- |
$5.05 | Vernon Davis | $3 | $2 | -- |
$4.37 | Zach Ertz | $6 | -- | $2 |
$3.76 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | $1 | $3 | -- |
$2.02 | Dwayne Allen | $3 | -- | $1 |
$1.00 | Heath Miller | $4 | -- | $3 |
$1.00 | Charles Clay | $2 | -- | $1 |
$1.00 | Jordan Reed | $2 | -- | $1 |
$1.00 | Owen Daniels | $2 | -- | $1 |
$1.00 | Larry Donnell | $2 | -- | $1 |
$1.00 | Antonio Gates | $8 | -- | $7 |
$1.00 | Jordan Cameron | $2 | -- | $1 |
The home pages of the leagues are both at MyFantasyLeague.com. You can go there if you want to see the results of the Fanex Analysis Draft or the soon-to-be-complete results of the Fanex Auction League.
—Ian Allan