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Factoid

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Jets could be sitting on the Sleeper of the Year at quarterback

Call me crazy, but I actually have some interest in Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s got some ability to sling it, he’s got a great pair of receivers at his disposal (Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker) and he has a passer-friendly coordinator. Fitzpatrick was effective under Chan Gailey in Buffalo.

Better than you might realize.

Fitzpatrick threw 24 TDs in each of his final two seasons in Buffalo. In the 2011-12 season, 25 quarterbacks started over half of the time, and only nine of them averaged more TD passes per game than Fitzpatrick.

Really.

TD PASSES PER GAME (2011-12)
PlayerStTDPer G
Drew Brees32892.78
Aaron Rodgers31842.71
Tom Brady32732.28
Matt Ryan32611.91
Matthew Stafford32611.91
Tony Romo32591.84
Eli Manning32551.72
Ben Roethlisberger28471.68
Philip Rivers32531.66
Ryan Fitzpatrick32481.50
Andy Dalton32471.47
Carson Palmer24351.46
Matt Schaub26371.42
Josh Freeman31431.39
Joe Flacco32421.31
Michael Vick23301.30
Jay Cutler25321.28
Mark Sanchez31391.26
Cam Newton32401.25
Alex Smith25301.20
Christian Ponder26311.19
Matt Hasselbeck21231.10
Sam Bradford26271.04
Matt Cassel1715.88
Blaine Gabbert2421.88

Fitzpatrick forces too many passes (he threw more TDs than anyone in those seasons) but that only reinforces his value as a fantasy quarterback. Unlike Alex Smith, who’s painfully cautious, Fitzpatrick is a grip-it-and-rip-it quarterback who’ll try to jam balls into tight coverages, giving his wide receivers more chances to make plays.

He’s also simply better than many give him credit for. Think of that nice 6-TD game he had last year against the Titans. He did that without a great cast around him.

Also note that Fitzpatrick averaged almost 8 yards per pass attempt last year. That’s better than everyone in the league except the three Rs – Romo, Roethlisberger and Rodgers. We give running backs and wide receivers credit for the yards per attempt stat; why not quarterbacks too? And in that area, he was better last year than Brady, Luck, Wilson, Brees and both Mannings.

I’m not saying Fitzpatrick is an elite quarterback. But he’s a veteran guy who’s been around and gotten better over the years. With the situation he’s in, I think it’s reasonable that he might exceed a lot of expectations this year, maybe making a run at top-15 numbers at this position. Maybe.

2014 QUARTERBACKS -- YARDS PER ATTEMPT
PlayerAttCompPctYdsYPA
Tony Romo, Dall.43530469.9%3,7058.52
Aaron Rodgers, G.B.52034165.6%4,3818.43
Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.60840867.1%4,9528.14
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Hou.31219763.1%2,4837.96
Peyton Manning, Den.59739566.2%4,7277.92
Mark Sanchez, Phil.30919864.1%2,4187.83
Andrew Luck, Ind.61638061.7%4,7617.73
Russell Wilson, Sea.45228563.1%3,4757.69
Brian Hoyer, Clev.43824255.3%3,3267.59
Philip Rivers, S.D.57037966.5%4,2867.52
Drew Brees, N.O.65945669.2%4,9527.51
Matt Ryan, Atl.62841566.1%4,6947.47
Eli Manning, NYG60137963.1%4,4107.34
Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.40225964.4%2,9197.26
Joe Flacco, Balt.55434462.1%3,9867.19
Matthew Stafford, Det.60236360.3%4,2577.07
Andy Dalton, Cin.48130964.2%3,3987.06
Tom Brady, N.E.58237364.1%4,1097.06
Colin Kaepernick, S.F.47828960.5%3,3697.05
Alex Smith, K.C.46430365.3%3,2657.04
Cam Newton, Car.44826258.5%3,1276.98
Nick Foles, Phil.31118659.8%2,1636.95
Geno Smith, NYJ36721959.7%2,5256.88
Ryan Tannehill, Mia.59039266.4%4,0456.86
Jay Cutler, Chi.56137066.0%3,8126.80
Kyle Orton, Buff.44728764.2%3,0186.75
Josh McCown, T.B.32718456.3%2,2066.75
Blake Bortles, Jac.47528058.9%2,9086.12
Derek Carr, Oak.59934858.1%3,2705.46

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index